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Tuike Heavy Crude


Joined: Jan 10, 2005 Posts: 410 Location: Finland
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Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 2:10 pm Post subject: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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Bloomberg: Myanmar Cyclone Claims Thousands as UN Surveys Damage
| Quote: | May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Almost 4,000 people are dead and 3,000 missing after a tropical cyclone slammed into Myanmar two days ago in the region's deadliest storm-related natural disaster since a tsunami struck Southeast Asia in 2004.
Myanmar's foreign affairs ministry put the possible death toll at more than 10,000, according to Stephanie Bunker, spokeswoman for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The government today increased the official toll almost tenfold to 3,939. About 100,000 people are homeless. |
I saw this in the evening tv news. Everyplace is flooded, entire villages were destroyed. This surely affects Myanmars food production and contributes rise of food prices. |
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Jack Dark Lord


Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4972
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Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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Population: 47,758,181
Growth Rate: 0.8%
Growth per year: 382,000
Growth per day: 1,046
Deaths: About 4 days growth.
 _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!  |
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seahorse2 Expert


Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1824
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Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| I hate to be too skeptical, but how do they come up with these estimates of 4k dead? I seriously doubt they are counting bodies. And how would they be estimating, from what, based on what? I don't underestimate "inflated" body counts as an appeal factor for more aid. Please educate me on this. |
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Dan1195 Heavy Crude


Joined: Mar 19, 2005 Posts: 245
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Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 9:17 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| The Myanmar government actually has a history of minimizing casualities from natural disasters, as with many other dictatorial regimes. Given the history of very high deal tolls from cyclones in the Indian Ocean basin and the fact the storm had a large surge over the most populated area of the country, it sadly does not surprise me at all. |
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IslandCrow Intermediate Crude


Joined: Sep 12, 2005 Posts: 775 Location: Finland
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Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 12:46 am Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| Jack wrote: | Population: 47,758,181 .....
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Jack, what database are you using for Myanmar? My figures from the 'World Population Data sheet' of the 'Population Reference Bureau' are a little higher,with a daily growth of over 1 200 per day.
When I see a disaster like this (now reporting up to 15 000 deaths, including 10 000 in one town), and this translate 'only' into something like 12 - 15 days of population growth, I find that I cannot get my mind around what the horror of a die off must be like, and in world wide terms the population growth rate in Myanmar is modest compared with most countries in the world. _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice. |
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Jack Dark Lord


Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4972
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Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 4:38 am Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| IslandCrow wrote: | Jack, what database are you using for Myanmar? My figures from the 'World Population Data sheet' of the 'Population Reference Bureau' are a little higher,with a daily growth of over 1 200 per day.
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I used the CIA world factbook,
LINK
You're right about the die-off; it will be a wrenching change. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!  |
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dinopello Fission


Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2615 Location: The Urban Village
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Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 7:28 am Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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Death toll above 22,000 - Washington Post
| Quote: | | A news broadcast on government-run radio said that 22,464 people have now been confirmed dead from Cyclone Nargis, which tore through the country's rice bowl and biggest city of Yangon early Saturday. |
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alokin Intermediate Crude


Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 701
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Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:05 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| Does the cyclone has anything to do with climate change? Didn't read anything about it. |
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jedinvest Heavy Crude

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Joined: Mar 09, 2007 Posts: 219 Location: No. Calif.
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Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| alokin wrote: | | Does the cyclone has anything to do with climate change? Didn't read anything about it. |
It probably does, but the MSM media will ignore it as it is not at our doorstep. However, the death toll has a lot to do with destruction of the mangrove coastal forest that made room for economic growth such as tourism and shrimp farming.
BBC |
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Dan1195 Heavy Crude


Joined: Mar 19, 2005 Posts: 245
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:32 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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Found this interesting, but over at this site they do a weekly short summary of some major phrases that show up in linguistics analysis of a "web-bots" program which essentially combs the net and attempts to give hints about future events. I could see how for economic and social matters it might be useful but figures it would be rather useless when it comes to events triggered by natual disasters.
If you look at the archives of this year, there were repeated hints of a wind related event this spring. (no they were not added after the fact I was looking at the posting when the game out). Some striking similarities to Nargis:
1/28/2008
"marker before the "wind" event/natural disasters of the spring, to which government reacts badly and ticks people off.."
Maybe it was just dumb luck. Natural disasters resulting in poor government reaction happen fairly often. |
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Ferretlover Moderator


Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3354 Location: Minniesotuh
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:48 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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Myanmar Survivors Face Disease as Relief Awaits Entry (Update5)
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Survivors of the Myanmar cyclone, now estimated to have killed as many as 100,000, are at risk of cholera and other infectious diseases as the United Nations urges the military government to accept foreign help.
More than 1 million people may have been left homeless since Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit the country formerly known as Burma on May 3. Teams from aid group Doctors Without Borders found 80 percent of houses damaged and meter-high (3-foot) flood waters in some areas of Daala and Twante townships, where 300,000 people lived, in the Irrawaddy River delta area. ...
Link _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto |
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3aidlillahi Intermediate Crude


Joined: Mar 25, 2008 Posts: 593
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:58 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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It now looks like there will be 100 000 people dead and probably tens of thousands more dead over the coming months and years from diseases and whatnot caused by the storm and aftermath. I imagine Jack isn't posting since these new figures came out because 1) it's still not enough to make him care or 2) he's too busy masturbating to 100,000+ dead. I'm not sure which is more disturbing.
Although to be fair, even if this amounts to 200 000 dead, that's still equivalent to a week's dead due to starvation.  _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind. |
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Jack Dark Lord


Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4972
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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Goodness! Three-and-a-half months of population growth negated.
They would need four such disasters every year to go into negative population growth.
To decline be a mere 1.6% per year, they would need one every month.
 _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!  |
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wisconsin_cur Moderator


Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2745 Location: The Entropisphere
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:20 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| Jack wrote: | Goodness! Three-and-a-half months of population growth negated.
They would need four such disasters every year to go into negative population growth.
To decline be a mere 1.6% per year, they would need one every month.
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Wouldn't we expect a dip in the birth rate 7-9 months from now? Women not getting enough food or clean water loosing the pregnancies? Not as much baby making going on as people focus on more immediate needs of food and water?
I'm not denying Jack's premise... I'm sure the rest of the world is making plenty of babies as this goes on but if we take the principle and cast it onto a large global devolution of society (thanks to increased cost of oil and the products made from it) perhaps we would not need a death rate quite as astronomical as we generally think.
Hardship just needs to grow to the point that a) a large number of people die b) the survivors are unwilling or unable to procreate or keep the resulting children alive. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"What I try, may not work. It may be ineffective. It might even turn out in the pages of history to be the exact wrong thing to do, but I'm going to try to do what I c |
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Jack Dark Lord


Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4972
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar - thousands dead |
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| wisconsin_cur wrote: |
Wouldn't we expect a dip in the birth rate 7-9 months from now? Women not getting enough food or clean water loosing the pregnancies? Not as much baby making going on as people focus on more immediate needs of food and water?
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Entirely possible. On the other hand, the lack of alternative entertainment and the urge to attempt procreation might offset the issues you mention.
Notice the video scenes of Darfur - poor nutrition, disease, and lots of babies. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!  |
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