Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?

virgincrude

Mkwin said: “In terms of our PO capabilities- both the UK and Europe will be in a relatively good position IMO. We get very little electricity from oil; we have good access to gas and are well on our way to building a renewable energy grid. Once we hit peak oil this process could quicken with governmental lead to displace our gas electricity production.”

I’m not sure what your fellow Englishmen would have to say about this rosy view of the UK’s position (you might like to read the forums at Powerswitch.org.uk.) Where is your government lead right now, bearing in mind that many now see we are already in the undulating plateau of Post Peak? Free solar panels for all? The recent increase in airport tax did nothing to dissuade 6 million British people from flying to Spain for some sun, sand and cheap alcohol last year alone. And where do you get your gas from?

Lowering taxes on fuel isn’t going to make more fuel miraculously arrive at the pumps. How’s Sainsbury’s going to stock its shelves when the oil runs out?

“One final point - I'm from the UK and I can summerise the general opinion of the European project here.” We know, you sit in splendid isolation, objecting to the euro, to the open borders policy and therefore you’re judging everything from your Island viewpoint, not from the viewpoint of those who sit inside a more participative europe, like the Poles and others here who have posted.

“We are also comfortable with big government intervention”

-but not comfortable with big European directives.

“Oh and the Euro is a stupid idea. A once size fits all monetary policy does not work – look at Spain/Ireland and Italy, completely different monetary needs to Germany and France.”

That must be why …

(BBC)

Eurozone growth beats forecasts

The eurozone has seen greater year-on-year growth than the US
The eurozone saw solid growth in the first three months of 2007, beating expectations, official figures show.

The 13-country area's economy grew 3.1% year-on-year - below the 3.3% growth seen in the previous quarter, but beating the 2.9% forecast.

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 3076 Location: UK

The EU doesn't have a future in its present form, that is, as an economic and legal entity aspiring to homogeneity.

In times of economic distress, your world shrinks, you turn your attention inwards. We are seeing growing signs of energy nationalism, and within a few years, important producers such as Russia will probably follow Venezuela's lead and openly state it as policy. We see the same "I'm looking out for myself, screw everyone else!" attitude from individual members of this forum. And it makes sense. Which is why I expect consumer countries (ie OECD, EU, whatever other bloc) to follow suit, albeit late in the game.

The EU as it exists today, is of course not compatible with the depression/nationalist paradigm. It seeks to regulate law and policy, with a special focus on economic areas, for the greater good of the European community. It is a fair weather mechanism. It has not been designed for any evironment but economic prosperity. It has never in its present form been tested by a world economic downturn, and has never had to learn lessons and make adaptations.

Thus, when the economic policy of the European community turns to local firefighting, the EU will become a barrier to progress. Will it step aside and allow its principles in energy, transport, agricultural and monetary policy to be over-ruled each in a different way by all of its member countries? Will it yield in its position on power infrastructure ownership unbundling once blackout-struck countries start deciding it is not the time for even greater deregulation and a command economy approach is called for? And the same in so many other areas? Continuing on the path to common labour laws in a time of national emergencies?

No, the EU will be obsolete, the only way it will survive is if the name is stamped on something quite different.

Fredrik

Madpaddy · Expert Joined: Jun 25, 2004 Posts: 2128

I think Europe will remain united. However, if Turkey is admitted, all bets are off. The addition of 70million Turks may be too much for the system to handle. If the Turkish workers inundate other member states, countries may opt to leave the EU so they can implement immigration policies. The likes of Ireland and the UK are barely managing with the Eastern European influx and this is during a boom time in those countries. Also, culturally Eastern Europeans, especially Poles are similar to the Irish.

IMO, there is almost no integration of Eastern Europeans taking place in Ireland. There are so many here now that they don't even need to attempt to learn English. Almost all construction and hospitality and retail jobs are taken by Poles. If a couple of hundred thousand Turks was added to this mix in the future where tings were getting worse economically, there would be a clamour here for the country to bow out of the European experiment.
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Alcassin

Thanks to Mighty Nordic Pagan Gods I've been to Ireland when there was no Poles, six years ago.

Last summer my friend went to Dublin to meet his friend working there in IT. On the streets of Dublin they switched language to English... too many Poles around there are simply beggars, they don't even know a word in English. Poles just overwhelmed Irish labour market...

I truly don't see future of EU in bright colours. But if you want to keep peace, integration and interdependance are needed. In time of crises the selfishness is causing more conflicts than it does during prosperity.
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The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.

Licho

Nation-states are relatively new idea. They emerged just in recent history.

In the past, nationality and state were seperate issues. There were dozens of nations in great countries of the past.
And medieval Europe was total mess in this respect.

I don't see a reason why those two issues can't be separated again.

Alcassin

EnergyUnlimited · Fusion Joined: May 15, 2006 Posts: 3310

Alcassin

Well, likely - depends who will get nukes if countries will fall apart. It's another chance for building up spheres of influence. And I wouldn't say that the world will be sliced in that matter.

Frankly, this became highly speculative thread, and I think that we are exaggarating nonexisting problems Wink

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The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.

Licho

In today's world wars usually don't pay off. Especially in Europe where you trade with all of your neighbours and there are no raw resources to plunder.

kevincarter

The future of the Union is that of several countries that are next to eachother and want to keep a lifestyle ages diffrent from their immediate poor neighbours (African and far Easterns) and they know that staying together is the best way to do it. In that context we must not forget that the energy crisis will be devastating for third word cities, and that people living there will have a grown deisre to come here. And that will be seen as a threat. The threat on people's minds will be not to die, but to become third worlders.
Everyone will play its role in Europe acording to its strengths, that does not mean we're gonna have a blue flag with a circle of stars in every home, but that we'll defend what we have in common by all menas and that we'll keep for ourselves what we do not have in common.
Dudes, we made it past the inquisition, the black peast, the middle ages, WWII, comunism... PO is peanuts!
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When someone interprets as derogatory almost anything that is said about him (or about groups with whom he identifies) we conclude that he has inferiority feelings or low self-esteem.

Bas · Last edited by Bas on Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:13 am; edited 1 time in total

Bas