For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Will our economy survive continuous Oil/Energy decline?
Yes
13%
[ 36 ]
No
64%
[ 167 ]
maybe (see comments)
13%
[ 35 ]
I don't know
7%
[ 20 ]
Total Votes : 258
Author
Message
yesplease Fission
Joined: Oct 03, 2006 Posts: 2078
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
I'm just saying...
<rant>The average passenger vehicle is something like 15% efficient, if we calculate efficiency as the ability to move a few tons of vehicle and an order of magnitude less human/stuff. According to this paradigm a SUV is more efficient than a corvette with the same engine even though the corvette gets better mileage, because, by virtue of gasoline engine fundamentals, the more an engine works the more efficient it tends to be. Of course, doubling consumption to increase efficiency by 20% still means the driver is using ~60% more fuel to do the same thing, but we won't mention that.
Otoh, if we calculate efficiency as the energy cost of moving a human or few and some stuff, the average passenger vehicle is quiet possibly one of the most inefficient uses of energy in recorded history.</rant> _________________
Joined: Oct 04, 2007 Posts: 209 Location: North-East USA
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
capitalism itself imo cannot survive permanently declining energy, thus every capitalist country in the world is as of now doomed to political instability and revolt
economic growth is nothing more than a representation of available energy, as is population growth, both go up in times of energy abundance and both come crashing down in times of energy shortage; everything stems from energy, civilization itself it a result of a surplus of energy (originally from the surplus of food that we acquired when first taking up agriculture)
this is why a world of permanently declining energy is so scary to the people that cling onto the status quo for security; the status quo cannot survive such an event, and with the current world population im questioning whether civilization itself can make it through this in any coherent form
im just rambling because i dont feel like looking up figures right now but lets just say that an economic depression in the US is the best you can hope for at this point _________________ Tyler_JC:
"I love how every conversation on this website, given enough time, will turn into a discussion of cannibalism."
““Life is on the wire…the rest is just waiting””
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 498 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
anarky321 wrote:
capitalism itself imo cannot survive permanently declining energy
There isn't a specie which can exist with that. It cannot survive permanently declining energy - and it means food.
Not only economic system (whatever you call it) but also civilization. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:30 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
cube's explanation of "energy efficiency"
Suppose consuming 1 unit of energy creates 10 units of economic wealth.
As the energy crunch hits we'll eventually be forced to only use half as much == 0.5 units of energy.
Can 0.5 units of energy create 10 units of wealth through efficiency gains?
If yes then why didn't we start with 1 unit of energy to create 20 units of wealth?
Society always wishes to maximize wealth so the fact that we didn't start off with a 1 to 20 ratio is proof that it cannot be done.
Therefore it is impossible to maintain economic wealth with diminishing energy consumption.
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:17 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
Cube, since when does society maximize its wealth? Quite the opposite. We often witness society consuming its wealth. Sometimes in an unsustainable manner.
When energy is cheap and abundant there is no economic need to improve efficiency. There is no pay-off to do so. Let someone else do it and then reap the benefits as a free rider. It is scarcity and economic need that drives improvements in efficiency.
Creating wealth stems from combining land, labor, natural resources, capital, technical know-how and intangible assets into something of greater value. Something that someone else wants or needs and is able to pay for.
That may mean using more energy, but as energy declines the remaining energy becomes more valuable. Therefore, wealth can be generated by being able to produce renewable energy as other sources of non-renewable decline and become more expensive.
Producing food has become a low value-added, high volume industry. As energy becomes more expensive and prices for food, fuel and fertilizer rises in tandem that dynamic may change. There may be plenty of wealth created by growing food again. Or by owning the land on which it is grown as labor relative to energy will become cheaper.
What is sure that declining conventional sources of energy will change the economic relative-value between the remaining land, labor, natural resources, capital, technical know-how and intangible assets creating winner and losers. Probably resulting in lower living standards with more losers than winners. That scarcity and economic need will in turn drive innovation as well as the search for substitutes and alternatives. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Jun 03, 2004 Posts: 127 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:39 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
Without energy there is no economy, it's as simple as that. The world economy is 100% dependent on energy, it always has been and it always will be, as without energy nothing happens.
The economy can grow for a short period with declining energy but it will be only temporary. Less energy = less economy, in the long run.
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:56 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
yull wrote:
Without energy there is no economy, it's as simple as that. The world economy is 100% dependent on energy, it always has been and it always will be, as without energy nothing happens.
The economy can grow for a short period with declining energy but it will be only temporary. Less energy = less economy, in the long run.
So your point of view is that we will have no energy and therefore no economy in the future? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Jun 03, 2004 Posts: 127 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:01 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
MrBill wrote:
yull wrote:
Without energy there is no economy, it's as simple as that. The world economy is 100% dependent on energy, it always has been and it always will be, as without energy nothing happens.
The economy can grow for a short period with declining energy but it will be only temporary. Less energy = less economy, in the long run.
So your point of view is that we will have no energy and therefore no economy in the future?
No, there will always be energy, even if it's just human muscle energy. My point is that our economy is 100% dependent on energy and if energy decreases then it follows that our economy will decrease too.
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
yull wrote:
MrBill wrote:
yull wrote:
Without energy there is no economy, it's as simple as that. The world economy is 100% dependent on energy, it always has been and it always will be, as without energy nothing happens.
The economy can grow for a short period with declining energy but it will be only temporary. Less energy = less economy, in the long run.
So your point of view is that we will have no energy and therefore no economy in the future?
No, there will always be energy, even if it's just human muscle energy. My point is that our economy is 100% dependent on energy and if energy decreases then it follows that our economy will decrease too.
Like anything our economy is 100% dependent on energy, but not a specific amount. Also it doesn't deal solely w/ physical goods so the amount of energy per item can be high and/or low. In short, a decrease in energy does not always imply a decrease in economy. It can, but it isn't absolute. _________________
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 3:19 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
BIC Syndrome - bureaucracy, incompetence and corruption - African-style claims another victim.
Quote:
"It's all very nice having the cheapest electricity in the world, but that's irrelevant if you don't have any electricity at all."
Proceeding with the smelter — at a time when mines are threatening mass layoffs because of unreliable power supply, and voters can't plug in the kettle for a cup of tea — would be a risky political move by government, with national elections coming early next year.
While the terms of Alcan's deal with Eskom have not been made public, it is widely understood here that the power company guaranteed the smelter electricity at a price far below even South Africa's legendarily cheap power rates.
All of this leads to a few crucial questions: How did the South African government — the continental leader in governance, the guardian of the economy that produces a third of sub-Saharan Africa's economic output — mess up so badly? How did the growth-obsessed government of Thabo Mbeki it fail to notice the country didn't have enough electricity to keep toasters running, let alone to fuel an aluminum smelter, one of the most power-hungry forms of industry on earth?
The bauxite and alumina used in the smelter would have to be imported, regardless, and if the energy source is cheaper elsewhere, then Alcan has little reason to stay in South Africa, Prof. Eberhard said.
"We will no longer be the cheapest provider of electricity in the world," he said. "The marginal price of new power is much higher for us than, say, gas in Qatar or hydro in Congo, and we can't afford to give them a subsidized price."
Think globally, act globally! ; - )) _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 3:44 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
yesplease wrote:
In short, a decrease in energy does not always imply a decrease in economy. It can, but it isn't absolute.
Maybe not for certain sectors of the economy but do you know of any full economy (where all services, food and goods consumed by that economy's members are produced within that economy) where it has grown for an extended time without an increase in energy?
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 5:34 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
Yes, as measured by GDP output per energy input. As well OECD energy consumption delcined in the past 12-months, while the economy(s) posted positive economic growth. That growth cannot survive in the absence of energy inputs, but it is clear that we can do more with less. Cutting out recreational uses of energy does not materially affect production except in the services sector. One could plausibly argue that most of the service sector consumes wealth rather than creates it. That is not to say it is not important. Somewhere I read that we need just 15% of the working population to cater to all of our material needs. The rest of the 85% are taken up in service related industries out of necessity. The economy expands to include workers. They are not necessarily needed to keep it running. My job included.
UPDATE: although bottling water creates jobs, income and therefore consumption and economic growth I would hesitate to call it wealth creation. more like wealth consumption.
Quote:
Plastic waste
Statistics Canada's report also noted that the amount of plastic waste generated by the consumption of bottled water has "raised concerns," since potable tap water is available in most Canadian communities.
According to the Container Recycling Institute (CRI), a U.S. nonprofit organization that promotes policies and programs to increase the recycling of beverage containers, more than 80 per cent of plastic water bottles in the U.S. end up being incinerated or sent to landfills. No figures were available for Canada.
Between 2002 and 2007, world consumption of bottled water jumped by 7.6 per cent per year, from 130.95 billion litres to 188.8 billion litres, according to the Beverage Marketing Corporation. The United States consumes the most bottled water on the planet (33.4 billion litres), while residents of the United Arab Emirates consume the most bottled water per capita (259.7 litres per person per year).
In the latest figures available for Canada, the Beverage Marketing Corporation says that In 2005, Canadians spent $652.7 million on bottled water. It adds that Canadians consumed a total of 1.9 billion litres of bottled water in 2005 — 60 litres per person — which represented a 20 per cent jump over 2004.
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 10:13 am Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
In a short answer, yes, you can have economic growth with declining energy.
And not just in short-term but also in long-term, even if OECD consumption had fallen last 12 months, some countries are performing flat or falling energy consumption patterns for about a decade:
- Denmark and Germany had been reducing slightly their energy consumption since mid 90's, and their pace it's accelerating right now amazingly. New Zealand as well.
- The UK is been almost flat since the end of 90's in a period of strong economic growth (no wonder that in a weaker economic growth it's energy consumpion felt near 4% last year).
- Japan was almost flat as well since the beggining of the century with a weak economic growth (but about 4% unemployment rate). Right now, it is starting to reduce its oil and energy consumption with little damage to their economy I guess.
And I bet this year we are going to see more broad consumption reductions in almost all OECD countries (unless we see 80$/barrel in the second half of 2008 ).
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: Economic growth with declining energy?
isgota wrote:
In a short answer, yes, you can have economic growth with declining energy.
And not just in short-term but also in long-term, even if OECD consumption had fallen last 12 months, some countries are performing flat or falling energy consumption patterns for about a decade:
- Denmark and Germany had been reducing slightly their energy consumption since mid 90's, and their pace it's accelerating right now amazingly. New Zealand as well.
- The UK is been almost flat since the end of 90's in a period of strong economic growth (no wonder that in a weaker economic growth it's energy consumpion felt near 4% last year).
- Japan was almost flat as well since the beggining of the century with a weak economic growth (but about 4% unemployment rate). Right now, it is starting to reduce its oil and energy consumption with little damage to their economy I guess.
And I bet this year we are going to see more broad consumption reductions in almost all OECD countries (unless we see 80$/barrel in the second half of 2008 ).
Best regards.
You are citing examples of economies embedded in a world economy where the manufacturing industries have largely been exported by the countries you cite. So the global economy is, perhaps, the only example of a full economy right now. And energy consumption is increasing globally, at about 2% per year.
Perhaps you'd like to consider whether the countries you mention could cut themselves off from the rest of the world, tomorrow, and continue growing their economies with declining energy use.
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