How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Food manufacturers in Mexico have promised to freeze prices on many of their most commonly consumed products until the end of the year .
President Felipe Calderon presented the measure as an important contribution to ameliorating the local effects of the global food crisis.
"This reflects a commitment by Mexican entrepreneurs with the country," he said. "It will positively and directly help the finances of millions of Mexicans."
The 150 products on the list, worked out in negotiations with the government, include tinned refried beans and tomatoes, fruit juices, ketchup, and canned chillies. Non-processed foods are not included.
Unions welcomed the move, although they pointed out that the prices of many of the products listed have already increased enormously this year. Cooking oil, for example, has risen by more than 50% and will be capped only until the end of August under the agreement.
The length of the list is also misleading as some products have been included several times, in different sizes and presentations.
So this fall when it is time to harvest the corn and other products will Mexico allow that food to be exported to the US (for ethanol or food) where food processors will be willing to pay more because they can charge more? Or will the faultering of the free trade in food gain strength as some nations stop raising prices and (conceivably) need to pull out of the world food market to support that policy? _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
Corn futures fell for a second day Friday on concerns that corn demand for ethanol production could drop sharply as falling profits for producers are likely to force nearly three quarters of ethanol plants to shut down.
[...]
As a result of the rapid margin deterioration, nearly 120 small to midsize ethanol producers "will be shut down over the next few months," said David Driscoll, an analyst at Citigroup, in a written comments released Thursday. There are currently about 160 ethanol plants in the United States, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.
The possible massive shutdown in ethanol plants could reduce corn demand by 750 million to 1.9 billion bushels a year, Driscoll estimated. That's more than half of this year's corn demand for ethanol use the USDA had expected earlier this month.
[...]
If there is a massive failure of the corn crop this year, it is mostly all those ethanol plants which will suffer, not so much as your Doritos. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Corn futures fell for a second day Friday on concerns that corn demand for ethanol production could drop sharply as falling profits for producers are likely to force nearly three quarters of ethanol plants to shut down.
[...]
As a result of the rapid margin deterioration, nearly 120 small to midsize ethanol producers "will be shut down over the next few months," said David Driscoll, an analyst at Citigroup, in a written comments released Thursday. There are currently about 160 ethanol plants in the United States, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.
The possible massive shutdown in ethanol plants could reduce corn demand by 750 million to 1.9 billion bushels a year, Driscoll estimated. That's more than half of this year's corn demand for ethanol use the USDA had expected earlier this month.
[...]
If there is a massive failure of the corn crop this year, it is mostly all those ethanol plants which will suffer, not so much as your Doritos.
Do your good news posts in the oil threads take into account the loss of ethanol going into the gasoline blend? I mean if we stop using 10% ethanol gas doesn't that mean that we would need to come up with like 8% more gasoline (making a deduction for the mpg loss due to the addition of ethanol in the first place)? _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Do your good news posts in the oil threads take into account the loss of ethanol going into the gasoline blend? I mean if we stop using 10% ethanol gas doesn't that mean that we would need to come up with like 8% more gasoline (making a deduction for the mpg loss due to the addition of ethanol in the first place)?
Perhaps - but perhaps not. Don't forget, US gasoline consumption is down and the Saudis are raising production. And if that weren't enough, Thunder Horse has started production and should be fully online by year's end. So we might not even need so much extra gasoline as a result of a cut-off of ethanol supplies, and even if we do, there's plenty of oil kickin' around. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OilFinder2 wrote:
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Do your good news posts in the oil threads take into account the loss of ethanol going into the gasoline blend? I mean if we stop using 10% ethanol gas doesn't that mean that we would need to come up with like 8% more gasoline (making a deduction for the mpg loss due to the addition of ethanol in the first place)?
You are not telling the whole story. You forgot to mention the fact that world oil consumption continues to grow every year. Any decrease in US crude oil consumption quickly gets sucked up by the rest of the world:
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Drifter wrote:
As usual, you are not telling the whole story. World oil consumption continues to grow. Any decrease in US oil consumption quickly gets sucked up by the rest of the world:
And as usual, you do not pay attention to what I was responding to. I was asked:
Quote:
Do your good news posts in the oil threads take into account the loss of ethanol going into the gasoline blend? I mean if we stop using 10% ethanol gas doesn't that mean that we would need to come up with like 8% more gasoline (making a deduction for the mpg loss due to the addition of ethanol in the first place)?
Which was entirely in regard to the situation in the US. The entire world does not put 10% ethanol into their gasoline.
As for the particulars of your comment, you are simply wrong:
--> LINK <--
Quote:
The Paris-based IEA, which advises 27 oil-importing nations on energy policy, expects global oil demand to increase by 800,000 barrels a day in 2008, compared with growth of 1 million barrels a day last year, Birol said.
If the rest of the world sucked up whatever oil the US did not consume, oil consumption would be increasing at the same or greater rate than it did last year. But it isn't. In fact, your own link says:
Quote:
Preliminary data indicate global oil consumption rose by about 630,000 bbl/d during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-earlier levels, much lower than the 1.0-million-bbl/d growth expected in the previous Outlook.
Thus, your own link proves your own claim wrong. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OilFinder2 wrote:
plenty of oil kickin' around.
What the hell does "plenty" mean? I keep hearing that word reverberate in the context of debunking peak oil. Obviously it doesn't mean it's enough oil to lower gas prices.
-->thread split by wisconsin_cur<---- _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
mos6507 wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
plenty of oil kickin' around.
What the hell does "plenty" mean? I keep hearing that word reverberate in the context of debunking peak oil. Obviously it doesn't mean it's enough oil to lower gas prices.
-->thread split by wisconsin_cur<----
In this case, I was using the word "plenty" to indicate that there are sufficient other sources of oil in case a shortfall of ethanol production forces the US to replace ethanol with oil.
However, because of declining US gasoline demand, that might not even be necessary. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:31 pm Post subject: Re: Decline in Ethanol Use, its impacts of food and fuel
OF2, there's no point of even arguing with you anymore. You always ignore rising prices and ever growing world demand for food, oil, and metals. You only see what you want to see and ignore the rest, cherry picking the info you post. You are now on my ignore list, so don't even bother responding.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:49 pm Post subject: Re: Decline in Ethanol Use, its impacts of food and fuel
Drifter wrote:
OF2, there's no point of even arguing with you anymore. You always ignore rising prices and ever growing world demand for food, oil, and metals. You only see what you want to see and ignore the rest, cherry picking the info you post. You are now on my ignore list, so don't even bother responding.
You have no clue. If I am ignoring world demand for these things, why do I keep showing charts and statistics that production of these things is also rising? I mean, there wouldn't be much point in me going out of my way to show increasing production if I didn't think demand was rising, would there. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 5:40 am Post subject: Re: Decline in Ethanol Use, its impacts of food and fuel
Drifter wrote:
OF2, there's no point of even arguing with you anymore. You always ignore rising prices and ever growing world demand for food, oil, and metals. You only see what you want to see and ignore the rest, cherry picking the info you post. You are now on my ignore list, so don't even bother responding.
Joined: Nov 18, 2004 Posts: 1025 Location: Central Texas
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:32 am Post subject: Re: Decline in Ethanol Use, its impacts of food and fuel
Folks,
One of the primary reasons ethanol is used in gasoline is to increase the oxygen content of the fuel in liu of methyl tert-butyl ether, MTBE, not necessarily to increase the actual amount of fuel. MTBE was phased out since it was contaminating water supplies.
So the question is, will the EPA allow MTBE to be used again instead of EtOH, or will another oxygenate be used? _________________ About my avatar: A glassy sphere and a mineral particle magnified 1500 times using a scanning electron microscope.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2616 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Decline in Ethanol Use, its impacts of food and fuel
PeakOiler wrote:
Folks,
One of the primary reasons ethanol is used in gasoline is to increase the oxygen content of the fuel in liu of methyl tert-butyl ether, MTBE, not necessarily to increase the actual amount of fuel. MTBE was phased out since it was contaminating water supplies.
So the question is, will the EPA allow MTBE to be used again instead of EtOH, or will another oxygenate be used?
Are there other options?
What would be the other options?
What is in the non-ethanol gasoline one pump over?
How do they make MTBE? _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2616 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:39 am Post subject: Re: Decline in Ethanol Use, its impacts of food and fuel
To answer my own question:
Quote:
MTBE is manufactured via the chemical reaction of methanol and isobutylene. Methanol is derived from natural gas, and isobutylene is made from crude oil or natural gas, thus MTBE, as used in motor gasoline, is a fossil fuel. In the United States, it was produced in very large quantities (more than 200,000 barrels per day in the United States in 1999) during its use as a fuel additive. Due to widespread releases of MTBE-containing gasoline from Underground Storage Tanks all over the US, various jurisdictions banned the use of MTBE and production was reduced. MTBE contamination in drinking water aquifers is a serious concern in many states (the most famous cases are Lake Tahoe and Santa Monica). By late 2006, most American gasoline retailers had ceased using MTBE as an oxygenate, and accordingly, US production had declined. Similarly, lack of growth or even decline of MTBE production has been seen in Western Europe. This is not due to environmental concerns; on the contrary, it is because the alternative ethanol-derived ether ETBE has been given more favorable tax treatment. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world, which account for about a half of 2004 production, the use of MTBE will continue and even grow.
Link _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
MTBE is manufactured via the chemical reaction of methanol and isobutylene. Methanol is derived from natural gas, and isobutylene is made from crude oil or natural gas, thus MTBE, as used in motor gasoline, is a fossil fuel.
Other options? Increase the fuel/air ratio and burn the fuel leaner, (like is done in the Honda Insight), but that would require adding a NOx scrubber to the exhaust system, since a leaner mixture produces more of the NOx compounds.
Another option is to use less fuel. _________________ About my avatar: A glassy sphere and a mineral particle magnified 1500 times using a scanning electron microscope.
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