Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:29 am Post subject: Alberta
Alberta will soon join Saudi Arabia as the worlds most important source of oil. The production of marketable crude easily excedes 1 million bpd and is expected to reach 3 million bpd by 2020. it could reach 5 million bpd by 2030.
Canada is the top exporter to the American market exporting one million barrels per day, nearly the total production of the oil sands industry at this time.
In January, 2006 represenatives of Natural Resources Canada and the US Department of Energy met in Houston amd made plans for a five fold expansion in oil sands production as soon as possible.
Five million bpd would equal a quarter of US oil demand.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: Re: Alberta
And the tooth fairy will be driving the trucks personally.
5Mb/d is a fantasy. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Alberta
Alberta has been stuck around 1 million barrels per day for several years in spite of rocketing oil prices. Local environmental opposition is increasing, water is limited. But the real issue is natural gas to heat/liquefy for extraction, transport, and especially to hydrogenate the gunk into oil. I recollect Alberta declaring it's natural gas fields in decline not too long ago.
The Law of Receding Horizons tells us that the cost of everything, including secondary energy sources such as tar sands, is pegged to the cost of regular crude. Just when we think that tar sands are economical the cost of everything goes up. First diesel, then equipment repair, then new heavy machinery. This scheme will always require government subsidies or a fresh nest of clueless investors to keep going. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3655 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:16 pm Post subject: Re: Alberta
The only way I see this as possible is with a rapid expansion of the toe/heel underground in situ combustion-hydrogenation method.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic36128-0.html _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
I remember the days when rocket fuel and igniting it in the wellbore was the "newest great thing".
Turns out, there is always a "newest great thing". Some work, some sorta work, some don't work.
Nearly all of them are geared towards taking oil which isn't recoverable under normal circumstances, and recovering it. Which is why reserves grow, in part, which is why we haven't used anywhere near 50% of the oil available to us, which is why Colin has been getting it wrong for decades now, which is why this is all so much fun! _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 3:19 am Post subject: Re: Alberta
In Situ is precisly what we are doing amongst other things including the Scotford upgrader.
Production is well above 1 million bpd now. The Basin gas fields have not reached peak production yet although the sour gas has.
And i am the tooth fairy, just ask my son
I remember the days when rocket fuel and igniting it in the wellbore was the "newest great thing".
Turns out, there is always a "newest great thing". Some work, some sorta work, some don't work.
Nearly all of them are geared towards taking oil which isn't recoverable under normal circumstances, and recovering it. Which is why reserves grow, in part, which is why we haven't used anywhere near 50% of the oil available to us, which is why Colin has been getting it wrong for decades now, which is why this is all so much fun!
You almost had me believing you are a peakist, talking about outlandish schemes like rocket fuel, tar sands, and oil sludge etc. Then you had to blow it with that 'reserve growth' voodoo.
The wonder is that with petroleum at $120 barrel, those Albertan roustabouts are still producing the sludge at the same rate as when it was $30/barrel or 1 million barrels per day. Let's do the math together now
$120/$30=4. Good so far.
Now 4*1 million=4 million barrels per day. Right?
Wrong. Still 1 million barrels per day.
Haven't you heard. PO has nothing to do with reserves. Sheesh. It is all about production and the rate of extraction _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:23 pm Post subject: Re: Alberta
Pstarr you have no idea what you're talking about. Production exceded 1 million bpd two years ago and continues to increase. As new technology is applied to the field. Can you tell me why production is expected to reach 3 million bpd by 2020? Can you tell me what Shell, SunCor and Husky Energy are doing in the field?
The production and rate of extraction has a lot to do with enviromental concerns which have to be taken into consideration. That is the main concern here and it is being addressed.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1988 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: Re: Alberta
vampyregirl wrote:
Pstarr you have no idea what you're talking about. Production exceded 1 million bpd two years ago and continues to increase. As new technology is applied to the field. Can you tell me why production is expected to reach 3 million bpd by 2020? Can you tell me what Shell, SunCor and Husky Energy are doing in the field?
The production and rate of extraction has a lot to do with enviromental concerns which have to be taken into consideration. That is the main concern here and it is being addressed.
Production was 1.157 mbpd, in 2007. In round numbers, it's still close to 1 mbpd, and nowhere near 1.5 or 2 mbpd. "Expected to" is not the same as "definitely will", so no explanation of "expected" is needed; perhaps you can ask those who expect it to explain why they expect it? If they could keep up the 2.2% growth experienced last year, they'd only reach just over 1.5 mbpd by 2020. So that 3 mbpd is wishful thinking, for now.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: Re: Alberta
pstarr wrote:
You almost had me believing you are a peakist, talking about outlandish schemes like rocket fuel, tar sands, and oil sludge etc. Then you had to blow it with that 'reserve growth' voodoo.
??
In 1968 Midway Sunset had a ultimate recoverable estimate of 1.2 BBO. As of 1996 it had produced 2.6 BBO.
OH MY GOD!!!!! Not only did reserves grow...SOMEONE PUT THEM IN THEIR GAS TANK!!!!!
THE INHUMANITY OF PHANTOM RESERVES WHICH SOMEONE PHANTOMLY USED TO POWER THEIR PHANTOM CARS!!!
Can always count on you for an "expert" chuckle there Pete.
pstarr wrote:
Haven't you heard. PO has nothing to do with reserves. Sheesh. It is all about production and the rate of extraction
Haven't you heard? PO happened years ago and all us Americans got out of it was a lousy credit crisis...... _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:03 pm Post subject: Re: Alberta
vampyregirl wrote:
Pstarr you have no idea what you're talking about.
Careful their Vampy. While a truer statement has never been made around here, it isn't likely to gain you friends noticing such things. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:21 am Post subject: Re: Alberta
TonyPrep wrote:
vampyregirl wrote:
Pstarr you have no idea what you're talking about. Production exceded 1 million bpd two years ago and continues to increase. As new technology is applied to the field. Can you tell me why production is expected to reach 3 million bpd by 2020? Can you tell me what Shell, SunCor and Husky Energy are doing in the field?
The production and rate of extraction has a lot to do with enviromental concerns which have to be taken into consideration. That is the main concern here and it is being addressed.
Production was 1.157 mbpd, in 2007. In round numbers, it's still close to 1 mbpd, and nowhere near 1.5 or 2 mbpd. "Expected to" is not the same as "definitely will", so no explanation of "expected" is needed; perhaps you can ask those who expect it to explain why they expect it? If they could keep up the 2.2% growth experienced last year, they'd only reach just over 1.5 mbpd by 2020. So that 3 mbpd is wishful thinking, for now.
TonyPrep, you should not bore the denialists with facts and figures. That only distracts them from their important life-saving agenda which is to convince everybody that things are just about honkey-dorey
GothGirl, I can tell you just what Shell and the rest will continue to do: repeat endlessly their investor stock-scam public relations spiels that these gunky pools will make someone rich.
Quik GothGirl, buy now! You are almost on the bottom floor of an investment opportunity of a lifetime! Alberta is poised to be the next Saudi Arabia, and erase forever the OPEC stranglehold on the brave American driving public. Don't hestitate! Run for the broker NOW _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:53 am Post subject: Re: Alberta
vampyregirl wrote:
Can you tell me why production is expected to reach 3 million bpd by 2020?
Because whomever it is making those predictions is on glue? _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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