Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Australia's 2008/09 wheat crop could double to between 26 million tonnes and 27 million tonnes as a drought eases, while plantings would not be affected by recent swings in prices, according to private group Australian Crop Forecasters.
A crop of this size would set a new record for Australia, the world's second largest wheat exporter behind the United States, and would be up from the 2007/08 crop of 13.1 million tonnes, which was affected by drought.
Wheat fell the maximum permitted by the Chicago Board of Trade as rains improved crop prospects in Australia and farmers worldwide prepared to sow more grain to take advantage of prices that reached a record high last month.
Rains have eased drought conditions for four straight months in Australia, the fifth-largest exporter last year. Russia, the third-largest exporter, said today its crop is in good condition. The International Grains Council estimates global output will rise 7 percent in the year ending June 30, 2009, after the wheat price doubled in the past year.
Brazilian agricultural producers should have their largest harvest ever in the 2007/2008 grain crop, with a 3.1% increase in production compared with the previous crop. A total of 135.8 million tonnes of grain should be harvested.
[...]
Percentage-wise, the greatest increase in comparison with the previous crop should be that of the wheat crop, which should rise from 2.233 million to 3.831 million tonnes, the equivalent of a 71.5% growth.
Though of course the size of their wheat crop pales in comparison to Australia, Russia and the US. But hey, at least it's going up.
More Ukraine wheat. Ukraine's ag minister sees the country's 2008 wheat production climbing to 19.1 MMT after harvesting a crop of 13.9 MMT in 2007. Higher yields and more planted acreage are expected to fuel the sharp rise in production.
A wide swath of Canada's southern and central grain belt needs more snow and rain in the next four to six weeks to ease concerns about dry soils ahead of spring planting, crop specialists said.
And -- for entirely different reasons -- Argentina . . .
Government policies aimed at fighting inflation and cashing in on high global grains prices could lead Argentine farmers to grow less wheat and soy, a leading grains producer said on Wednesday.
India's wheat crop, the world's second-biggest, needs favorable weather in northern growing areas in the next fortnight to meet a government production forecast, an agricultural researcher said.
[...]
India's wheat production, second only to that of China, may drop 1 million tons to 74.81 million metric tons in the March- April harvest after farmers planted the crop on a smaller area than in the previous year, the farm ministry said on Feb. 7.
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: Re: Australian wheat crop could double this year, set record
Hmm, let's see . . . (I'm bored, too) . . .
Australia + ~13 million tonnes
Brazil + ~1.6 million tonnes
Ukraine + ~5.2 million tonnes
India - ~1 million tonnes
Canada +- ???
Argentina +- ???
Plus the Russian crop "is in good condition." USA winter wheat plantings up 3.6% and red wheat plantings up 21%. So that world 7% increase projection could be about right.
The International Grains Council estimates global output will rise 7 percent in the year ending June 30, 2009, after the wheat price doubled in the past year.
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 5:36 am Post subject: Re: Australian wheat crop could double this year, set record
Red Wheat is on my list of things to store.
As much as I hate to wait, closer attention to the wheat production forecasts may show a price drop in the next year.
Saving $10 or more on each of 50 superpails, I can get the Diamant mill instead of the Country Living mill. _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
Australia's 2008/09 wheat crop could double to between 26 million tonnes and 27 million tonnes as a drought eases, while plantings would not be affected by recent swings in prices, according to private group Australian Crop Forecasters.
A crop of this size would set a new record for Australia, the world's second largest wheat exporter behind the United States, and would be up from the 2007/08 crop of 13.1 million tonnes, which was affected by drought.
Quote:
"Obviously its all subject to April/May rain, a normal seasonal break," said Storey, a former manager of the wheat export pool of Australia's monopoly wheat exporter
Oil-Finder wrote:
Looks like there'll be plenty of bread on the shelves after all.
Stupid boy.
Should read there may be plenty of bread not there will be.
Edited to add, Australia has also been subject to a la Nina this year that increases percipitation. This suggests that the drought has not broken but been temporarily alleviated due to la Nina.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1417 Location: Seattle
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 1:11 am Post subject: Re: Australian wheat crop could double this year, set record
dorlomin wrote:
Should read there may be plenty of bread not there will be.
You are absolutely correct. But the prognosis does look good so far.
More on this front. According to a USDA report out today, US farmers are planning to plant 5.5% more acres of wheat than last year. This sent the price of wheat on the CBOT today tumbling to its maximum allowed 6.1%.
--> Bloomberg <--
Quote:
Wheat futures for May delivery fell the exchange limit of 60 cents, or 6.1 percent, to $9.29 a bushel in Chicago, the lowest for a most-active contract since Jan. 31. After reaching a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27, wheat has dropped 14 percent this month.
dorlomin wrote:
Edited to add, Australia has also been subject to a la Nina this year that increases percipitation. This suggests that the drought has not broken but been temporarily alleviated due to la Nina.
We shall see. According to this, La Nina doesn't even affect all of Australia. Additionally, the drought in Australia prior to this past year was caused by an El Nino (source), which has particularly devastating effects on Australia and Chile:
Quote:
Recent El Ninos have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007.
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 5:26 am Post subject: Re: Australian wheat crop could double this year, set record
OilFinder2 wrote:
La Nina doesn't even affect all of Australia. Additionally, the drought in Australia prior to this past year was caused by an El Nino (source), which has particularly devastating effects on Australia and Chile:
Quote:
Recent El Ninos have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007.
The drought in Australia has been going on for about 8 years. It has spanned three el nino events which have exacabated it. La Nina does bring wet wether to eastern Australia which includes the grain growing regions of NSW and the upper catchment area of the Murray river which brings water to the grain growing regions of South Australia.
This relief has been an absolute blessing for many farmers who are nearly broken pschologicaly by this drought. A good harvest will help keep many in bussiness, but whether the long term trend has been broken or the ENSO has only brought a years worth of relief remains a painfully open question.
Australia is vaulnrable to droughts that last decades. It is a hard dry country to farm. I wonder if they share your unencumbered enthusiasm in Bourke and the Alice.
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