Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:59 pm Post subject: Re: How will the European Union respond to Peak Oil?
I think that the geostrategy position of the EU is quite precarious:
1. It is not protected by two oceans, unlike the US
2. Conflict potentials with the Middle East, West Asia and Russia
3. Weak and not quite coherent defense strategy, highly dependent on the US through NATO
4. Unequal level of economic development and standard of living (East-West, North-South)
All this makes for a tough equation. I strongly doubt that fragmentation of the EU would help with reaching a solution. Neither would neo-feudalism, neo-communism, neo-fascism or any system which encourages divisions such as massive inequalities of political or economic power .
Any of the bad outcomes might happen after a large scale war, the avoidance of which ought to be the first priority of any sane EU strategy.
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: How will the European Union respond to Peak Oil?
energycity wrote:
I'm no expert but even with decent quantities of fertilizer and mechanisation I imagine the UK would find it very difficult to be 100% self-sufficient. It could be a long, slow starvation (or more likely migration). Spare some spuds or bread anyone?
Even with less than 100% self-sufficiency, a country could perhaps feed itself if it prioritized agriculture over everything else, produced less meat and more crops (meat would be rationed for those doing heavy work), and started growing e.g. potatoes wherever possible (potatoes give way bigger yields/acre than crops). I believe the average western nation could survive on maybe 70% of its currently produced calories per person. Think of all obese people and food that gets thrown away in grocery shops and restaurants every day. It would be painful though and require strict government control.
energycity wrote:
The EU doesn't mean much if the moment we hit a crisis we expect to revert to nationalism again; understandable I suppose, but disappointing.
I agree. It's going to be interesting to watch all the bitter fights in the European Parliament before it's finally dissolved. The countries that have the Euro as a currency will be in a complicated situation, though.
Twilight wrote:
]The UK demonstrated an inability to feed itself in 1917. I doubt much progress has been made as its population has grown and become urbanised.
Well, the UK has certainly progressed in nuclear armament. Nukes could become useful when the Germans, Danes and Swedes ask why they should give so much of their hard-grown food to Britain. _________________ "A devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desire... the best dictatorship would be one where the government prevents any economical growth."
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: Re: How will the European Union respond to Peak Oil?
[quote="Fredrik"]
energycity wrote:
Nukes could become useful when the Germans, Danes and Swedes ask why they should give so much of their hard-grown food to Britain.
I suppose the UK was 80% self-sufficient during the Second World War and we have had the (oil-based) post war "Green Revoultion" since then so all may not be entirely hopeless .... as long as there is still some oil for agriculture (a big "IF"). Also many people have connections with overseas; I suspect there would be a heavy exodus for more promising Peak Oil lands.
Last edited by energycity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:18 am; edited 3 times in total
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:11 am Post subject: Re: How will the European Union respond to Peak Oil?
I'm very fond of Denmark (and I'm sure Germany and Sweden are nice too) so I'd be reluctant to drop "The Big One" for lack of a loaf of bread and a plate of dripping.
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 181 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 4:43 am Post subject: Re: How will the European Union respond to Peak Oil?
How will the European Union respond to Peak Oil?[fade]
Well Oil now is at 145 USD a bbl..and they are doing very little, but complaining.
What will the EU do with peak oil? Easy I can sum it up in one word.
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he UK was 80% self-sufficient during the Second World War
Where are you getting those numbers from? I am a expert on WW2 and most of the UK imports came from the USA and its then colonies. The UK ruled the sea with the largest Naval fleet in the world...
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I suspect there would be a heavy exodus for more promising Peak Oil lands.
Depends on how fast the collapse happens.. I expect it to be about 15 years
2008-2012 Recession..most will stay put with a few leaving to France-Spain ect...
2012-2017- major recession start of a Serve Depression. Most will lack capital to move and stay put.
2017-2025- Cliff event-Starvation, nuclear exchange, total economic collpase. Most people during famines and starvation generally don't move far from home. I expect most Brits to starve to death within 50 miles from their homes.
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Even with less than 100% self-sufficiency, a country could perhaps feed itself
In theory.. But in practice it dont work that way.. Hell even the USSR during the Stalin famines of the 1930s exported foods and grains. People will still want to make money in the years ahead...and those in control of farms will sell to the highest bidder..even if his neighbor is starving to death..This is a historic fact.
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The UK demonstrated an inability to feed itself in 1917. I doubt much progress has been made as its population has grown and become urbanised.
Hnmm They were within 1 month then of mass starvation "with a population half the current size" And in 1917 most of its stored foods were from the USA and its colonies. The UK hasn't feed itself since the early 1700s when its population was at 8 million and even they they face famines near every 20 years.
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