I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
The Avg indicates Peak Rate will be 92 in 2019 and All Liquids will decline back to 87 in 2029. The insinuation that substantial energy replacement or substitution is required on the short term seems to be misguided according to the projections by the globe's recognized geologists and analysts.
So, you think production will never go below 87 mbpd, until 2029, but will only get to 92 mbpd by 2019. That's an average growth rate of 0.5% per year. I think it's a matter of opinion whether that woeful growth rate can meet the demand placed on it by growing economies. However, recessions can dent that demand. The question is: will we have recessions because there is no substantial replacement for the gap represented by such a slow production growth rate, or because of some completely unrelated economic condition?
I would say the world is in a recession right now. When 38 countries are facing critical food shortages. It will hit all countries shortly.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2051 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
LastViking wrote:
manu wrote:
I would say the world is in a recession right now. When 38 countries are facing critical food shortages. It will hit all countries shortly.
That is plain rubbish. Global Real GDP is currently 2.25% ... and not a single g-20 nation is in Recession.
Are you talking technically or practically? Two consecutive quarters of contraction is technical recession but that means waiting until specific dates to calculate. The US was close to recession in the last quarter of last year and New Zealand had negative growth in one recent month (I forget which). Are there any figures for rolling quarters (the most recent three months)?
Do you have the most recent figures for the G20 countries and do you think recessions in other countries doesn't matter?
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
manu wrote:
LastViking wrote:
manu wrote:
I would say the world is in a recession right now. When 38 countries are facing critical food shortages. It will hit all countries shortly.
That is plain rubbish. Global Real GDP is currently 2.25% ... and not a single g-20 nation is in Recession.
I hope that you can talk to some people somewhere on the street, instead of gulping up the slop numbers that TPTB feed the masses from their bubble.
Oh thats right, anecdotes for the win.
Find 10 people that are doing poorly and you can find 10 people that are doing great. It doesn't tell you crap about the state of the economy, and neither does ranting about 'TPTB' or venturing off into conspiracy land.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
The Avg indicates Peak Rate will be 92 in 2019 and All Liquids will decline back to 87 in 2029. The insinuation that substantial energy replacement or substitution is required on the short term seems to be misguided according to the projections by the globe's recognized geologists and analysts.
So, you think production will never go below 87 mbpd, until 2029, but will only get to 92 mbpd by 2019. That's an average growth rate of 0.5% per year. I think it's a matter of opinion whether that woeful growth rate can meet the demand placed on it by growing economies. However, recessions can dent that demand. The question is: will we have recessions because there is no substantial replacement for the gap represented by such a slow production growth rate, or because of some completely unrelated economic condition?
Well, if Freddy is right, we will have closed off the lower part of the infamous crocodile jaw graph (falling supply and rising demand forming a " < ").
We will in effect be on a slightly sloping plateau for the next 20-30 years and will only have to deal with increasing demand, not falling supply. This makes everything a 100 times easier.
But I think Freddy is wrong. I hope he's right. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
Starvid wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
The Avg indicates Peak Rate will be 92 in 2019 and All Liquids will decline back to 87 in 2029. The insinuation that substantial energy replacement or substitution is required on the short term seems to be misguided according to the projections by the globe's recognized geologists and analysts.
So, you think production will never go below 87 mbpd, until 2029, but will only get to 92 mbpd by 2019. That's an average growth rate of 0.5% per year. I think it's a matter of opinion whether that woeful growth rate can meet the demand placed on it by growing economies. However, recessions can dent that demand. The question is: will we have recessions because there is no substantial replacement for the gap represented by such a slow production growth rate, or because of some completely unrelated economic condition?
Well, if Freddy is right, we will have closed off the lower part of the infamous crocodile jaw graph (falling supply and rising demand forming a " < ").
We will in effect be on a slightly sloping plateau for the next 20-30 years and will only have to deal with increasing demand, not falling supply. This makes everything a 100 times easier.
But I think Freddy is wrong. I hope he's right.
Sorry, but methinx my comment has been misinterpreted. What i meant to say is that the global volume of All Liquids that we saw last year (86-mbd) will be maintained during that time frame.
Over the weekend, data from the March 2008 reports (with prior year revisions) from IEA & EIA have been run thru my Scenario-2300 model. The new output indicates that the a Peak of 97-mbd will occur in 2015 and Production will decline to the 86-mb threshold in 2033.
Alternatively, an unpublished update of the 23-model TrendLines Scenarios Avg foresees a Peak of 92-mbd in 2019 & a return to 86-mbd volume in 2031.
Obviously, my point is that the basis for the gloom merchants' dogma that fossil fuel and general energy decline will bring about TEOTWAWKI on the short, medium or long term is completely baseless and unfounded. Today's flow volume will be with us for at least the next 23 years. Nat'l Gas & Coal present even better prospects. And total Energy is not projected to decline before the end of the century...
Admittedly, Energy production must service a growing population until 2045. After that, we will have potentially greater Energy amid a falling population ... but a population with increasing larger disposable income. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:28 pm Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
threadbear wrote:
LastViking wrote:
manu wrote:
I would say the world is in a recession right now. When 38 countries are facing critical food shortages. It will hit all countries shortly.
That is plain rubbish. Global Real GDP is currently 2.25% ... and not a single g-20 nation is in Recession.
Do you believe govt. stats?
So if I understand your question correctly, if the stats show the Decline started in July 2006, it is OK to use them and the graphs (as does Matt Simmons in his pdf presentations); but if the subsequent stats illustrate a new Peak in January 2008, should we take the position that the governent is manipulating the data and stop using them and go back to anecdotal evidence? And same with GDP data... And might as well throw in Unemployment figures... And why not add how many Republicans voted for President...
A truly novel philosophy. It avoids us having to read bad news...
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2051 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:59 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
FreddyH wrote:
Obviously, my point is that the basis for the gloom merchants' dogma that fossil fuel and general energy decline will bring about TEOTWAWKI on the short, medium or long term is completely baseless and unfounded. Today's flow volume will be with us for at least the next 23 years. Nat'l Gas & Coal present even better prospects. And total Energy is not projected to decline before the end of the century...
Admittedly, Energy production must service a growing population until 2045. After that, we will have potentially greater Energy amid a falling population ... but a population with increasing larger disposable income.
Wow, you really know how to turn a situation that sees maybe, if we're lucky, if nothing unforeseen happens, a not too bad energy position, into a one that certainly sees very little reason to do anything about potential problems we face. You rail against other models whilst feeding your numbers into your model to, da-da, come up with a fairly benign mitigated gap and a certainty that population, and resource demand, will peak by 2045, being all downhill thereafter.
You message seems to be: "don't worry folks, believe my models that we have no reason to be alarmed about any of earth's limits and no need to adjust your own lifestyles or to push for adjustments to society; my models say everything will be fine, so that settles that".
One of the graphs you show averages out peak predictions, as though the average must be the correct one (with all of the input models being wrong, of course).
And population growth rate has been stable or increasing for the last 4 years, so maybe that 2045 peak needs to be adjusted.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 3:25 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
Obviously, my point is that the basis for the gloom merchants' dogma that fossil fuel and general energy decline will bring about TEOTWAWKI on the short, medium or long term is completely baseless and unfounded. Today's flow volume will be with us for at least the next 23 years. Nat'l Gas & Coal present even better prospects. And total Energy is not projected to decline before the end of the century...
Admittedly, Energy production must service a growing population until 2045. After that, we will have potentially greater Energy amid a falling population ... but a population with increasing larger disposable income.
Wow, you really know how to turn a situation that sees maybe, if we're lucky, if nothing unforeseen happens, a not too bad energy position, into a one that certainly sees very little reason to do anything about potential problems we face. You rail against other models whilst feeding your numbers into your model to, da-da, come up with a fairly benign mitigated gap and a certainty that population, and resource demand, will peak by 2045, being all downhill thereafter.
You message seems to be: "don't worry folks, believe my models that we have no reason to be alarmed about any of earth's limits and no need to adjust your own lifestyles or to push for adjustments to society; my models say everything will be fine, so that settles that".
One of the graphs you show averages out peak predictions, as though the average must be the correct one (with all of the input models being wrong, of course).
And population growth rate has been stable or increasing for the last 4 years, so maybe that 2045 peak needs to be adjusted.
Your cutesy cut&paste job is disengenuous i.e. it hides the fact that my model is but one of 23 in the TrendLines Avg. All the models are submitted by geologists and analysts. About a third of them belong to ASPO franchises. Yet u mock the result 'cuz it is diametrically opposed to group think by the McPeaksters.
I have elaborated for several years on the inherent methodolgy error of bottom up analysis for forecasting purposes. I have also laid out the impecable track record of the optimists wrt long term projections. Each McPeakster proponent suggested and added over the years has ended up upward revising or being deleted due to invalidation of their projections with the passing of time (to wit: Bakhtiari).
OTOH, several of the optimists have been relegated to our "Hail Mary" presentation and likewise deleted from the Avg (to wit: CERA).
Michael Lynch has warned me that in such a large universe, often the reality will track towards one of the two camps. Because they all pretty well share the same data bases and over the past six months we have purged the dated and extreme/unfounded/invalidated forecasts, i have high confidence that this crop of practitioners will be party to an eventual and extraordinary merging of views.
It may seem a long process to some, but since version one in 2004 progress has been made and is definitely assisted by scrutiny of the component models/scenarios by forums as this one...
On the matter of a post 2045 drop in demand, i cannot agree with your analysis. The rate of populaton decline will be insignificant in the few decades after Peak Population and will most probably be exceeded by the growth rate of disposable income and expectations within a growing working class in Chindia and Africa. Demographic studies suggest that ageing societies in China et al will return to the conventional pyramid formation in the latter half of the Century.
Nobody compels the McPeaksters to adopt the forecasts, scenarios and projections presented and published by leaders in their field within Energy and Populaton study sectors.
Like followers of Intelligent Design, Y2k apocalypse and fiat currency & economic collapsea, your cult is has its own sources for purported knowledge for its KoolAid recipe. Feel free to feed your constituency as i do mine... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2051 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 5:41 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
FreddyH wrote:
Like followers of Intelligent Design, Y2k apocalypse and fiat currency & economic collapsea, your cult is has its own sources for purported knowledge for its KoolAid recipe. Feel free to feed your constituency as i do mine...
This kind of comment doesn't do your case any good.
What I question is the certainty with which you present your ideas. This is more akin to religion than what I do.
We all rely on inexact data and inexact knowledge and no-one can know what will happen or how scarcity in our collection of finite resources on this planet will affect societies and how they might adapt. Heck, you and I might even get through the rest of our lives without too much trouble, if we're luck.y But that would not alter the fact that consuming finite resources at increasing rates (or even at a steady rate) can't continue for all resources. However, there is enough evidence to suggest that resource peaks, as well as environmental problems, will occur within both of our lifetimes. Unfortunately, analyses like yours can persuade some people that there is no need to make behavioural changes or support governments making changes that may adversely affect the economy.
Certainty is a luxury we don't have, apart from the certainty that the earth's resources are finite.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6543 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 6:08 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
FreddyH is one nasty cornucopian, isn't he? Not only he is wrong about just about everything, he gets very personal about it.
I hereby award him my highest, most rarely-accorded honor: IGNORE _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 5:29 am Post subject: Re: My days as a doomer might be over
Dezakin wrote:
manu wrote:
LastViking wrote:
manu wrote:
I would say the world is in a recession right now. When 38 countries are facing critical food shortages. It will hit all countries shortly.
That is plain rubbish. Global Real GDP is currently 2.25% ... and not a single g-20 nation is in Recession.
I hope that you can talk to some people somewhere on the street, instead of gulping up the slop numbers that TPTB feed the masses from their bubble.
Oh thats right, anecdotes for the win.
Find 10 people that are doing poorly and you can find 10 people that are doing great. It doesn't tell you crap about the state of the economy, and neither does ranting about 'TPTB' or venturing off into conspiracy land.
Suit yourself. But correct me if I'm wrong. If you lived in one of the 38 countries that are having food shortages you probably would think there was a depression. As far as who controls what, all I can say is "wake up lemmings the cliff is near".
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