“Morozov`s scissors”

ms1970 · Coal Joined: Apr 26, 2008 Posts: 4

Oil production is almost invariable. Plateau, in generally. But the quantity of delivered oil is diminishing. Oil had been produced in US. Today oil for US have been produced in Persian Gulf. Oil had been produced in North Sea for Europe. Today oil for Europe have been produced in Persian Gulf too.
Tankers is consuming oil. From 0 to 7 per cent. 7 per cent is for Gulf. If earlier there was 1000 bpd in US, today needed 1000 bpd is Arabia plus 7 per cent, or 1070 bpd.
One Barrel is not equal to one barrel.
It is important in issues, when qualities of oil is accounted. For Peak oil date too. Keeping of world output means it is not enough for keeping one. Consumers in which situation get smaller oil. Up-to-date price soaring occurs as a result in theory plateau, but really decrease of oil delivering.
Because I did not see this important issue in peakist materials and presentations, I please to name this “Morozov`s scissors”. I hope this term will be useful.
Mail ms1970@narod.ru
Sergey Morozov - author

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1446

Thank you.

Kind uv a poor man's Occam's Razor.

MacG · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 04, 2005 Posts: 1169

EROEI

ms1970 · Coal Joined: Apr 26, 2008 Posts: 4

It is possible to account this as “global“ eroei. But traditionally eroei is accounted at production place.

gt1370a · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 338

Sorry, I believe this falls under Jeffrey Brown's (aka Westexas) Export Land Model. He's been talking about the idea that available imports will decrease much faster than geological decline rates for.... I dunno, I guess a couple years now. Your name sounds cooler though.

sch_peakoiler · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 15, 2006 Posts: 555

I do not know all the "peakists' presentation by heart, but this idea has already been discussed at length in different forums, including this one.

this is basically about the difference between gross and net supply, which can of course vary. If you suck 1 barrel of oil out of the ground which is like 5 miles away from you this is one thing and if you got 1 barrel of oil like 2 km under the seabed which is like 10 000 miles away from you this is totally different.

this idea is really nothing new, and nothing I would give a personal name to -> this is generally a common sense.

Will all due respect to you.
_________________
There is no knowledge that is not power.

ms1970 · Coal Joined: Apr 26, 2008 Posts: 4

ms1970 · Coal Joined: Apr 26, 2008 Posts: 4

Cloud9 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 944

Greater oil will be expended in oil recovery until no oil is recovered at all.