I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
college is a must. he's not going to have enough $ to make appropriate preparations if he stays in the fast food industry! Plus, we have a lot more than 4 years. Unless you're an uber-pessimist.
i agree education can only help him in every possible way. however i'm not convinced right now that college education is a great idea for many people, not just our friend here. the way the employment market is looking, white collar jobs, anything depending on intellectual capital , are heading out of the country at an alarming rate. i am working on my 3rd college degree partly because of this phenomenon. it's cost me a fortune to retrain. if i'd gotten a trade to begin with, i'd be in much better shape. trades address basic necessities of living and will ALWAYS be needed as long as the technology they support is in use. nobody is going to ship cars overseas to be fixed; noone is going to ship their air conditioners or whatever oversease to be fixed. noone is going to ship their horse overseas to be shod, or their gun overseas to be repaired, or pay someone oversease to sew and wear their clothes for them. Medical skills, trade skills, deal with immediacies and ALSO translate well into both soft and hard landing scenarioes. i just wish to god i'd listened to my instincts when i was 18 instead of my parents and teachers because quite frankly, i had it right the first time, but i lacked conviction. and that was a different world.
once he gets a trade, if higher education is a good idea, he will have a hell of a lot easier time putting himself through school, and won't have to go into debt to do it. this is the course i'm recommending for all my BF's kids, none of whom will have anyone paying their way. His eldest could get HVAC certified in a matter of months and make a very fair living wage anywhere in the country. it's a lot more practical than working in the car wash the way he is now. he doesn't really want to go to college and he's not exactly the office type. which i understand completely. it's a LOT of time and money to invest in something that gives you no certainty or job security at all these days, especially to prepare to do- what, if you don't know what you want or what you are good at? in fact, i've been reading how the bachelors is the new high school diploma. you REALLY need a masters to stand out and get a decent paying white collar job. and a masters is extremely expensive; paid programs are unbelievably competitive. they can also be brutally hard. i've done two, i haven't been happy about either one. if i could have gotten a loan for it, i would have gotten a two year degree in radiology for 4k or something else practical with a decent employment outlook, but i outclassed myself from any financial aid for 2-year degrees when i completed my bachelors. so instead i borrowed another 60k for my 2nd masters. gotta love how the system is set up.
if you don't want a trade, consider going for an EMT or something else along the 2-year line. what interests you? what do you enjoy? what do you hate doing? see i can't really stomach the sight of blood, so emergency medicine is probably not a good choice for me. it's a weakness i don't understand or like about myself, but i know i'm squeamish - i'll actually faint, i'm very embarassed to say. i'm great with almost anything else, health-wise; i'm an intuitive treater, but no surgeon. maybe i could get over it if i had to, i sure as hell hope so. but would i plan a livelihood around it? probably not!!! on the other hand i have great hand-eye coordination, and i like building things, so sewing is right up my alley; so is shooting and using tools. i love wood; i might have been a decent, and happy, carpenter.
if you are GOOD at something, you are much more likely to enjoy using the skill and get a sense of satisfaction instead of boredom and frustration from your job. cause after all if the market hangs on for more than the next few years, you might be stuck with it for a wihle but then again once you've lived a little you may figure out what suits you better.
nobody is going to ship cars overseas to be fixed; noone is going to ship their air conditioners or whatever oversease to be fixed. noone is going to ship their horse overseas to be shod, or their gun overseas to be repaired, or pay someone oversease to sew and wear their clothes for them.
i meant to qualify this statement as being *in a PO world* - obviously we do pay people to sew our clothes oversease now, and many other services and products. my point is that something just aren't practical to outsource, especially as transportation costs rise. wherease communication is the cheapest form of transporation - transporting information. so in the U.S., professions relying on *knowledge and virtual expertise* will continue to move offshore where labor is much cheaper.
Im not going to make a debate on how long I think we have until serious effects will be felt, but I personaly feel that we will have a major crisis before Bush steps out of office in 2008. Our economy alone wont last 4 more years if it continues what it is doing now, I dont think increasing oil production will last that long either, and signs are showing a peak before 2006. Once again this is only my opinion, but saying we have more then four years before something dramatic happeneds is not realistic when looking at the facts (our economy, our (hated) leadership, our oil 'situation', our war intentions, etc.). Theres so much that can happen and go wrong in 4 years, but then again, if we get lucky things may go smoothly, war will cease, tentions will ease, and people will stop caring that oil production will soon peak and all countries will face tough times.
Soo.. being the somewhat 'hippie' that I am (at least if you catagorize me by the music I listen to and the mindset I hold with my country/and life in general), I was always lead onto college, and I actualy wanted to go to college my whole life. But recently after learning the 'knowledge' of our impending situation, my hippie side kicked in and I really did not see the point. Going to college will only enter you into 'the system' of our world economics/capitolism that has lead us into this mess. You can spend you time learning skills, perfecting trades and gaining an education that can be applied in the real world. You can learn about defense, horticulture, writing, and real survival skills, instead of taking 'required' courses that serve you no benefit when living life simpily.
In my 18 year old head, I want to spend my time preparing me for the future in the most fruitful way. Going to college did not seem the most useful for the post-oil world. I dont see a point to get a 'college education' (or that peice of paper you use to get jobs) when many feilds which require them will be inexistant in the years to come. Think short term as well as long term. In 5 years, if stuff started to get bad, what boat would you be in? If you were in college, you would not be nearly as prepared/educated on how to live. If you neglected college, and picked up some useful skills, you would be in a much better situation. Not to mention all the money you saved from not going to college, which you could use to prepare for that day when things get tough. Being a college student, your either living the college life (work, class, study, party when you can) - or your not. If your not, you can spend your time doing the things you wish instead of doing what you *need* for that peice of paper
Joined: Oct 10, 2004 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:05 am Post subject:
Quote:
Going to college will only enter you into 'the system' of our world economics/capitolism that has lead us into this mess.
You've said some good stuff, but that's a little cliche:P. Anyway...
I am in the latter half of my sophomore of college and don't plan on leaving. I am majoring in English but thinking of working on a minor in Earth and Enviromental Sciences, as well. In addition to summer school, I am also planning to accelerate the graduation process by taking on more than the avg. amount of hours per semester. I might attempt to learn a few practical skills on the way. Ultimately, however, I am rolling the dice and relying on my youth, health and work ethnic. Whatever happens, happens. _________________ "Abortion doctors aren't baby killers. They're life un-ruiners"
What ever you do, for God's sake don't rush in to anything. Don't quit your job and go running for the hills in a fit of "ahh, we're screwed!", even a bloodyawful job like McDonalds is better than no job.
What you do is largely dependant on what you think will happen, I don't forsee a hard crash any time soon so I'm carrying on with my degree as normal for now. If you think the same it's worth getting training in something applicable, (of course, my tuition is paid by the government - and much less than in the US anyway - which influences me somewhat).
I'd start walking everywhere you can, myself, exercise is good and you'll get lots of time while you're doing it to think over your plan.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5653 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2005 12:32 pm Post subject:
If I was in college now I would finish, unless it would drive me into more than ~$10000 debt. I would probably not start out now, though, unless I had a compelling reason to think it would give me an advantage in a crisis scenario. In fact I had plans to go back to grad school this year which I have (with much sadness) abandoned due to the global situation. I am devoting all my resources into becoming self sufficient instead.
I am not convinced that a SHTF scenario will materialize in the next 4 years, but I think the risk is significant enough to warrant preparation.
I am a member of Cornell University class of 2009, electrical and computer engineering major. i plan on doing research on solar power generation and other electricity-related areas which will be in huge demand in the runup to PO.
I'm 'half' in college right now myself. Dropped out of U of Rochester a few years ago due to personal/family issues, and lack of motivation, plus I just didn't like it.. Now taking a couple classes, got a part time decent office job to pay rent. Because of my personality, I think I am definitely going to have to start my own business, even if its just owning a bar or being a plumber or something. I have a serious allergy to organizations and taking orders!
I think like most things, college is for some people and not for others. I break it down this way- College is for:
A: Improving your mind, becoming a more complete person
B: Learning things you need to know to work in an area you love
C: To get the 'piece of paper' , that is, to be more attractive to employers
D: For fun, don't know what else to do after high school
When I went to school, it was because of D mostly, and a bit of C. Dumb idea! I should have taken time off after high school.
Few people these days really go to school for the purpose of A, I believe. This is what has led to the decline in the quality and meaning of a 'college education' in my opinion.
I believe that as the economy slides, the importance of C will decline, as employers look more towards practical skills- with the exception of degrees in technical fields, which will remain important. Remember that the more people that go to college, the less it means. A lot of employers are more impressed with other things, even now.
Some people in this post obviously are going to school for the purpose of B, which I think is great and definitely the right choice. There's really no other way to advance physics, for example, than to go to school for it. If you have a 'dream', and it required college, do it.
BUT
Going to college takes time, money, and time is money of course.. If you don't enjoy it, I DON'T think its worth going to school for a liberal arts or social sciences degree on the assumption that its going to make you wealthier in long run. UNLESS you love one of those subjects so much its worth all the work, or you just have lots of money.
I might suggest looking at jobs in the railroad industry. It would definitely be better than fast food, and I've heard that they're having a hard time finding people. That is one industry that will probably have a renaissance in the next few decades, and it might be a good career path for a high school grad.
Don't underestimate how much a good show of enthusiasm and dedication matters at job interviews!
Plenty of other options with similar benefits of course.. Spend some time thinking about what kind of work you enjoy, with an emphasis on thinking about day to day stuff..
(can you handle strict schedules, are you social or solitary, you like sitting down all days or moving around.. things like that I believe are a lot more important to satisfaction than we give credit)
Good luck
by the way, I'm 21, found out about PO 3 years ago, and am a 'medium-lander'
Joined: Dec 25, 2004 Posts: 446 Location: Salem, MA
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2005 10:08 pm Post subject:
fossil_fuel wrote:
I am a member of Cornell University class of 2009, electrical and computer engineering major. i plan on doing research on solar power generation and other electricity-related areas which will be in huge demand in the runup to PO.
well i'm about 10 years behind you, but i'm considering the same path myself. i'm an audio engineer with a sociology degree but will probably be going back to school to get an EE degree. i've also been checking out certification programs in solar systems installation. from the contacts i've made i get the idea that the job market is slim... but it's growing and certainly should grow much faster as we pass the peak and start the decline... _________________ UNLESS
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but then again once you've lived a little you may figure out what suits you better.
