What will you cut back on to compensate for higher energy prices?
Travel
29%
[ 95 ]
Eating out/Entertainment
27%
[ 89 ]
Groceries
0%
[ 2 ]
Purchases of capital goods
10%
[ 33 ]
Tech Toys: Cell phones, cable TV, etc.
23%
[ 77 ]
Investments
3%
[ 10 ]
Recreation
5%
[ 18 ]
Total Votes : 324
Author
Message
UncoveringTruths Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 04, 2004 Posts: 895
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
Quote:
Easy. The tropical regions of this planet can be cleared and sugarcane planted in its place. Sugarcane is capable of an 8% solar to chemical conversion rate, four times that of corn, high enough to challenge solar voltaics. This sugar can then be fed to bacteria for producing Ethanol. Or, if LS9 Inc. finishes its genetic engineering work, the sugarcane can be fed to bacteria which turn it directly into gasoline.
I'm sorry this is ridiculous! _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
UncoveringTruths wrote:
Quote:
Easy. The tropical regions of this planet can be cleared and sugarcane planted in its place. Sugarcane is capable of an 8% solar to chemical conversion rate, four times that of corn, high enough to challenge solar voltaics. This sugar can then be fed to bacteria for producing Ethanol. Or, if LS9 Inc. finishes its genetic engineering work, the sugarcane can be fed to bacteria which turn it directly into gasoline.
I'm sorry this is ridiculous!
Not to an accountant it ain't. That tropical forest is without value until people do something with it. Never mind the immense release of CO2 that this clearance would cause-we can fix GW with millions of mirrors in outer space. Never mind that tropical soil usually degrades very quickly, so that this is a non-sustainable project, soil-mining as it were-by the time it's unworkable we'll have another source of energy so it won't matter.
I guess the one thing that might stop the project going ahead could be the commercial value of the organisms in the forests, but as for the intrinsic value of the ecosystem itself-there is none. The scary thing is, a lot of people look at the world this way.
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:38 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
Quote:
I'm sorry this is ridiculous!
Obviously it would be unsustainable (and thus unprofitable) to farm the whole of the tropics: if we did so we would probably be producing several times the world's total current energy use, so you are right to point out that I miss-spoke
Obviously we would only need to boost sugarcane production to satisfy the needs not being filled through the other mechanisms: demand destruction, electric, and oil production. Or, more accurately, we don't do anything. The farmers will see the profit opportunity and if they can supply sugar reliably (and thus sustainably) they will. If they cannot then someone else will.
Quote:
Never mind that tropical soil usually degrades very quickly, so that this is a non-sustainable project
Odd, they've been growing sugarcane in the tropics for centuries, so why would sugarcane production suddenly become unsustainable? Brazil already meets its own needs for liquid fuel through Ethanol. I'm no farmer, but surely with hundreds of years of native experience South American farmers know how to farm without destroying the soil. If they are too stupid to figure it out then obviously they will go bankrupt (land is not free, and if you cannot produce more than only a few years you will never recoup your capital invested).
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3422 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
yeahbut - there's a fiction genre built around technological progress that doesn't include oil, called steampunk. Might be up your alley.
Some TOD discussions of LS9: link, link. Heavily dismissive; second one casts doubts on the people involved too. Might be of interest.
Innumerable discussions of sugarcane ethanol, PHEVs, etc. there and here if you want more to chew on. Not the primary focus of this thread of course but scalability is definitely an issue. Brazil supplying 85 mbd out of sugar would take up a lot of land to say the least; and the most dire external factor we face is global warming, which won't be mitigated by cutting down the rest of the Amazon rain forests. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Could you slide your shorts down please?
Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 2:41 am Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
I love the discussion. It brought this thread back from the dead. But I could do with less personal invective. We are here to debate not slur. Thanks.
I think it is clear to most posters here that we do not have a readily available substitute to power our existing infrastructure as it is now being run without petroleum.
However, there are also many people who believe that our present economic system is in any case unsustainable due to the demands it currently places on our environment.
Whatever is unsustainable must end eventually. Perhaps that is a good thing for society in the run long. We can in any case strive to waste less without forfeiting our current very high standard of living as, let us say, measured by the UN Human Development Index, and not by the number of cars in our pots and chickens in our driveways.
That is not wealth, but conspicuous consumption. I am not going to tell anyone to power down, but I certainly do not have a problem if the economics of more expensive or scarce energy forces them to either.
It does seem to me that technological innovation is a push-pull dilemma. We have not fully explored the limits of alternative sources of energy, yet, because so far our rudimentary attempts have proven uneconomical in our current energy mix.
For all I know cellulosic ethanol using bio-mass may become far more efficient than current methods used to produce ethanol. This is both a source of food and fodder. So it really would represent an increase in productivity. Will it be enough? Enough for what? To run a system that many agree is unsustainable in the first place? Or enough to mitigate the transition to a new equilibrium without all that nasty rapid die-off stuff?
I certainly do not know, but Africa, for example, is a very big place for one. And secondly their development problems seem to be largely due to bureacracy, incompetence and corruption, and not due to some inherent lack of resources. They could make a large economic contribution to the world's fuel needs, and help themselves to economically develop, if the science of cellulosic ethanol is improved substantially. That is just one what if scenario. It may never come to pass. But we certainly will not know if we do not try.
I know for a fact that I can heat and light the house on our farm using far less natural gas or electric than we currently use. Some of those efficiency gains require upfront investments. When energy prices were low they did not seem worth it. But now the economics are changing. Geo-thermal being the most expensive technology at the moment, but the one with the highest payback over the life of the house as we already have hot water heating throughout.
The house is already well-insulated, but it can none the less be improved. If worse comes to worse I will stack strawbales around the exterior and then plaster the outside walls. Especially on the north side. A good friend and neighbor of mine lives in a beautiful strawhouse that he built. Its warm and toasty. The building materials came out of his own fields. It isn't any hippy retreat, but a well-crafted home.
Pehaps a few naive examples, but the Internet was also a pipe dream once upon a time as well as everything else we have managed not just to invent, but to commercially develop and distribute on a global scale.
That is not to say that we, collectively, do not face very serious economic challenges. In some case we are still fighting ethnic wars and conflicts over ideology that make little sense. Never mind the resource wars that may happen. So we are really not even focussed on the problems ahead of us. But the sooner we get started the better. The alternative to the future is not much better.
UPDATE: climate change and conflict
Quote:
Global warming is one of the most significant threats facing humankind, researchers warned, as they unveiled a study showing how climate changes in the past led to famine, wars and population declines.
The world's growing population may be unable to adequately adapt to ecological changes brought about by the expected rise in global temperatures, scientists in China, Hong Kong, the United States and Britain wrote in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
I am always wary of the broad conclusions made by scientists with an axe to grind - or the Litany as Bjoern Lomborgabout calls it - of what might happen, but I suppose we have to at least assign a probability to these events occuring and then plan accordingly. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
LoneSnark wrote:
Finally, someone that is not a budding hitler or stalin eager to dictate all our lives by whatever means necessary.
Oh and you were doing so well-well reasoned arguments and civil. Quick word in your shell-like:try not to break the Hitler rule. The Hitler rule is:unless actually discussing WW II, don't mention Hitler if you wish to retain your audience and your own credibility...
Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
You are absolutely right. That is a forum rule. But in my own defense, Duende was suggesting he would dictate how the rest of us would be allowed to live under his rule. I guess I should have just stuck to explaining how I would raise up an army against him. Thanks for the correction
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
All of the above wasn't a choice?
We live very close to the edge of our income, (and no, we don't buy extras) so a rise in gas prices hits us pretty hard. Fortunately, we can reduce our gas consumption by not going anywhere. My job requires me to drive right now, but the cost calculus will make buying a bike attractive soon. I think I can make it to work in a timely manner reasonably safely on a bike.
We're actually trying to move away from the DC area (heck, who isn't) and the extreme frugality we're practicing right now is helping us to save money to facilitate moving out of here.
Joined: Nov 27, 2004 Posts: 217 Location: Federal City, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:10 am Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
LoneSnark wrote:
Quote:
The farmers will see the profit opportunity and if they can supply sugar reliably (and thus sustainably) they will. If they cannot then someone else will.
LoneSnark, historically "profit opportunity" has not incentivized sustainability, but has provided the opposite motivation.
LoneSnark wrote:
Quote:
Odd, they've been growing sugarcane in the tropics for centuries, so why would sugarcane production suddenly become unsustainable? Brazil already meets its own needs for liquid fuel through Ethanol. I'm no farmer, but surely with hundreds of years of native experience South American farmers know how to farm without destroying the soil. If they are too stupid to figure it out then obviously they will go bankrupt...
Please consider the scale necessary to accomplish this. Then consider the environmental impacts of monocropping such a large, ecologically sensitive area. This is not a long term solution, and those are the only type we should be pursuing - we cannot mine the Earth forever, as our natural resource dowry is finite.
LoneSnark wrote:
Quote:
This conversation is no longer fun. It has taken a very dark turn of you trying to tell the rest of humanity how it should live. You are just another Hitler, Stalin, or Mao. If you ever attain any political power I shall raise up an army against you in the name of liberty, justice, and the enlightenment. God willing, we shall defeat your tyranny.
Very melodramatic, LoneSnark. Do you moonlight as a soap opera scriptwriter?
LoneSnark - your conservation abilities thus far are preventing you from adequately or convincingly conveying your message. Please state your objection clearly. My belief is that government should (1) acknowledge the existence of Peak Oil, and (2) act in the best interests of the citizenry by encouraging a self-imposed powerdown. Now, I'm not sure if you're familiar with that term or not. I suspect you're not. It's actually the title of a book by Richard Heinberg which I highly recommend. The book, and several others like it might clarify the entailments of such a program to you. Additionally, you may want to familarize yourself with the Oil Depletion Protocol. None of these proposals involve a committed slide into an unsavory political regime (at least not any as bad as we currently endure, anyway). _________________ Shop 'til you drop? Guess what time it is.
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:56 am Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
Quote:
Please consider the scale necessary to accomplish this. Then consider the environmental impacts of monocropping such a large, ecologically sensitive area.
I don't have to, they will do it for me. I don't know what farmers you have been hanging out with, but I grew up on a farm. All farmers dream of their children inheriting the land for generations. This is why the land was rotated regularly to prevent nutrient starvation, irrigated properly to avoid erosion, and large sections left to forest as a sink to keep the land that was farmed stable. Why you believe South American farmers are somehow less intelligent than my family requires explanation.
Quote:
we cannot mine the Earth forever, as our natural resource dowry is finite.
Farming is a means of mining the sun for energy, not the Earth. Any good farmer puts back into the soil whatever was taken out. Why do you believe South American farmers are chronically bad at it?
Quote:
My belief is that government should...act in the best interests of the citizenry by encouraging a self-imposed powerdown...The book, and several others like it might clarify the entailments of such a program to you. None of these proposals involve a committed slide into an unsavory political regime
My belief is that government should act in the best interests of the citizenry by doing nothing directly on this issue. Educate people about Peak Oil, draw up and publish forecasts of future oil supplies and prices (the current futures price is a good estimate), and keep a strategic reserve for instances of war. As oil supply falls the price will rise to encourage people to voluntarily powerdown those activities that are of lowest value.
Nevertheless, I have read the book of which you speak. As I read, all I could think of was the battle to turn his proposals into legislation and then enforce it, which would be a very real nightmare. Attempting to ban the use of illicit drugs, which most people would never use anyway, has landed over a million Americans in prison and turned many American cities into war-zones. Now you want to ban the free use of oil, something every American wants and feels entitled to use? There is no way you are going to get the police and courts to enforce such restrictions, resulting not just in widespread lawlessness but open revolt from lower levels of government. You might single handedly destroy law and order, but hopefully history would settle for a civil war and your death.
And what would you accomplish? Nothing. After devastating society and killing millions, oil consumption would quickly grow to consume the available supply as the market price was once again acting to efficiently allocate just another resource.
Joined: Nov 27, 2004 Posts: 217 Location: Federal City, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
LoneSnark, yes there is the distinct possibility that those negative outcomes which you cite could arise in a powerdown scenerio, especially if it was implemented poorly or unfairly. I'm not saying it would be easy. However, if we depend upon economic indicators blindly before changing behavior, it will be too late to introduce alternatives, or potentially too late to reverse climate change. Individuals acting on their own will not sustain a critical mass in changing course. Addressing peak oil will require a well-coordinated effort. The government's job is to facilitate publicly valuable goals. Isn't the preservation of a livable planet a greater good to be pursued? It's doubtful that people can rise above their selfish nature to address the causes individually. Sometimes progressive efforts need to be validated by government recognition and encouragement, whatever form it comes in. Those economic triggers which you have so much faith in will not act in time; it will be the equivalent of hitting the breaks a moment before hitting the wall. _________________ Shop 'til you drop? Guess what time it is.
Joined: Nov 27, 2004 Posts: 217 Location: Federal City, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
LoneSnark wrote:
Quote:
This is why the land was rotated regularly to prevent nutrient starvation, irrigated properly to avoid erosion, and large sections left to forest as a sink to keep the land that was farmed stable.
Any good farmer puts back into the soil whatever was taken out.
Well, that's my point - they aren't good farmers. I mean, I applaud your family's sustainable methods - it's just that many megafarm operations are less concerned about such "inefficiencies." The majority of them dump tons of "-cides" on the soil, which coincidentally are produced with petroleum inputs. Hardly sustainable. _________________ Shop 'til you drop? Guess what time it is.
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:24 pm Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
Quote:
Well, that's my point - they aren't good farmers.
Then we have a weeding out process. Bad farmers will go broke once their land is dead. Good farmers will buy it up and use their 300 years worth of skills to recouperate the soil and make the farm profitable again. Where we live my family has on numerous occasions be given exhausted land to farm rent-free for several years because the previous share-cropper was an idiot.
Quote:
However, if we depend upon economic indicators blindly before changing behavior, it will be too late to introduce alternatives, or potentially too late to reverse climate change.
Ok, this is two separate subjects. Climate change is a different problem: diffuse costs with concentrated benefits. To put it another way, the benefits of burning oil and the costs of global warming are often different individuals. As such, climate change would require governmental involvement in the form of carbon taxes or some other form of emissions regulation to protect the latter from the former.
But peak oil is nothing of the sort: those under threat from high oil prices are those that use oil. The latter and the former are the same individuals because the costs are born by those that benefit. As such, there is no issue of free-riders or externalities. Therefore, the only issue is educating oil users about their own liabilities.
And the surest way to educate them is to drive up oil prices today, which can be done very easily and would make you filthy rich in the process. Get together with your fellow peak-oil friends and buy a bunch of oil wells and stop production. Buying oil today will drive up prices today, signaling others to begin reducing their dependence on oil today. In the future, when oil finally does become rediculous scarce and prices shoot up, sell your oil for a huge profit. Selling in the future will reduce prices in the future; you get filthy rich and everyone benefits from lower prices in the future and a head start on reducing consumption today.
If you believe peak oil will be a problem then you would be a monster not to buy as many oil wells today as you can afford and shut them down for future use.
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