How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1599 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 3:25 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
Up $2.50 down $3.00 and closes up a few cents.
Just another day on the oil markets near the peak. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Also we're stretched out really far above the 200 day moving average. 1.39 times the 200 day moving average has been pretty much the limit for gold and oil the last several years.
THESE CHARTS TAKE A WHILE TO LOAD, but they're worth waiting for:
We're due for a pull back to the 200 day/40 week moving average which is rising very quickly, a little consolidation, and then on our way to $200 oil and beyond....
I think the lowest we'll see will be $100 personally. Maybe trade sideways till the 200dma rises to $100 and then begin the next monster leg up? I think this correction will last 2-3 months before the price will bottom and then rise again....
We very well could go to $115 like you said joewp and trade sideways for a while on the 50 day moving average which is also a big support point, allowing the moving averages to rise and then oil could go up to new highs again.... This is probably less likely than going to $100 and the 200 day moving average though because this run up has been so massive and there's that long term channel top we're up against right now....
Don't ever doubt that TECHNICAL ANALYSIS has a lot to do with the trading of oil because it does......
Chuck
Last edited by chuck6877 on Thu May 15, 2008 9:36 pm; edited 5 times in total
Joined: Jan 01, 2007 Posts: 207 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
I agree with Chuck we should be seeing a technical pull back. Wave theory, candlestick reading, P& F charts, and about three other VooDoo stock prediction methods all point toward a near term downward price movement.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 2820 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:45 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
I don't see a pull back heading into peak driving season in the US. It is every US citizens God given right to drive, drive, drive . Remember Cheney's slogan ? " The American way of life is not negotiable". * end sarcasm *
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1599 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
I agree that it could be time for a pullback, that's why I'm only using straddles right now instead of long calls. One good early hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will blow all that technical analysis out of the water, though.
Armageddon wrote:
I don't see a pull back heading into peak driving season in the US. It is every US citizens God given right to drive, drive, drive .
Any pullback will be quick, like a week or so, followed by another spike. These technical trading types have to see the "overbought" condition remedied before they'll jump back in. Technical analysis works only because so many believe it does and they follow it. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:24 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
joewp wrote:
Technical analysis works only because so many believe it does and they follow it.
Joewp,
I agree completely with your analysis on technical analysis .
Armageddon,
I agree we might not see a pullback in the gasoline price, but definitely in the oil price. Remember last year we saw $3.30 gasoline with $70 oil!!??
That's when all the yahoos were saying that the ONLY reason prices were high is because we don't have enough refineries! Blame the liberal treehuggers!
Ready for some technical analysis for gasoline futures? Look at these charts first:
Look at the WEEKLY chart. Look at the major advances. The highest they ran up were right around 1.42 times the 200 day/40 week moving averages.
Things tend to repeat in technical analysis...
What would 1.42 times the current 200 day moving average be?
About $3.48 for gasoline futures!!
This would mean after you add in the approximate 60 extra cents to find the price at the pump, we could have a national average of about $4.08 for gasoline this summer and yes even if oil drops in price!!
Bottom line, gasoline could go up a lot further. It's far from overbought.
Joined: Mar 20, 2007 Posts: 167 Location: There is no hope for the future
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 4:46 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
I'm not a chartist, neither do i pretend to know what a lot of 'technical' analysis means, however I have a question for you, excuse the preamble:
I can understand how charting and technical analysis may be useful for stocks relating to corporations on the various stock exchanges, these corporations do not report on a weekly basis the the performance of their companies and of their suppliers from all over the world.
People can choose to shop at different stores, buy from different suppliers and sell in different markets. Rumour may push up the value of a stock into 'overbought' or 'oversold' and towards or away from various moving average bands.
Now for the question(s):
Does the oil market really behave in the same way?
Can tecnical analysis on the oil market really be trusted when there are so many external factors that could affect it.
i.e Analyst 1 says that 'Oil is overbought at the moment and we are expecting a pull back'
meteorologist 1 says there is a hurricane forming in the GOM
Newscaster 1 says there is another bombing in Nigeria
Politician 1 says, we are happy with the price of oil
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:35 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
idomar wrote:
I'm not a chartist, neither do i pretend to know what a lot of 'technical' analysis means, however I have a question for you, excuse the preamble:
I can understand how charting and technical analysis may be useful for stocks relating to corporations on the various stock exchanges, these corporations do not report on a weekly basis the the performance of their companies and of their suppliers from all over the world.
People can choose to shop at different stores, buy from different suppliers and sell in different markets. Rumour may push up the value of a stock into 'overbought' or 'oversold' and towards or away from various moving average bands.
Now for the question(s):
Does the oil market really behave in the same way?
Can tecnical analysis on the oil market really be trusted when there are so many external factors that could affect it.
i.e Analyst 1 says that 'Oil is overbought at the moment and we are expecting a pull back'
meteorologist 1 says there is a hurricane forming in the GOM
Newscaster 1 says there is another bombing in Nigeria
Politician 1 says, we are happy with the price of oil
OPEC says the market is currently well supplied
HELP!!
You're right in the short term there can always be an "event", but haven't we all seen those days when the "event" happened and we all then shook our heads as to WHY did oil not go up today or down today? It most likely happened because the TECHNICAL chart watchers said, naaaaaa, we say it's going up or down not you!!!.....
Look at those charts in my posts above. Look how the price stays in those channels so nicely. Then the price almost always goes up for a while then down to the 50 dma or 200 day moving average.
Sometimes if the price is destined to go one way or another because of the "technicals" then some "event" that happens like a bombing in Israel will just "accelerate" the movement where it was headed anyways.
In the chart below look at the run up in the price from that low last year of around $50. Look how the price just kept going up, then down till it hit that secondary blue line and then went up again. The traders kept buying like crazy for a quick easy buck every time it hit that line....
Quick Note: We may actually be breaking out of that long term trend channel to the upside that is shown in the chart above by Clive Maund because its top appears to be $126. This would mean the price of oil may create a NEW and STEEPER trend channel and start accelerating its price rises in the future!!
Maybe because more have acknowledged the peak is here??
Chuck
Last edited by chuck6877 on Fri May 16, 2008 9:41 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($127.79)
My concerns with the application of standard technical indicators to the present oil market: show me a previous market in any commodity where supply is declining amidst highly inelastic demand and no viable substitute. I can't think of one off the top of my head, but assuming one exists, technical indicators should be weeded out if they didn't perform in that market. Assuming, of course, that technical trading has any merits based in actual causality, not just trader psychology. My hunch is that technical trading is valid, but only because it is a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby traders move the market because they act in the belief that there is "resistance" at a certain point, etc.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
idomar wrote:
Does the oil market really behave in the same way?
Can tecnical analysis on the oil market really be trusted when there are so many external factors that could affect it.
I think technical analysis is ridiculous, and I'd bet that any appearance of "working" that it has is only due to confirmation bias (ie, it "works" right up to the unpredictable point where it stops working), but many types of traders (including currency traders) use it (I've seen them do it and I've had just this argument with them).... currency markets likely have all the characteristics you've mentioned for oil markets as well.
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