Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:34 pm Post subject: PEAK PORK!
A new breed of criminal has emerged in China: "pigjackers." Soaring pork prices in the People's Republic have sent thieves roaring off with truckloads of hogs—and sometimes with smaller hauls, as was the case with the gang that was busted last year in Shenzhen trying to make off with 275 pounds of pork on a motorbike. A local newspaper valued the meat at upwards of $420, or roughly three times what a stolen motorbike might fetch in the city. Police easily caught the getaway bike; it couldn't handle all that weight.
The porcine crime wave is no joke to China's leaders. They see it as a sign of a much larger problem: even more than they worry about a repetition of Tiananmen Square, they dread the kind of mass unrest that could erupt out of a spike in pork prices. A full 65 percent of the country's total protein consumption is pork. The threat of a spontaneous uprising has been made worse by a freak blizzard that paralyzed central China last week—the region's worst in 50 years—stranding mobs of migrant workers on their way home for the Lunar New Year and disrupting shipments of the pig meat that is essential to holiday feasts. Food prices in general, and pork in particular, have been skyrocketing for months. Economic boom times are boosting demand even as the supply has plunged because of shrinking farmlands, rising grain prices and a "blue ear disease" epidemic that forced pig raisers to cull many thousands of hogs.
In an effort to head off serious trouble, Beijing has tapped the country's official "pork reserve." That's no joke, either; it's the actual term for the special stash of meat the Chinese government keeps frozen in case of a sudden crunch—not unlike America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But snowbound shipments of pork probably won't reach many Chinese families' tables in time for the holiday. And the country's underlying agricultural shortages will only get worse. The prospect is something for the whole world to worry about. Experts predict that China, long a major exporter of corn products, will soon become a net importer—possibly this year. When that happens, global grain prices could jump like this year's oil market.
Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:51 am Post subject: Re: PEAK PORK!
crossthread wrote:
Experts predict that China, long a major exporter of corn products, will soon become a net importer—possibly this year. When that happens, global grain prices could jump like this year's oil market.
In 2007 wheat prices doubled do to falling grainstocks and world supplies. It sounds like China may worsen this trend...
NEW YORK - Wheat prices surged above $10 a bushel for the first time ever Monday amid concerns that strong demand globally could result in a grain shortage in the United States next year — worsening food price inflation.
Other commodities markets mostly declined, with energy, other agricultural futures and metals moving lower.
U.S. wheat supplies have dwindled this year as one wheat crop after another worldwide has been damaged by poor weather, most recently in Australia and Argentina. That's sent buyers scrambling for stockpiles at any cost. U.S. wheat exporters already have sold more than 90 percent of the 1.175 billion bushels the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects will be exported during the whole marketing year, which ends in June 2008.
Wheat prices crossing $10 a bushel won't immediately translate into a spike in retail prices for bread, cereal, cookies and other products, experts say. That's partly because companies like Kellogg Co., General Mills Inc., ConAgra Foods Inc. and Kraft Foods Inc. typically protect themselves from price volatility with long-term supply contracts. But analysts say consumers should expect higher prices in the grocery aisle.
...Wheat prices have hit a record high each of the past three trading sessions and have doubled since the start of the year, when wheat traded for about $5 a bushel...
...In the market panics of previous years, prices would rise to a level that developing countries couldn't afford. But it's not clear where that peak is now, said Mark Schultz, analyst with Northstar Commodity...
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: PEAK PORK!
So much for humanity pulling together, as some people hope. Things aren't nearly as bad as they're going to get, and already we get pig theft, a thriving stolen scrap metal market and gas-siphoning.
Things don't have to be that bad. We could take measures to ensure that the necessary amount of fossil fuels are given to agriculture while making a gradual transition to cyclical organic systems and instituting population control measures. But we're not going to do that.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 830 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:51 am Post subject: Re: PEAK PORK!
Pigs are smart and sweet animals if you have ever been around one! You would become a Vegan like me if it was up to you to have to kill one! _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 1542 Location: Nez Perce Nation
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:03 am Post subject: Re: PEAK PORK!
SILENTTODD wrote:
Pigs are smart and sweet animals if you have ever been around one! You would become a Vegan like me if it was up to you to have to kill one!
I'm smelling some putrid porcine poop here. Pigs are generally cranky brutish and greedy ... they're, well, pigs. I had no trouble shooting ours and seeing them slaughtered. But their meat is real tasty. _________________ "Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
Joined: Nov 16, 2007 Posts: 276 Location: Rural Western Idaho
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:24 am Post subject: Re: PEAK PORK!
DomusAlbion wrote:
SILENTTODD wrote:
Pigs are smart and sweet animals if you have ever been around one! You would become a Vegan like me if it was up to you to have to kill one!
Pigs are generally cranky brutish and greedy ... they're, well, pigs. I had no trouble shooting ours and seeing them slaughtered. But their meat is real tasty.
I am disappointed to report that I have to go along with Domus here. Grandma always told me that the pigs she had when she was raising her children were wonderful, sweet, smart creatures. I was really looking forward to raising a few every year, except I was worried that, if they were so wonderful, I might get too attached come slaughter time.
Well, I can't believe it, but I am way more fascinated by and attached to the chickens than I was to the pigs. Plus chickens are MUCH less picky when it comes to eating garden and table scraps -- that really surprised me. Easier to care for, too.
So although the plan is to get more weaner pigs this spring because we like the meat, I don't worry any more about feeling too close to them. We treated and fed them well, and they were just plain cranky critters anyway.
Lumpy _________________ Dean Karnazes : "Run when you can, walk when you have to, crawl if you must; just never give up." --- Jackie Joyner-Kersee: "It is better to look forward & prepare, than to look back & regret."
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject: Re: PEAK PORK!
Things could get even worse for food production in China. Meteorologists are predicting severe sand storms and sever drought in the spring due to La Nina and "abnormal atmospheric circulation."
Severe Sand Storms and Drought _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
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