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Peakoil.com :: View topic - THE Gasoline Price Thread (merged)
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THE Gasoline Price Thread (merged)
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What Price Will Gas Top Out At This Summer?
Gas will Be Cheap! Less than $2.
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Gas Will Stay Aout Where It Is Now. Somewhere Between $2 and $2.50
5%
 5%  [ 4 ]
Modest Increase. Between $2.50 and $3.
25%
 25%  [ 19 ]
Big Increase But No New Record. Gas $3 to $3.50
40%
 40%  [ 30 ]
New Record! Gas between $3.50 and $5.
27%
 27%  [ 20 ]
Oil Madness! Gas goes to $5 and Beyond.
1%
 1%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 74

Author Message
joeltrout
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 1317

PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:52 pm    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

IanC wrote:
Don't you thing people will ditch the SUVs long before the $10 mark? By that time, there will be serious decline in demand...maybe.

I think most automobiles will be ditched by that time but not because of choice. No telling what food will cost by then.

joeltrout
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pstarr
Expert
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Joined: Sep 27, 2004
Posts: 7090
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:07 pm    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Caine wrote:
IanC wrote:
Don't you thing people will ditch the SUVs long before the $10 mark? By that time, there will be serious decline in demand...maybe.
Welcome to the site!
-Ian
Portland, OR.

Thanks!
Yes, I do think the SUV's will be ditched by then. The chart is just for reference. Smile I think around $7 per gallon there will be very few guzzling trucks and SUV's on the road in the US. Regarding demand, it will hit the ceiling and then demand will drop due to high prices. But once demand drops, so do prices. Then, of course demand rises again after that. A continuous cycle, but never permanent demand destruction. I am guessing that each demand drop will only be temporary until rising again.
We are all in serious trouble because (and sometimes I find this hard to believe) the occasional truck actually does haul stuff we need. Shocked I know that is hard to believe as mostly what you see in the back bed are empties and garbage bags. Oh and the kid's trike.
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director ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap wav
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one_more_day
Tar Sands
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Joined: Aug 27, 2006
Posts: 75

PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:28 pm    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I will still drive my SUV even at $10/gallon. I will just drive it a whole lot less. I have already figured out that I can get all my essentials done on four gallons per week
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Ferretlover
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Joined: Jun 13, 2007
Posts: 3642
Location: Minniesotuh

PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:39 pm    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

IanC wrote:
Don't you thing people will ditch the SUVs long before the $10 mark?


They'd better ditch them before that-who's going to want them?
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"RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
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mos6507
Fusion
Fusion


Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 3804
Location: Boston Suburbs

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:14 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

one_more_day wrote:
I will still drive my SUV even at $10/gallon. I will just drive it a whole lot less. I have already figured out that I can get all my essentials done on four gallons per week

It's kind of a philosophical question along the lines of "if a tree falls in the forest does it make a sound", but is it worth owning a gas guzzler if the only way to afford it is to barely ever drive it? What use is it other than a trophy for the driveway? Meanwhile you have to insure it and register it and all that jazz.
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BW3
Tar Sands
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Joined: Mar 07, 2005
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:23 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Around here 4 or 5 person car pools are popular. A large SUV is more comfortable with 4 or 5 persons. And economical even at $10/gallon gas.
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ColossalContrarian
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude


Joined: Jun 20, 2006
Posts: 635

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 7:48 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Most people are hearing about the great deals for purchasing SUV’s going on at the moment. Nice little perks like $.99 gasoline for one year. Some people can’t see past the one year mark (or their just stupid…yep) and think that gasoline prices will go down, or that this run up is temporary. I’ve seen many new cars on the road, mostly SUV’s, no doubt because of the great incentives. Too bad these people put their ego before reality, trying to look flashy in their new SUV. Give’em a year so and they’ll be slapped back to reality. Owned by debt and a hunk of steel sucking their savings (or lack there of) dry.
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nocar
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Nov 05, 2004
Posts: 682

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:10 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I want to go back to the original post. Why is the assumption that the vehicle is driven 20.000 miles/year? That corresponds to 20.000x1.6 km=32.200 km.

Is 20.000 miles/yr a common or average distance driven in the USA? In Sweden the assumption in cost estimates is 15.000km/year, which is the average, and just half of the distance in the example made here.

I really would like to know how far the average US car or SUV is driven per year.

nocar
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pup55
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Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3702

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:16 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

FSENX is Fidelity Select Energy mutual fund. Any schmoe can invest in this fund with as little as $2500.

If you had done this in March of 2005, when nationwide retail price of gas was $2.00 for the last time, and the price of this fund was $39, you would have made $1771 in price appreciation (the price is now about $6Cool, plus collected some dividends along the way, or about $450 per year. At a more reasonable 10,000 miles per year, and 20+ miles per gallon (500 gallons per year) you would have roughly offset the value of the extra gas up until last November, when the price was last $3.

To offset the additional 70 cents or so, you would have to have made a bigger investment, of course. At $5000, you would have more than offset any price increase in that length of time.

If you were driving the Dodge Ram at the time, at 10 mpg, you could have offset the price of energy by an $11,000 investment. Since last November, this guy is only up about 2% or so, so you might have been better off in FSESX or FSNGX, both of which have done fine since then, despite the market gyrations, but that is beside the point.

But what I am saying is that if you had been really smart, back in March of 05, after having read PO.com for a year, seeing the crap that was about to happen, you would have sold your SUV, bought an econobox, and invested the difference into one of these energy-derived mutual funds, and basically offset the increased cost of fuel for this whole time.

If you were really smart, you would not have been driving the Dodge Ram in the first place, but some economical, paid for car that gets 28 mpg, is cheap to insure, and you can do 90% of the work on yourself, and you would have made the same investment, thus allowing you to fatten up.

This also points out that the fatcats that had $11K in their pockets in 2005 are not nearly as affected by all of this as the guy we were reading about in Alabama the other day trying to work for $7 an hour and paying $280 per month in gas. This should not be a surprise to the populists among us.

Warning: This post is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be construed as investment advice. Never take investment advice from anyone with a job. Do not take investment advice from some guy on the internet without fully investigating it and understanding the risks. I do not work for Fidelity or any other mutual fund company.

Also, anything that happens in the future is subject to the "new rules", whatever they may be, and may not resemble anything that happened in the past.
But, you have to think about this a little bit strategically. The frequent viewers of PO.com have a really valuable view into the future on all of this, if they will see it for what it is.


Last edited by pup55 on Thu May 15, 2008 8:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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misterno
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude


Joined: Mar 07, 2007
Posts: 301
Location: Houston, TX

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:31 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I wonder what one should do, if he really believes that gas will hit $10/gl one day?

Buy energy stocks
Sell the SUV
Buy the smallest car possible
Buy a small apartment very close to where you work
Start traveling the world as much as you can NOW
Do not keep investments in USD

So what else?
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nocar
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude


Joined: Nov 05, 2004
Posts: 682

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:38 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

misterno , what else to do?

Buy a biycle, use it and save money while building strength and bicycling experience. Get one with a holder for your bagage.

Create an internet site for ride sharing in your town.

nocar
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Caine
Tar Sands
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Joined: May 14, 2008
Posts: 21

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:20 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

nocar wrote:
I want to go back to the original post. Why is the assumption that the vehicle is driven 20.000 miles/year? That corresponds to 20.000x1.6 km=32.200 km.
Is 20.000 miles/yr a common or average distance driven in the USA? In Sweden the assumption in cost estimates is 15.000km/year, which is the average, and just half of the distance in the example made here.
I really would like to know how far the average US car or SUV is driven per year.
nocar

Hi nocar. I believe that the average mileage in the US every year is around 15,000 miles. But I'm just guessing. 20,000+ miles per year is very common in the US because so many people commute from their homes in the suburbs to their jobs in the city. I have personally known many people who were driving 180+ miles per day round trip to and from work. This equals at least 43,000 miles per year just going to work. Shocked
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pup55
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Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3702

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:37 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
Buy energy stocks
Sell the SUV
Buy the smallest car possible
Buy a small apartment very close to where you work
Start traveling the world as much as you can NOW
Do not keep investments in USD

This is a pretty good start.

I would also add the following:
Spend less than you make.
Don't borrow to pay for a depreciating asset
Stay healthy: Cheaper and good for your mobility.
Take care of your brain (by reading PO.com or other sources of news and info)
Invest in a network of allies and associates who can be helpful to you.
Make sure your life partner and any offspring are sufficiently tuned in to all of the above to not be dead weight.
Don't sweat the small stuff
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aahala2
Tar Sands
Tar Sands


Joined: Mar 25, 2008
Posts: 79

PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:42 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

nocar wrote:
I want to go back to the original post. Why is the assumption that the vehicle is driven 20.000 miles/year? That corresponds to 20.000x1.6 km=32.200 km.
Is 20.000 miles/yr a common or average distance driven in the USA? In Sweden the assumption in cost estimates is 15.000km/year, which is the average, and just half of the distance in the example made here.
I really would like to know how far the average US car or SUV is driven per year.
nocar

Here's the pdf from the EIA:
PDF

As you can see, the preliminary figure for 2006 for passenger cars
was 12,427 and for vans,pickup trucks, SUVs 10,986.
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MarkJ
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude


Joined: Mar 25, 2008
Posts: 181

PostPosted: Sun May 18, 2008 8:56 am    Post subject: Re: $2, $3, $5, $7, and $10 gasoline price comparisons- shoc Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Many suburban and rural households in my area that own trucks and SUVs also own second or third vehicles which keeps the mileage per vehicle per year lower.

Many renters and homeowners in the cities don't have the enough off-street parking, driveway, lot or garage space to accommodate, service or repair multiple vehicles.

Many people in my area also drive from the cities to the suburbs, rural areas or to other cities to work. My homes and land in in the suburbs and rural areas are closer to some of the major employers and shopping than my rental properties in some cities.
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