We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2532 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:43 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Reserves aren't "unproven," they're Proven/Probable/Possible. Russia still has a lot of areas in East Siberia that may hold oil but they're finding it impossible to develop these fields and stay ahead of declines elsewhere. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
You got the wrong guy. I'm the Dude, man.
"We can find a needle in a haystack, but it is still a needle." - Colin Campbell on oil exploration.
"A rubber band can only be stretched so far before it snaps back,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. "There are a lot of people talking about $150 oil, but I think this rally will soon be done.''
Sounds like he's getting desperate for some news to prove him right.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1792 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:40 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
RSB wrote:
In other words, a coin flip is as accurate as those analysts in predicting the direction of oil futures? Am I missing something here?
You're missing nothing. That pretty much sums it up. I don't think that survey ever got better than 55% (certainly not in the last couple of years) and is probably just holding above 49% because of rounding - they've been wrong for umpteen weeks in a row.
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 8:55 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
I find that America, in general, is very much a throw-away society. If your car breaks, sit it out in the yard and get another one. If your vacuum cleaner breaks, throw it away and get another one. In this vane, most Americans could learn a lot from the Europeans. Most Europeans are very thrifty and nature conscious. They reuse bags from the market, they throw very little away, and they cook almost everything they eat. Again talking about Europeans in general. Europeans also recycle everything from aluminum foil to paper towels.
Another point is the speed at which we travel on the highways of our land. If you travel at 60, you will get much better gas mileage than if you travel at 70 or 80. We must find the ultimate performance point for our vehicles and travel at that point. For instance, my truck gets the best gas mileage from 45 to 65, best being at 60. Therefore, on the highway, I travel at 60 mph or less, whatever the law allows.
Talking specifically about fuel, I find that most American's don't respect the fuel resources that we have found. Gas companies have not built a new gas refinery since the early 70's, and they aren't planning to now.
Working in Civil Engineering, I don't always agree with what the environmentalists preach, but this one thing i do STRONGLY believe. We must respect our natural resources and not take them for granted...be it food, fuel or anything else in our surroundings. If we respect ourselves, we will respect our natural resources and each other...and we must do that on a daily basis, not when it's convenient for us to do so.
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 10:29 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Very good post but it only slows down the inevitable. There is a notion that if I take the time to conserver something someone else will just take what I don't use. I am having a brain lapse at the moment and can't remember what its called specifically...however it is talked about on this site.
*Man Michael Lynch hasn't been around lately. You think he is hunkering down in his Doom Bunker?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2532 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 10:48 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Troyboy1208 wrote:
Very good post but it only slows down the inevitable. There is a notion that if I take the time to conserver something someone else will just take what I don't use. I am having a brain lapse at the moment and can't remember what its called specifically...however it is talked about on this site.
*Man Michael Lynch hasn't been around lately. You think he is hunkering down in his Doom Bunker?
In economics, the Jevons Paradox is an observation made by William Stanley Jevons, that as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource tends to increase, rather than decrease.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
You got the wrong guy. I'm the Dude, man.
"We can find a needle in a haystack, but it is still a needle." - Colin Campbell on oil exploration.
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be fought and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secret meeting in D.C this year on June 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around Jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to siphon wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occurring gas that plants breath but they have convinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whets really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..
Last edited by tin on Sun May 25, 2008 8:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1792 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
tin wrote:
all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be faught and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secrect meeting in D.C this year on june 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to syphen wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occuring gas that plants breath but they have covinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whats really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..
Oh, I don't think you need worry that people won't take your word for it.
A secret meeting eh? But at least you do know where it is and when it is to be held, so why not go along and report for us?
Listen, if you want to argue that humans don't pollute and that earth's resources aren't finite, I don't think this is quite the right forum or discussion (this one's about Michael Lynch's musings). Try the Open Discussion forum.
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
North American production peaked in 60's, the 60's ....HELLO???? They are boiling Tar Sands for oil. That tells me production has peaked and it is all downhill from, my only question is will be how steep and fast the decline is going to be?
I dont believe the middle east, Saudi's in particular have as much reserves as they claim.
I dont believe the So. Americans or the Russian know how much theyre actually sitting on,it still wont be enough to go around when competing with India ,China and Europe for it.
Malaysia used to export, they know want to import.
Nigeria is cutting back 30% production.
Another big oisand patch has been found in the Congo I believe?
The World will never break the 100 million bbl. per day record it already has.
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
TonyPrep wrote:
tin wrote:
all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be faught and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secrect meeting in D.C this year on june 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to syphen wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occuring gas that plants breath but they have covinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whats really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..
Oh, I don't think you need worry that people won't take your word for it.
A secret meeting eh? But at least you do know where it is and when it is to be held, so why not go along and report for us?
Listen, if you want to argue that humans don't pollute and that earth's resources aren't finite, I don't think this is quite the right forum or discussion (this one's about Michael Lynch's musings). Try the Open Discussion forum.
I dare you to do a little research and prove anything i have said to be wrong. Polution is a different subject than global warming caused by carbon. pollution is obviously an issue but that is not what the U.N is taking your tax dollars for. I wish you could disprove all that i have said..
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 8:37 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
TonyPrep wrote:
tin wrote:
all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be faught and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secrect meeting in D.C this year on june 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to syphen wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occuring gas that plants breath but they have covinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whats really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..
Oh, I don't think you need worry that people won't take your word for it.
A secret meeting eh? But at least you do know where it is and when it is to be held, so why not go along and report for us?
Listen, if you want to argue that humans don't pollute and that earth's resources aren't finite, I don't think this is quite the right forum or discussion (this one's about Michael Lynch's musings). Try the Open Discussion forum.
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