House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

DocHoliday · Coal Joined: Jun 27, 2008 Posts: 1

I am new to the forum but have been reading it for weeks.

This is a particularly disturbing Bill.

If you think Oil is expensive now, wait till this blockade goes into affect. Can you say $200+ for a barrel of oil? This just blows me away to think that we are even considering doing something like this.

Why does the U.S. Govenment seem to think we are a Global Police force? We are already approaching 1 trillion dollar bill for the Irag and Afgahnstan war. My Social Security Retirement is already probably gone because of it. And now we are going to fight a 3 front war? With what Military? We already don't have enough soliders to go much longer with the mess we are in.

I know people from Iran. They are good people just like us. Most of their people don't want the current regime. If there is any hope of another more moderate group taking control in Iran, then this will extinguish all hope of them coming to power and just make America more hated in the region.

I am not anti-Israel, but enough is enough.

anagami

idiom

A war with Iran will leave America in control of a huge swathe of the Middle East running from Afghanistan to Iraq.

With that size Islamic population under American occupation, with that amount of Oil under Ameircan control, the balance of global power destabilse quickly.

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2966

idiom

It is a serious amount of land to police. It leave America with pretty much only a nuclear option to respond to anything else. (Taiwan, Korean border, Russian expansion...)

yull

ozkrenske

Well Yull,

There has been more or less constant speculation of a US attack on Iran from about one minute after it's being declared a member of the Axis of Evil, back in 2002. I think it is a Political, Military and Economic Non starter to any slightly rational government.

I personally don't think any form of attack is possible at the moment without completely breaking the US military. Any attempt to occupy and control will see a Iraq times 6, but with lot's of nice mountainous terrain as well. If someone tries to carry out an airstrike. Well sorry airstrikes are fully fledged acts of war, not iffy like blockades, they are war itself. As such airstrikes will almost certainly ramp up very quickly into full fledged mass warfare. You know the million man army crossing the border kind. Iran does have this massive demographic overpopulation of 16-25 year olds that it more or less can not employ or feed well, so losing a few million while dragging the great satan down, will be sad but not the worst thing that could happen. Iran did partake of a 6 year WW1 style conflict in the 80's that saw millions die. Their morale did not crack, they were effectively embargoed into peace. The US is not going to deal with 5-10 000 casualties well.

The cost effects of the war will be massive. how about a trillion or two supplementary for the the first month or so sound. The US dollar will almost collapse from that alone. Gold could be at 2000 an ounce in a day.

Now, if somehow George does manage to start a war, I doubt he will survive (possibly literally, he will have hndreds of well trained martyrs relatives gunning for him.) politically, a impeachmant could well be possible. There is absolutely no way he is going to manage a UN resolution this time, to justify an attack. In fact, I am almost certain that large chunks of the world will declare him a war criminal, possibly very legitimately. That rules out travel as an Ex president, as many countries will be required by treaty to arrest him for extradition. Technically that may be a legal requirement in the US too, of course one that will be ignored by the government.

If a war does somehow kick off, Iran will take careful note of where the attacks are based from because hosting a offensive base in wartime is pretty well equivalent to taking part. So large numbers of tactical rockets are going to start to reign down on persian gulf nations probably shutting in and disrupting 3 times the current oil exports of Iran. 10-15 million barrels a day off the market will see 300 + a barrel oil in a trading session. Well outside of the US it will, because the US would have trouble keeping up with 20% per day limits on trade. Massive bulk purchasing and hording will start on the first day, and fuel could be over 6 dollars a gallon in the US in about two days. It would then climb relentlessely to ten and possibly even higher if the war continues beyond a week or two.

Even with the US airstrike approach things are a little iffy for the US airforce, they are pretty stretched right now. Airdominance is not a foregone conclusion either. The US airforce has serious issues with it's F15's, and will have some seriously modern anti aircraft defences to take on as well as a second string airforce. So maybe the US could see some seriously damaged local airbases (from rocket attack, or even being ordered out by locals) and therefore a ground war with lessened air support, and even possible firepower equality. Not a situation the US has had for a very long time, in fact I think, WW1, early Pacific theatre WW2 and early Korean War are the examples. They are also very damaging examples.

Anyone who wants a war in Iran (with Iraq support running at 20 odd %) is in the serious minority in the US and after the losses mount, it is safe to say the party of the president that starts the war is dead politically for a long time. It may even be replaced by a new party.

Now there are other complications as well. Venezuela will apparently stop sales to the US, as could other OPEC nations. China and Russia will both be very miffed to say the least. What if China flags some tankers and sends them in (Just like the US did in the 80's.), will the US sink neutral vessels? Maybe Russia will stop supplies, except for those nations who sink the boot into the US. Meanwhile Russia will be rolling equipment to the border and handing it over, to be used in live fire tests.

As well the US will have a lot of indirect warfare on their hands. Truck bombs in US cities, mortar attacks on US refineries, US flagged ships being assaulted all over the world, US airliners being shot up everywhere. 911 may be a fore taste of what a war carried out by a not insignificant nation could do. It is potentially a very fearful scenario. Face it, I can imagine some pretty horrible crap to do asymetrically and I don't think about it full time. I am sure that the Iranian General Staff has several bright young people working on exactly that stuff, with potentially thousands of available martyrs.

I really don't see a US attack, unless the US can guarantee the stopping of several thousand ballistic missiles from crossing the gulf to the local governments, at the very least.

yull

I agree with almost all that ozkrenske, but since when has the US acted rationally? Iraq was always going to be a disaster and they went for that. They also show no regard for international law - the Iraq war was illegal, so is Guantanamo Bay and countless other things they've been doing lately. It doesn't make sense, but lots of things don't make sense yet they are done.

Also, how would Iran react if it was just Israel who attacked? Their prime minister has said than an attack is inevitable and they have already rehearsed it with that operation over Greece and Southern Europe earlier this month. Iranians know that the US are massively backing Israel, could Iran retaliate against the US just for an Israeli attack? Perhaps Iran would react to the US by cutting oil exports, attacking ships, blocking the Straits of Hormuz. Who knows.

Perhaps then the US could use these actions as justification for an attack. Then there is the question on how the Russians, Chinese, Arabs, Europe etc react.

I have always been sceptical of an Iran attack but with recent rhetoric and actions nothing would surprise me anymore.

bkwillia · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 20, 2007 Posts: 70

OPEC is not trading US dollars for Euros or Yen, they are trading dollars for oil futures. This is painfully obvious.

The Euro has stalled, the Yen is in a trading range, and even the emerging Canadian petrodollar is well off its highs. Meanwhile, oil futures are soaring all the way into 2016.

This naval blockade and sanctions against Iran are merely a distraction to keep the media from focusing on the real issue of peaking supply. The US has long lost control of the oil market, as has OPEC. Their best bet is to prolong the spread of the peak oil contagion until war breaks out. Then, we can just blame prices on war.

pedalling_faster · Intermediate Crude Joined: Dec 10, 2005 Posts: 840

MrBean · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 26, 2004 Posts: 1144

jbrovont · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 16, 2006 Posts: 663

War with Iran will leave the US with nothing. No oil, thanks to their alliances, a destroyed currency, and an inability to wage war on credit. This is by far the most stupid idea I've ever seen come out of Washington, second even to the congress supporting King George in his faux(fox?) war on terrorism after he attacked NY.

Any armed conflict with Iran will decimate your standard of living. If you can't understand that, you need to read more. Smile

SILENTTODD · Last edited by SILENTTODD on Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:44 am; edited 1 time in total

DocHoliday, Welcome! (Been a number of places the original walked as he was one of my favorite people in the old west. Only
Wyatt Earp was more so!),

Totally agree with your assessment for a first post. Let's hope our president is not as stupid as I believe he might be!
_________________
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan

idiom

The thing is Bush doesn't have to sell it to anyone! Congress is going to ask him to go to war.

IndigoMoon