Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2089 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:18 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
I've said repeatedly, and I will say again bc I started this thread for a reason:
Duncan's theory is a starting point for ignorant Americans and an ignorant west which takes for granted the very complicated nature of its electrical system and how, without electricity, we don't have civilization as we know it.
This thread has attempted to show the very real problems the world is facing culminating now in this financial/credit crisis, which runs the risk of making any solutions to the many problems we are facing unattainable.
If anything, Duncan's theory shows that you can scream fire and Americans don't care, not unless its them that's burning. Unfortunately, by then, its too late to prevent the scar tissue.
It takes a lot of will and mone to deal with the issues we are facing, and so far, we have neither. I do think this thread shows that Western democratic gov'ts seem to be incapable of dealing with the energy issues for any number of reasons.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Yes, America is going to be in trouble, so I'll tell you what: In the coming years I'll come back here and state what the power grid is doing in my area (if the lights are still on all the time).
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:53 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
Duncan's theory is a starting point
Exactly!
Cut up Duncan's time line all you want, but until we find and implement a replacement for fossil fuels, the end result will be the same.
The idea is to refine the theory as new information becomes available.
Issac Newton vs. Albert Einstein, who was more correct? Was Newton wrong? Does that make his work unimportant? _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Last edited by jato on Fri May 16, 2008 3:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Outcasts, I hope you and everyone else will continue to come and visit this site and report the facts. In the end, I want to understand the truth. I try and collect here what is going on with the "grids" around the world bc there is no good source for collecting news related to electrical generation. Its difficult for lay observers to try to gather info and understand the issue. In fact, as far as I know, this is the only forum anywhere where people can come and post about Duncan's theory. The more people that read Duncan's theory and are for it or against it the better, bc it means people are paying attention and thinking about the issue. The less ignorance, the more education, the better. If we could only get Congress to pay attention, I might feel a little better about the direction things are moving.
What I ultimately have a problem with is this whole idea that "the market" will take care of it. It won't, not in the sense implied by the position. The position that the market will take care of it certainly implies to the lay person not to worry, that answers will be found. Maybe they will, but you may have brown outs etc for several years that adversely affect you and your business for example. Allowing the "market" to resolve it means there will be failures and people will respond to failures. I disagree with the notion that it is ever a good thing to allow failures just to encourage solutions. It would be analogous to allowing a crook to get the first shot or punch in, before I decided to learn to shoot, punch, or even draw first.
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 3:36 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
China shuts 32 power plants due to lack of coal.
Quote:
Chinese power plants are running out of coal, with less than three days' supply in some areas, the government said Tuesday, adding to China's logistical headaches amid earthquake relief efforts.
It is the second time in three months that Chinese power plants have run short of coal, reflecting the unintended effect of Beijing's awkward use of price controls — a throwback to communist central planning — to shield its public from record global energy costs.
Some 32 power plants already have shut down due to lack of fuel, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission said in a report. It said two were in Sichuan province, where last week's magnitude 7.9 quake damaged the power supply grid.
In February, freak snowstorms caught power plants without adequate coal supplies, causing blackouts and factory shutdowns in a country that relies on coal for 70 percent of its electricity.
Utility companies have let coal stocks run down and are buying less fuel to avoid losses after Beijing froze power prices last year to cool inflation but let market-set costs for fuel continue to rise.
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The SERC gave no indication how Beijing might respond to the latest shortages. An employee who answered the phone in its press office referred questions to the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission. The NDRC did not respond to requests for comment.
The government created an agency this year to oversee energy policy, bringing together powers from different ministries. But the agency has yet to take action, and it is unclear how effective it will be.
Beijing has also frozen retail prices of gasoline and diesel at low levels. That helps farmers and the urban poor but has hurt conservation by spurring sales of gas-guzzling luxury cars and propelling double-digit annual growth in fuel consumption.
Oil refiners say they are suffering heavy losses because they are barred from passing on higher crude costs to motorists. Some responded last year by cutting production, causing fuel shortages in parts of China's south.
Power plants in the eastern province of Anhui have just 2.8 days' supply of coal, while those in Beijing have 6.9 days' supply, the electricity agency said. The recommended minimum is 15 days; a week's supply is considered dangerously low.
In Sichuan province, where the May 12 quake killed tens of thousands of people, power plants have just seven days' supply of coal, according to the agency. It said two plants have none.
The agency's report did not say whether the quake affected supplies, but the NDRC says 200 coal mines in Sichuan were closed for safety inspections after the disaster.
In February, the government responded to coal shortages by keeping mines running through the Chinese New Year holiday to replenish stockpiles. But Tuesday's report suggested power plants let supplies run down after that.
Regulators have rejected appeals by utility companies to raise power prices.
China's power use is growing at double-digit annual rates, driven by a boom that saw the economy expand by 10.6 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Also Tuesday, a U.S. official urged Beijing to join the International Energy Agency — a group of major oil consumers that includes the United States and European governments — and aid its efforts to keep petroleum markets stable in times of crisis.
"I believe it is important for China and other key economies in the world, such as India, to prepare to eventually join the IEA as full members," Daniel S. Sullivan, an assistant U.S. secretary of state, said at a business conference.
China's surging energy demand has stirred unease abroad about the possible impact on prices and about Chinese intentions as state companies pursue supplies in Africa, Central Asia and elsewhere.
The 27-nation IEA coordinates the release of petroleum from national stockpiles to stabilize prices if crises threaten to disrupt supplies, Sullivan said. He said that was last done in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.
Sullivan, who is the U.S. envoy to the Paris-based IEA, said Beijing was invited to take part in an exercise next month to practice responding to a possible emergency, and he urged the government to accept.
"China might also consider a declaration that it plans to pursue membership in the IEA," he said. "This could help the anxiety expressed in some quarters over China's intentions as it pursues greater energy security."
The Chinese Foreign Ministry referred questions about whether Beijing might join the IEA to the NDRC, which did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Now, I know people will argue, the world has lots of coal, this only shows how stupid the Chinese bureaucracy is. Well, it actually shows the point of this thread, that gov'ts, all gov'ts, are incapable of planning for and dealing with these power issues. Its no different than Western gov'ts who are also failing for a myriad of reasons to invest in the infrastructure needed to continue capacity growth and insure reliability. And, it just shows we are at that point in time with world growth that the problems are manifesting themselves - now, not later.
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
Chinese power plants are running out of coal, with less than three days' supply in some areas, the government said Tuesday, adding to China's logistical headaches amid earthquake relief efforts.
It is the second time in three months that Chinese power plants have run short of coal, reflecting the unintended effect of Beijing's awkward use of price controls — a throwback to communist central planning — to shield its public from record global energy costs.
Some 32 power plants already have shut down due to lack of fuel,
Time to start buying electric cars?
In all fairness we should not be so critical of the Chinese in how they handle their electricity production.
Out here in California the gov. isn't any smarter.
I've said it before: Electricity is subsidized
California 12cents / kWh
(that's the statewide average, each city / area is different)
I wonder what the "true" cost of electricity is?
The only way to find out is to leave electricity production to the free market but that is impossible.
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
Now, I know people will argue, the world has lots of coal, this only shows how stupid the Chinese bureaucracy is.
That just isn't fair. Let's examine why it ended up depending on coal: Because for a long time that was the only more or less safe and inexpensive source of power it had. China didn't have the resources for things like the three gorges dam until about 15 years ago, and didn't have access to new nuclear, wind, and solar technologies until the last 10 years. Now before any of that was really available the electricity demand was growing rapidly.
So if you were faced with growing electricity demand but could only build coal, what would you do?
Btw, I am an expat living in Nanjing, China and have been here for the last 3 years.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2089 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
I'm not trying to cast blame on the Chinese, Pakistanis, South Africans, Chileans, or any other country have electrical shortage problems. All the power shortages currently faced by the many different countries throughout the world only shows one thing - that gov'ts are not capable of planning for and dealing with the issue. So don't plan on the gov't to come up with miracuously fixes to the problem of increasing shortages of power.
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 10:49 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
seahorse wrote:
....All the power shortages currently faced by the many different countries throughout the world only shows one thing - that gov'ts are not capable of planning for and dealing with the issue. So don't plan on the gov't to come up with miracuously fixes to the problem of increasing shortages of power.
The root of the problem is that electricity (and actually a lot of other things: water, public transit, freeways, etc...) is subsidized. Back in the days when commodities were cheap, governments had no problem paying for these subsidies by collecting taxes from industries that produced an economic surplus. ALL politicians whether in democracies or dictatorships always try to keep the people happy by providing a subsidy of some sort. Even Joseph Stalin, a person who was NOT pushed around very easily, subsidized electricity.
If the word "solution" means how do we make things go back to the good old days, than the answer is simple. There is NO solution. Government will just have to raise the price of electricity.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2089 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Blackouts affect thousands in the UK. Here's the article in full - please note the section I put in bold, as it emphasizes what I've been saying on this thread, that no gov't is capable of dealing with these energy issues.
Quote:
May 28, 2008
Blackouts hit thousands as generators fail
Murad Ahmed and Steve Hawkes
Hundreds of thousands of people were hit by electricity blackouts yesterday when seven power stations shut down. The unscheduled stoppages were regarded as an unprecedented sign of the fragility of Britain’s power infrastructure.
Operations were cancelled, people were stuck in lifts, traffic lights failed and fire engines were sent out on false alarms. Householders were unable to use any appliances or make phonecalls as the blackouts hit areas including Cleveland, Cheshire, Lincolnshire and London.
It was unclear last night why the power stations had failed. As the cuts escalated, the National Grid was forced to issue the most serious possible warning — “demand control imminent” — and urged suppliers to provide lower-voltage electricity to meet demand.
Energy suppliers affected by the shutdown, including British Energy and EON, said that they could not reveal the reasons for the cuts, nor would they say when some disrupted stations might resume service, because disclosure could affect the wholesale price of electricity.
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A National Grid spokesman admitted that the the number of shutdowns was highly unusual. One power company insider said that such an incident had not happened in the past ten years.
After two power stations suddenly shut down within minutes of one another at midday, nine “generating units” also shut, and at least four other power stations suffered failures throughout the day. Wholesale electricity prices soared 35 per cent to £95 per megawatt hour, a new record, immediately after the cuts.
Operations had to be cancelled at Wycombe Hospital in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire. When the cut struck, emergency generators kicked in, but one was affected by a fire. Surgery was abandoned in the catheterisation department. Elsewhere in the town, lights went off in the Eden shopping centre.
In and around the Lincolnshire towns of Market Rasen and Louth, 23,000 homes were affected. Thousands of households had no electricity in Wallasey, Birkenhead, Ellesmere Port and Runcorn on The Wirral.
Eight people were rescued from a lift in a library in Middlesbrough where, along with neighbouring Stockton and other parts of Cleveland, 30,000 premises were hit.
Thousands of people in South London were without electricity as the power shut some businesses. The cut lasted less than an hour but it affected stations, such as Clapham Junction, and caused road problems as traffic lights went out. North of London, Watford was also hit.
At midday the Sizewell B nuclear power station, run by British Energy in Suffolk, and the Longanett coal-fired power station, run by Scottish Energy in Fife, went offline within two minutes of each other. Later, “generating units” in power stations in Grain, Kent, and Ratcliffe, Nottinghamshire, and at EDF in Cottam, Nottinghamshire, Centrica in South Humber and International Power in Deeside each suffered cuts.
A National Grid spokesman said: “Nine generating units have become unavailable throughout Tuesday.”
David Porter, chief executive of the Association of Electricity Producers, said that the National Grid’s actions showed that the market was working well. However, he added that more investment was required urgently to prevent more regular problems.
Mr Porter said: “A lot of plant is getting old and is scheduled to close. More plant will be forced to close because of environmental pressure. The more clarity we can get from Government to help build new power stations, the better.”
The largest independent energy consultancy, McKinnon & Clarke, called on the Government to build new power stations to reinforce the crumbling infrastructure. David Hunter, energy analyst at the company, said: “The Government’s inability to make long-term energy security decisions over the last decade is coming home to roost. Since the ‘dash for gas’ in the 1990s, the lack of political will to make tough decisions has left Britain short of power.”
Some power stations remained shut last night. A British Energy spokesman said that the Sizewell B reactor was offline late yesterday, although a restart plan was under way. It is the first time the Sizewell B reactor has suffered a cut in three and a half years.
We in the west have this belief that the political ineptness of Africa is, well, bc they are Africans. I think, as this article shows, the west will be "enlightened" by their own blackouts - the irony.
The Gorge is real. It's simply another name for a blackhole of human stupidityfrom which the light of reason cannot escape. Apparently, when humans come together and form a collective society, the resulting mass of their collective stupidity sucks everything else in resulting, at some point in time, in terminal failure of the collective.
Last edited by seahorse on Tue May 27, 2008 10:01 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12024 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
seahorse wrote:
Apparently, when humans come together and form a society, the resulting mass of their collective stupidity sucks everything else in resulting, at some point in time, in terminal failure of the collective.
Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:36 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
The Gorge is real.
Speaking of which, time to make my report for the month: We've had tempuratures in the high 20's, low 30's (celcius) for two weeks straight now and so all the offices and department stores have started turning on their A/C's............no blackouts.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2089 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 6:45 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Outcast,
Apparently you don't live in England, bc not everyone in England had their lights come on yesterday. You also suffer from the logical fallacy that if something doesn't happen to you, it can't be true. Go back and take your college introduction to logic course over again.
Quote:
Britain faces regular blackouts and rising bills as electricity network cannot meet demand, experts warn
By Sean Poulter
Last updated at 1:41 AM on 29th May 2008
Britain faces the danger of repeated blackouts as clapped-out and crumbling power stations suffer a series of failures, it was claimed yesterday. More than 500,000 homes lost electricity for several hours after two major sites shut down suddenly on Tuesday.
Lights were dimmed in millions of homes as seven generating units at other power stations broke down too.
Problems continued yesterday when the Hunterston nuclear power reactor in Scotland failed. That meant ten of British Energy's 16 nuclear generation units were out of service either for maintenance or through faults.
The National Grid has refused to identify the power stations that shut down. However, they are understood to include two plants at Sizewell B in Suffolk
The power cuts affected parts of London, Cleveland, Merseyside, Cheshire, Lincolnshire and East Kent.
David Hunter, of energy consultants McKinnon & Clarke, warned of more problems.
'The power cuts of this week were caused by a series of coin-cidences,' he said. 'However, it seems likely that circumstances will conspire to mean this is more likely to happen again in the future.
'We have a problem of aging power stations, together with a lack on investment and a failure of political will to provide modern generating capacity.'
The next-day wholesale price for electricity has doubled in less than a year and bills for homes and businesses are soaring.
The power cuts began at 11.30am on Tuesday, when the two generating units at Sizewell B were shut down for technical reasons. British Energy, which owns the site, insisted the failure had nothing to do with the reactors and that there was no safety risk.
The National Grid control room in Berkshire was sent into chaos as systems failed on Wednesday
Separately, a coal-fired power station at Longannet, near Edinburgh, went off line because of technical problems. The unexpected failure of the three plants within just two minutes suddenly removed 1,500 megawatts of generating capacity from the National Grid.
The fall triggered sub-stations at locations across the country to automatically cut out, stopping power to homes and businesses. The alternative was a possible meltdown.
David Porter, chief executive of the Association of Energy Producers, said: 'It was a huge coincidence. People were without power for 30 or 40 minutes I believe. Everybody in the industry is very sorry but it doesn't happen very often.'
He admitted that it may be difficult to ensure sufficient generating capacity in the summer maintenance period.
Tuesday's problems could have been worse had it not been for imports of French nuclear power. A cable under the Channel that carries 2,000 megawatts of electricity has been working at full capacity over the past two days.
Professor Dieter Helm, an energy expert at Oxford University, said: 'If you take that electricity out of the supply system, you would be in really serious trouble.'
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2089 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 7:10 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Outcast,
You also selectively quoted me out of context, which means, you didn't understand what I said or you're just being dishonest. You quoted me as saying "the Gorge is real" without including the rest of the quote. The full quote said:
Quote:
The Gorge is real. It's simply another name for a blackhole of human stupidityfrom which the light of reason cannot escape. Apparently, when humans come together and form a collective society, the resulting mass of their collective stupidity sucks everything else in resulting, at some point in time, in terminal failure of the collective.
So, my quote talks about the collective stupidity of mankind, and you think I was saying your AC wasn't going to turn on yesterday? That's pretty funny.
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Was Newton wrong? Does that make his work unimportant?
