Earth Day in the shadow of the peak

Pops

Thirty-four years ago the newly educated boomers were dancing with flowers in their hair celebrating earth day. They all had ZPG stickers on their Volkswagens.

Today we in the US have the highest birth rate of any industrial nation, our vehicles’ average Miles Per Gallon are the highest in 20 years, and of course we suck down 26% of the worlds oil.

Back then we fired the guy who had the audacity to suggest we actually put on sweaters, turn down the thermostat and look at alternative sources of energy. We replaced him with a guy who promised “A new morning in America” - he had the solar panels torn off the white house right away. The guy in there now has resurrected and executed (to the best of his ability) the old plan to invade the oil countries if oil started getting short.*

Not many people in ’70 thought that the US would ever run out of oil. In fact 1970 or thereabouts was the highest point in US production, it’s been declining since. Not many people today think the US is ever to run out of natural gas, or the world out of oil, some believe we are at those peaks right now, which I find pretty ironic.

Although total world energy consumption per capita has continued to rise dramatically, world oil consumption per capita has been flat after rising till the early 70’s.**

The idealistic youth of the 70’s turned into the most selfesh and wasteful generation the world has known, and while they cleaned up their own back yards, they’ve basically ransacked the rest of the “earth”.

Perhaps that’s why they were dancing 34 years ago. I wonder if their grandkids will be dancing in 2038.

* http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3333995.stm
** http://pages.ca.inter.net/~jhwalsh/oilcapv.pdf

Pops
I know, there are alternatives.

Atr0p0s · Moderator Joined: Apr 08, 2004 Posts: 119

I found out it was earth day by looking at the google image above the search bar. No doubt to me that it is overshadowed in the mind of the knowing by peak oil.

Lister · Coal Joined: Apr 25, 2004 Posts: 8

Aaron · Posted: Sat Apr 24, 2004 7:24 pm Post subject: ...

The industrial category Pops references, is significant because the industrial, or developed world has a much lower birth rate than developing nations. The only reason the US population is growing is from immigration, not births.

It matters little if the population grows…unless it grows past out potential to support it. But economic growth is the basis for 20th century standards of living. Without economic growth, the lifestyle enjoyed by prosperous nations is probably not sustainable.

Pops · Posted: Sat Apr 24, 2004 7:44 pm Post subject:

Hi Lister, glad you wrote.

I like babies; and Hummers, and air-conditioning, and hot water, cheap crap at Wal-Mart, and airfreight tomatoes from Peru at Christmas.

I have 3 kids (2 from my wife’s previous marriage) and 5 grand kids. If I may brag, one granddaughter placed fourth in the OK state gymnastics meet today! AND my 4-year-old granddaughter got first-place at HER first gym fun meet (she said, sort of confusedly, everyone got first place?).

Anyway:

In 1970 the US Population was 203,000,000, in 2003 almost 291,000,000.* Your point is taken, the rate is finally declining, however I will point out it is mainly due to the Boomers aging beyond the childbearing years – the boomers with the ZPG stickers in ‘70.

My point regarding “Industrialized” nations was to note that typically, as a population gains wealth and especially when it’s women become better educated, the birth rate declines. Contrast that with the “ME” generation’s “Echo Boom” through ‘90.

Earth Day, I think, was conceived to help people see the environment as taking care of us; instead of there for our taking. And the more of us there are; the more we take.

IMHO, considering the general topic of this board, if you like and want to teach a child how to cope with a future that they (or their children at the most) will inhabit, your rate should be .5. It will take everything you have to learn and pass along what that one needs to know.

In the same vein, if you read and become convinced that oil constitutes a “Phantom Carrying Capacity”, then regardless of the number of years you feel there is a before constriction in the oil supply, a declining population today will mean less “die off” then - many people like “babies” but don’t care so much for “people”.

Write again soon!

Pops

* http://www.nemw.org/pop.htm

Pops · Posted: Sat Apr 24, 2004 7:50 pm Post subject:

Just noted Aarons post.

Many would argue that the world’s carrying capacity without oil is only a fraction of todays.

I also concur regarding the “Growth Economy”. It will end and that is the biggest problem.

Pops

(I forgot, I must add my own sig.)

I know… there are alternatives.