Ask The Experts: Intro.

grungerock · Tar Sands Joined: Jun 07, 2004 Posts: 23 Location: Sydney

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1088060159-9e32d306-10240

Opec is pumping more!

Aaron · Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 6:23 am Post subject:

You can point correspondence for ASPO at Kjell. aleklett@tsl.uu.se
He may not respond since they are quite busy.

If you have something really hot... forward to me and I'll pass it along.
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The_Virginian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 19, 2004 Posts: 1422

um, sorry, missed Aarons qeustion on abiotic oil (mineral).

Otherwise, I see most of my questions as fitting in the "not yet asked" catagory.
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Aaron · Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 3:27 pm Post subject:

1. The methodology for estimating potential discoveries of oil is expressed by the USGS in F5, F50, & F95 probabilities. Given the decline in significant new discoveries of oil in recent history, is averaging F5 & F95 predictions still a valid approach for determining the mean estimate?

2. I have a simulation program on my computer that shows my oil field, the pipes extracting the oil, the pipes pumping in displacement (water), the storage tanks, the loading dock and the tanker loading pipes.

Engineering mass balance is frequently used to average out [make negligible] variations in density, compressibility, meter limits and other measurement constraints.

In reality, how is physical material accounting done real-time in the field so that my computer monitor shows actual, reliable numbers in each transition-point box? Assuming any and all metering devices function at a 99.95% or higher accuracy over their useful service life.

3. Imagine I'm standing on a square piece of land that's 25 miles long on each side. I want to know if there's a detectable amount of crude oil anywhere between the surface and the mantle. How (by what means, technology and/or methods) can I be 95 to 99% certain that there isn't any oil there? Assume for now that the surface profile doesn't vary by any more than 100 feet.

4. Abiotic oil formation. Fact or Fiction?

5. How thoroughly explored is Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Persian Gulf for potential oil fields?

6. Is Ghawar in terminal decline, or is it even possible to know?
http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html

7. Does any public data exist supporting Saudi claims for sustained production increases through 2050?

8. Does pressure injection and horizontal drilling affect the depletion rate of an oil field? If so, by how much?

9. Are there any large new oil discoveries on the radar?

10. To what extent is the geology of oil & gas understood, and has the world “looked in all the good places” already, as some claim?

11. Was M. King Hubbert correct that production of mineral resources will follow a bell curve for production?

12. ASPO predicts 2007, as it’s current guess for peak in production of most hydrocarbons globally. Given the lack of transparency in reserves, can any prediction come close?

13. What is the “best guess” for total endowment of oil worldwide?

14. Can improvements to technology significantly increase the extraction rates from current levels? (Unrecoverable becomes recoverable?)

15. What is the “best guess” for peak production of hydrocarbon resources, per resource? (Oil, gas, coal, etc…)

16. Can new technologies prolong peak with "flat" production that will skew ASPO's predictions for a @2008 peak in oil production, and then a very fast decline? How has this possibility been taken into account?

17. How far will Venezuela's oil extend the tail end of the oil age?

18. Where and when Will the next ASPO conference be held, and is the USA (Texas?) even a remote possibility for maximum media attention?

19. On a personal level, what specific "renewable" technology do you have the most hope for in respect to the future?
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"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.

Praise HawkMan

Soft_Landing · Heavy Crude Joined: May 28, 2004 Posts: 377

1. What is the typical amount of error in the estimation of the size of an oil field? More precisely, what is the typical relationship between P90 and P50 for typical mature fields/ countries?

2. BP claims to be reporting P90 numbers in it's report. Then it proceeds to add these numbers. Is BP adding P90 numbers as it claims (and hence estimating world reserve extremely conservatively), or are they actually using P50 numbers?

Soft_Landing · Heavy Crude Joined: May 28, 2004 Posts: 377

I wonder what's happening with these.

EnviroEngr · Posted: Tue Jul 13, 2004 9:49 pm Post subject: U 2?

Synchronicity... I've been having that same question run through my head.
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WebHubbleTelescope · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 08, 2004 Posts: 909

Survey:

MikeT · Coal Joined: Aug 25, 2004 Posts: 4

A number of the questions raised are addressed in established literature from people such as Colin J Campbell and Richard Heinberg. By way of example 'Abiotic Oil' (Q4) is largely discounted in Colin's The Coming Oil Peak where he points out that chemical analysis of crude oil allows one to identify its biological source - and that oil is found in locations that have both sedimentary source rocks and a means of capturing the resultant oil that eventually develops. The same book gives an extremely extensive analysis of the potential for finding further oil reserves (Q9) (Q10) - the limitations were becoming apparent back in the 1960s. Combining a detailed understanding of oil formation and 10s of years in the development of exploration methods there seems little doubt that the great majority of the world's oil has been found (say 90%+).

I'm sure the experts will be more than happy to answer these questions with sufficient time. Equally individuals who have read the literature should be able to match the question with existing answers.

Regards

Mike

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Fri Aug 27, 2004 6:12 pm Post subject: My long winded question

This question could be asked of several of the experts.

When fuel is harvested from the Earth. A certain percentage of the energy gained from the fuel is lost in the process of harvesting and transporting it to its final usage. Thus giving a net gain. When the net gain drops to zero the fuel will not be economical to harvest as a fuel source anymore. Or It requires so much energy to obtain energy.

SO, Many ideas are being looked at as possible solutions to the worlds energy problem. With the different forms of energy carriers known at this time. Understanding that each energy source has a percentage of its own power that is required to sustain itself. Do you believe that nuclear, wind, solar powers can sustain there own energy requirements and the requirements of the carriers to be able to continue or sustain itself while still delivering energy to the public?

next questions

Do you personally believe mankind is headed for Olduvai Gorge or do you see a different picture?

What do you predict the energy picture will be in 100 or 200 even 300 years if no advances are made in technology?

If you could speak to the leaders of your country and to the public in your country tomorrow. What would you tell them?
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Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Mon Dec 13, 2004 10:59 pm Post subject: questions

I have cut out some questions from this thread and sent them to Colin Campbell.

I know that many of the questions being asked are answered if studing of ASPO is done. These guys have been at this for awhile and have hugh amounts of data in and hugh amounts of data and expert opionions out.

Did anybody know that the world is thought to be past mid point?
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EnviroEngr · Posted: Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:18 am Post subject: Re: Ask the experts

Will be re-organizing content in here to make it more readable shortly...
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| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
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NEOPO · Posted: Wed Nov 02, 2005 12:38 pm Post subject: Re: Ask the experts

I would like to ask the experts:

If the remaining sour crude has an estimated 60% energy density as compared to sweet light - have not we in effect passed peak oil based simply on a energy density basis?

Since it all comes down to energy density I would think we hit peak oil somewhere during the 1980's.

PWALPOCO · Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: Ask The Experts: Intro.

I would like to ask the experts ;

As they are aware , around the world there are isolated Natural Gas supply problems. While NG isnt technically at peak production yet , some of the local challenges (due to NG supplies localised nature) seem similar to predicted Peak Oil problems.

Prices , and availability are proving problematic in some places. Do "our experts" believe that the governments are more likely to be receptive to the idea of peak oil now that some of the flaws in energy supply/demand have been highlighted by NG ? How do you think the mood of Governments will be affected ?

Paul