We are entering the stage where ideology and education about sustainability and living within carrying capacity will be augmented by the reality of identifiable consequences of our overshoot. External consequences like the peaking and decline of below ground energy and commodity resources, above ground environmental degradation of our climate, soils, fisheries and climate will have a profound effect on our culture.
2009 is the year when we start to feel it.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2156 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:12 pm Post subject: Geopolitical predictions
Ok people, I am going to stick my neck out here and make a few predictions. Going out 50 years.
This current Russian-Georgian conflict is a non-runner. The Russians will capitulate before the might of the US/UK economic machine and will in due course be absorbed into its confines. As will China, India and Latin America.
Iran...and the muslim world....will reach an accord with the West in due course, and I suspect, will turn to the Turkish model of state and church as an example. I also believe that Turkey will relinquish all aspirations for joining the EU and eventually head up an economic bloc founded on Islamic fuedal principles of wealth allocation and debt.
Incidentally, the Western and Islamic blocs will enjoy a period of co-operation as will all the global blocs in the Orient, South Asia and Latin America.
However, events globally will be pre-empted by loss of faith in technology which will only come about when it is realised that the current system:
Cannot invent its way out of a resourcing crisis (oil's energy profile cannot be profitably replicated in other words);
Cannot escape the confines of this planet for resources elsewhere;
Is in fact reducing the quality of life on this planet climatically, as a consequence of its spread;
Is inextricably unequal in the manner in which it utilises and distributes the common resources of this planet.
That point will only come, I suspect 50 years down the road when the system has spread sufficiently widely across the globe for there to be saturation demand, a point at which the crunch climatically and resource wise will be inexcapably evident.
Any thoughts? _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 5076 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:19 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
What will production/consumption levels look like in 50 years and what will the global population be at that point? _________________ Obese people have feelings too.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2156 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
frankthetank wrote:
What will production/consumption levels look like in 50 years and what will the global population be at that point?
This will be the tipping point I suspect. The point at which the wealth potential, now contained in the emerging economies and clearly driving the current growth juggernaut, will be fully exhausted (I estimate that both India and China at the very least have a wealth potential of 50 years in terms of reaching parallel Western development standards). To the degree that further resourcing of an already compromised planet, population and climate wise, confronted as it is with the limits of its technology, is no longer fundable.
This is the point, I believe, at which overpopulation, saturation development, a wealth deficit and climate all converge for the perfect storm. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2156 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:19 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
nobodypanic wrote:
americandream wrote:
Any thoughts?
yeah... how's that 'sticking your neck out'? none of us will likely even be alive to call you on it in fifty years!
how about you try your crystal ball on something closer--say five years out?
5 years out and we will have grown accustomed to pricier commodities, smaller cars, ethanol mixes in our fuel, the odd nuke station, wind power, collectively subdued but occasionally jihading individual muslims, euphoric market movements on the back of stunning Chinese growth and equally bullish trends in the rest of the capital world.
Peak oil wise, the day of reckoning will be postponed but not cancelled as we discover the joys of underpriced Oriental hybrids all the way from Japan to China, the western housing market will be all but owned by Sovereign Funds as we move from being house owners to renters, Russia will be the outermost satellite of aspiring super Europe, Latin America will be well integrated into global capitalism, India will be the software hub of the world, Africa will discover it's resourcing potential and all will be well with the world.
It will be business as usual as we once again convince ourselves that human ingenuity won the day. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2156 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
As I have said before on this Forum, we have yet to see capitalism's Grande Finale. There is an awful lot of wealth yet to be created before the curtain is called on this show. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Jun 15, 2008 Posts: 63 Location: Somewhere in the cold north
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
americandream wrote:
As I have said before on this Forum, we have yet to see capitalism's Grande Finale. There is an awful lot of wealth yet to be created before the curtain is called on this show.
No offense but I think you're full of crap. You start your 50(!) years prediction by saying that the US and UK will crush its competitors by its economic might. I mean come on... both countries are on a fast decline thanks to the housing bubble and general financial mismanagement. When they have fully recovered in say 50 years… they will be on par with Zimbabwe at best. While China and most of Asia will be a powerhouse of wealth and power. And as for capitalism grand finale... the only "wealth" created these days in the west is inflation and only functions to drive the middle class into poverty. The fatcats will of course move away to greener lands while the American tax payer stays in the US holding the bill. How’s that for a geopolitical prediction.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2156 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
miles392 wrote:
americandream wrote:
As I have said before on this Forum, we have yet to see capitalism's Grande Finale. There is an awful lot of wealth yet to be created before the curtain is called on this show.
No offense but I think you're full of crap. You start your 50(!) years prediction by saying that the US and UK will crush its competitors by its economic might. I mean come on... both countries are on a fast decline thanks to the housing bubble and general financial mismanagement. When they have fully recovered in say 50 years… they will be on par with Zimbabwe at best. While China and most of Asia will be a powerhouse of wealth and power. And as for capitalism grand finale... the only "wealth" created these days in the west is inflation and only functions to drive the middle class into poverty. The fatcats will of course move away to greener lands while the American tax payer stays in the US holding the bill. How’s that for a geopolitical prediction.
Fast decline.....of the commoners in the UK and US into debt and consumerist servitude, yes. But as for the cross border global elite, these are early days as they condition the global herd into even more established patterns of consumerism. Why would the UK and the US (elites) hold prime position in the global pecking order of the elites?
For one, capital in its modern form is the creation of London historically. It has reached maturity in terms of creativity in the US but the two are tied by the umbilical cord of history and likewise all other nations defer to London and New York when it comes to extending the creativity of capital. Some of the finest securitising lawyers, in fact almost all, reside in one or the other of these two cities.
China excels at supplying the labour force for creating the primary wealth base. That base will then be magnified in London or New York using a whole raft of mechanisms that have emerged or have yet to emerge. Apply the same logic to Russia, India and the Latin Americans. Non-Anglo Europe goes where its Anglo partners lead although I give the Germans some credit for being the martial arm of Europe and therefore I tend to observe them.
The fat cats will go nowhere other than to dominate the fertile and most appealing areas of this planet. The workers will beaver away at their grateful toil, all the while consuming the latest toy to appear on the radar. Come the point of saturated global demand of resourcing, and capitalism's great achilles heel will be exposed, dealing it the final death blow. That is a while off yet however for those doomers eagerly awaiting some action. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2156 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
It's no coincidence that Russian oligarchs base themselves in London. Give a good English speaking securitisation lawyer with a solid common law background, a vehicle worth one dollar, and he will extract a further nine from it. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Oct 27, 2006 Posts: 828 Location: Soviet Canada
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
These "In the Year 2525" threads can be fun.
Minus the spoil-sports, of course.
Hmmm...my thoughts.
I can definitely see some kind of amalgamation of Muslim countries into a sort of bloc that resembles the Turkish model. A mix of east and west, so to speak. We see it with Jordan now. Lebanon would probably fall into that paradigm next, if allowed.
I think the Iranians would opt out of something like that, and align with Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and India. They seem to be natural partners, and of a similar ethnic, and cultural mien.
Speaking of the West...I would venture that capitalism (individual, as well as corporate)will become kind of socially unacceptable. Kind of like smoking. I think resource depletion, resource wars, as well as environmental degradation will change people's view of "Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness" (or filthy lucre).
History lessons will look upon the 19th, 20th, and early 21st centuries as we now look upon feudalism, monarchies, and mercantilism.
As anachronisms. _________________ "Some people are like Slinky's. They don't serve a useful purpose, but they still bring a smile to your face when you push them down the stairs."
Joined: Oct 27, 2006 Posts: 828 Location: Soviet Canada
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:05 pm Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
Colorado-Valley wrote:
Tolkien gave us the vision of The Shire, and we would probably be smart to aspire to it if we want to survive with a quality of life.
Capitalism looks a lot like Mordor, with a very painful crash coming soon.
It might make an interesting thesis (I have no idea what discipline, though) to look at The Lord of the Rings through the lens of economic models, and political leanings.
Caveat:Tolkien despised allegory, and said so publicly, so if anyone was to try this they would probably get an D-.
The Shire vs. Mordor.
Or Morgoth vs. The Valar.
Capitalism vs. (???????) whatever the Shire is? Some kind of benevolent feudalism? Socialism?
Just ramblin' on here. _________________ "Some people are like Slinky's. They don't serve a useful purpose, but they still bring a smile to your face when you push them down the stairs."
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1866 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 6:46 am Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
miles392 wrote:
You start your 50(!) years prediction by saying that the US and UK will crush its competitors by its economic might. I mean come on... both countries are on a fast decline thanks to the housing bubble and general financial mismanagement. When they have fully recovered in say 50 years… they will be on par with Zimbabwe at best.
I think that's rather extreme. Personally, I think in the next 20 years, we're going to witness the unravelling of the Anglo-American system that's run things since the British Empire folded up its tents after Suez. The torch is being passed to other rising, more energetic economic engines. That's not the say the US and UK will end up like Zimbabwe. I don't see that happening. But I think they're going to have to get used to being much further down on the list of world economies than they are now. Fourth, six, something like that. We'll start seeing people following elections in India, and maybe (one day), even in China. "Do you think Li Wen's policies towards European trade are better than Wu Yin's?" It won't be a bad thing if we can get over the idea that everything has to be in English, and made according to standards comfortable to us. If we can adapt a little, the way we've always insisted everyone else has to for our sake, we'll do fine. If we can't, it's going to be very hard on us. _________________
Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 9:14 am Post subject: Re: Geopolitical predictions
Couldn't disagree more with the OP. Oil will be coming down in price below 100. We will see the rise of Russia as a major player while the US continues to descend. We will have McCain in office and go to war with Iran in 2009. _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
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