How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
VMarcHart wrote:
yesplease wrote:
VMarcHart wrote:
medicvet wrote:
So what I want to know is HOW FAST is this projected to happen? Faster than we can drill new wells on the west and east coasts? Faster than we can put windmills and solar panels everywhere?
Yes, way faster. It takes 3 years to install a wind turbine generator. I do that for a living.
Do you mean construct/fabricate/transport/install, or just install like you said?
Yes, the entire cycle, from the day you "think" you found the site to Commercial Operation Date. Even if you doubled the tax incentive, eliminated interconnection hurdles, eliminated permits, mandated sharing of wind data, etc, it would still take 2 years. But that's so far fetched.
Revi wrote:
The average house uses around 800 gallons around here. That would be over $8000 just to heat the house. Fuggedaboudit!
People will heat their houses to 60F, bundle up, insulate more/better, do the snow-bird, give up their 300-channel TV, soda, cup cakes, etc. Life is a bitch, isn't it?
Agreed. But think of the job losses that will ensue when a culture that is dependent on cheap energy, has to limp along on much less. That seems like the biggest part of the immediate problem to me.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 2:59 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
threadbear wrote:
Agreed. But think of the job losses that will ensue when a culture dependent on cheap energy, has to limp along on much less. That seems like the biggest part of the immediate problem to me.
Agreed as well. But I don't think it we'll see an economy in smoldering ruins, especially if this increase comes over 2-4 years.
Joined: Jun 02, 2008 Posts: 251 Location: Midwest City, Oklahoma
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 3:03 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
VMarcHart wrote:
People will heat their houses to 60F, bundle up, insulate more/better, do the snow-bird, give up their 300-channel TV, soda, cup cakes, etc. Life is a bitch, isn't it?
Funny you should mention those. My wife and I gave up those some two years ago. No more soda, just water with a lemon thanks. 300 channels? Phoooeeeyyy, who needs em, we just have the most basic rudimntary cable service now. So long as I can get my FOX News fix, I am happy. Cup cakes make you fat, something I definitely am not. Snow-bird? I am not going to join the old-fogeys at Quartzsite Arizona ever. What a bunch of RUDE-ASS folks they are! Had the "pleasure" of meeting some when I used to drive a 18-wheeler. They can keep their hell-hole in the Arizona desert.
Currently we drive two old 98 Fords that are long ago paid for, so it is not worth a trade-in to car payments yet.
We also have two paid-for motorcycles. But the Oklahoma weather prevents riding them much. Rain, thunderstorms, heavy winds, etc. It is suppossed to rain 3 days this week, so I will drive the Ranger pick-up. I will ride the other two if the wind is less than 25-35 mph.
Not really sure I see motorcycles and scooters being a year-round thing here. The last couple of years the winters have consisted of heavy ice-storms. It was hard enough driving a 4-wheeler on that stuff!
I mentioned to my wife that I wanted to quit my 40 mile round trip job and get one closer to home even though it pays less, that financially it would be the same cause I could walk or ride a bicycle. She said "Don't you dare! She is one of those who thinks all this talk on this site is just "Doom and gloom talk, everything will somehow be alright!" Personally I think she is afraid because our daughter just had her first baby, she does not want to admit that his future is not looking to good right now. She wants them to have a second, I said one is enough! She does not want me talking about it to her family or friends.
Me, I am kind really concerned right about now. Since watching all those oil fields burn in Kuwait in 1991, I have always thought oil was going to be our Achilles' heel!
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 3:14 pm Post subject: Re: Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins
cbxer55 wrote:
Funny you should mention those. My wife and I gave up those some two years ago. No more soda, just water with a lemon thanks. 300 channels? Phoooeeeyyy, who needs em, we just have the most basic rudimntary cable service now. So long as I can get my FOX News fix, I am happy. Cup cakes make you fat, something I definitely am not.
That's a sensate approach to peak oil; start trimming the fat, have less or no kids, etc. We too live under our means; one car, walk everywhere, no kids, 2 jobs, no debt, 1 TV, lots of good books, etc.
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