Another Record ($143.67)

joewp · Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 3:25 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)

Up $2.50 down $3.00 and closes up a few cents.

Just another day on the oil markets near the peak.
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

chuck6877 · Intermediate Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 528

Technically we're also at the top of a trading channel that should provide resistance.

This chart is courtesy of Clive Maund from his recent editorial found here:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund051408.html

Also we're stretched out really far above the 200 day moving average. 1.39 times the 200 day moving average has been pretty much the limit for gold and oil the last several years.

THESE CHARTS TAKE A WHILE TO LOAD, but they're worth waiting for:

We're due for a pull back to the 200 day/40 week moving average which is rising very quickly, a little consolidation, and then on our way to $200 oil and beyond....

I think the lowest we'll see will be $100 personally. Maybe trade sideways till the 200dma rises to $100 and then begin the next monster leg up? I think this correction will last 2-3 months before the price will bottom and then rise again....

We very well could go to $115 like you said joewp and trade sideways for a while on the 50 day moving average which is also a big support point, allowing the moving averages to rise and then oil could go up to new highs again.... This is probably less likely than going to $100 and the 200 day moving average though because this run up has been so massive and there's that long term channel top we're up against right now....

Don't ever doubt that TECHNICAL ANALYSIS has a lot to do with the trading of oil because it does......

Chuck

careinke · Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)

I agree with Chuck we should be seeing a technical pull back. Wave theory, candlestick reading, P& F charts, and about three other VooDoo stock prediction methods all point toward a near term downward price movement.

More VooDoo Graphs

I'm envisioning a pullback to around $107 - $102. People will think the worst is over.... then we get hit upside the head with even higher prices.

Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)

Armageddon · Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:45 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)

I don't see a pull back heading into peak driving season in the US. It is every US citizens God given right to drive, drive, drive . Remember Cheney's slogan ? " The American way of life is not negotiable". * end sarcasm *

joewp · Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)

I agree that it could be time for a pullback, that's why I'm only using straddles right now instead of long calls. One good early hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will blow all that technical analysis out of the water, though. Laughing

chuck6877 · Intermediate Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 528

idomar · Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 4:46 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)

I'm not a chartist, neither do i pretend to know what a lot of 'technical' analysis means, however I have a question for you, excuse the preamble:

I can understand how charting and technical analysis may be useful for stocks relating to corporations on the various stock exchanges, these corporations do not report on a weekly basis the the performance of their companies and of their suppliers from all over the world.

People can choose to shop at different stores, buy from different suppliers and sell in different markets. Rumour may push up the value of a stock into 'overbought' or 'oversold' and towards or away from various moving average bands.

Now for the question(s):

Does the oil market really behave in the same way?

Can tecnical analysis on the oil market really be trusted when there are so many external factors that could affect it.

i.e Analyst 1 says that 'Oil is overbought at the moment and we are expecting a pull back'

meteorologist 1 says there is a hurricane forming in the GOM

Newscaster 1 says there is another bombing in Nigeria

Politician 1 says, we are happy with the price of oil

OPEC says the market is currently well supplied

HELP!!

ohcomeon · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 10, 2006 Posts: 122 Location: USA

127.11 on MSNBC right now

olekriri · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 22, 2008 Posts: 33

$127.40

olekriri · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 22, 2008 Posts: 33

$127.43 is the new record. Now it's going down again...

olekriri · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 22, 2008 Posts: 33

$127.79

chuck6877 · Intermediate Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 528

jeffvail · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 15, 2004 Posts: 138

My concerns with the application of standard technical indicators to the present oil market: show me a previous market in any commodity where supply is declining amidst highly inelastic demand and no viable substitute. I can't think of one off the top of my head, but assuming one exists, technical indicators should be weeded out if they didn't perform in that market. Assuming, of course, that technical trading has any merits based in actual causality, not just trader psychology. My hunch is that technical trading is valid, but only because it is a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby traders move the market because they act in the belief that there is "resistance" at a certain point, etc.

darren · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 07, 2005 Posts: 133

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3259 Location: Maine

The price seems to be holding. Goldman Sachs says that the price will be averaging $148 a barrel:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aBgHsyAv_E9Q&refer=energy

They say that the price isn't going down because the front month contracts are so strong that they won't let it sag.

It's getting interesting.
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