For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6374 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:04 pm Post subject: [Location] The New Small Town?
This is a compilation of some threads from the Wayback file relating to thoughts about a resurgence of small town life in America in the face of PO.
Hopefuly it will spark new discussion
Sitting here looking out the window (though I should be working) I’m trying to imagine the US in 30 years or so.
I read recently (sorry no link) that a majority of folks would “like” to live in a small town or on a farm rather than in a city. “People won’t flee the cities” is probably true as far as it goes. The city will always have a greater variety of products to buy and work to do. But in a future with dwindling energy supplies and a shrinking economy, I wonder if the advantages of the city (and of course the suburbs) won’t shrink to the point as to be nonexistent?
I mentioned on another thread, there are 1,000s of small towns drying up all across the country. Their downtown shops vacant, mainly due to mobility, industrial agriculture and huge retailers; read “cheap oil”.
I don’t know what, if anything, will replace oil for transportation; but today a full 20% of our total commodity transportation is for food (1.). This of course is, as the ADM commercial puts it, because food is produced where it grows the best then is shipped everywhere else - sounds like a good idea if transport is cheap forever. Of course that ignores all the other failings of global food trade but the article below does a better job of critiquing that.
It’s truly hard to imagine the changes that will have to take place in agriculture in order for more food to be grown locally, and possibly reawaken small town America - or if those changes will be made at all. Ag is now hugely concentrated; “Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland, control 70 to 80 percent of the world's grain trade. One agribusiness, Philip Morris, gets ten cents out of every American food dollar - more than earned by all US farmers combined.” (1.)
The US spends huge amounts of tax dollars for the benefit of corporate farms. Changing the policies, treaties, and subsidies that benefit “Agribusiness” alone will be a huge undertaking and it certainly won’t be looked on kindly by its lobbyists.
As has often been noted, barring some miracle new technology, small, local production of as many needs as necessary will almost certainly be the future. It’s not a Norman Rockwell painting I’m thinking of (I was just swamping out the barn and spreading manure on the garden) but I can’t see the option.
Perhaps a mixture of popular movement like the back-to-the-land movement of the ‘60s coupled with recognition by gov that this isn’t business as usual can enable the change. Or maybe Cargil and ADM will simply go the way of the airlines and Enron.
One thing we can all do, no matter where we live now, is to shun as much of the global economy as possible. Join a food co-op or CSA, visit the farmers market and buy from small, local retailers and producers. Eat things that are in season in your area and preserve the excess. Not only will you will be training yourself and your family for the future, you will be promoting exactly the type of community that has the best chance to survive that future.
Well, one thing that history has shown is that governments (and people in general) don't react to an impending disaster until it's too late. Just look at history... preventable Airline accidents from known mechanical or design defects, airline accidents due to poor FAA pilot procedures, poor airport security prior to 9/11, known automobile design defects causing deaths from accidents, etc. Change doesn't come easy if it costs money. That is why I think we are going to hit a brick wall after peak oil. Soft landing? No way. Prepare yourselves now while there is still time.
Large population centers have existed throughout history: Rome, Baghdad, Alexandria, Constantinople, Cairo, Istanbul, Paris, London etc. many of these cities supported populations of well over one million without modern transport. Food supply does not seem such a big issue. The water supply and thus the ability of the city to maintain a certain level of hygiene and disease control appears to be more pressing.
Another factor is that humans are naturally drawn to cities. Humans want to achieve. They do not necessarily what is best for them. If you present an actor the choice between a certain job at a local broadcaster or a small and all but certain chance on a job in Hollywood he would automatically choose the latter. For this people will keep getting drawn to cities.
And finally. I don't know whether you are so much better of in the rural areas. The fact is that the rules are made in the cities and these rules are not necessarily fair. Politicians seldom favour the needs of the rural areas over those of the people in the population centers. You and I know who will see the first blackouts, the first water shortages etc. It certainly won't be Washington.
If food ever becomes a problem you might see a reappearance of the feudal agricultural taxes. Those farmers which will not comply will see their land confiscated. The people live in the cities will certainly not object against such measures.
But anyhow, I don't think it will get that far in our lifetimes.
One thing we can all do, no matter where we live now, is to shun as much of the global economy as possible. Join a food co-op or CSA, visit the farmers market and buy from small, local retailers and producers. Eat things that are in season in your area and preserve the excess. Not only will you will be training yourself and your family for the future, you will be promoting exactly the type of community that has the best chance to survive that future.
Right on the money, Pops! Great post! _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:11 pm Post subject:
Yeah, I second all of the above.
If you don't have a food co-op or CSA in your area, or even if you do, stop shopping at Wal Mart and those other big-box stores. They are what drives locally-owned stores out of business, suck money out of local economies, and de-skill local populations.
The perceived lower prices aren't real when you factor in the time and gas costs to drive to these places. For example, I can buy office supplies at Radston's in Berkeley, or I can go to Office Max or one of those places. Office Max is about 10% cheaper. But Radston's is local and on my way to fetch the mail, so I can pop in and get stuff any time I need it rather than having to plan for an hour's round trip. The big-box places are a 20 minute drive, i.e. an additional 40 minutes of my time, plus gas & wear on the vehicle. Yesterday we had to buy a battery for a co-worker's van. $60 at the local place, $50 at the big-box that's 20 minutes away (40 minutes round trip, plus waiting in lines, etc., i.e. an hour of wasted time). When someone says "go get it at BigBoxCo," my response is, "what's your time worth?"
The de-skilling of the population is a really serious factor and one that is not often given attention. Think of the sons & daughters of people with real skills, losing their skills working for minimum wage in big-box stores. This is called the devaluation of human capital.
To get an idea of what skills are worth in purely economic terms: compare the gross income of a community (combined wages & salaries paid to everyone who lives in the community) where everyone works for WalMart or equivalent, vs. the gross income of a community where people work for the wage / salary levels that apply to the jobs that use the skills they have lost after WalMart came to town. That is the quantifiable economic loss, and it is huge.
And it doesn't begin to describe the more significant loss of capabilities that would otherwise enable a community to adapt to crises and other changes. De-skilling is also a form of economic dysgenics or negative evolution; it renders a community "less fit" in Darwinian terms; more vulnerable to failure, both collectively and on the part of individuals and families.
Now one could say "but those real-skill jobs were lost because they weren't economical in that area," but that doesn't hold water: The factors which create local economic drain are often purely the deliberate manipulations of large actors (e.g. WalMart) who in turn are using government power or leveraged financial power (para-statal power in its own right, due to scale) to enforce their will upon the market.
So from a strictly libertarian perspective (i.e. old-school conservative economics), the de-skilling of local economies is not a proper market mechanism, it is an externalized cost, and a symptom of overt corruption of the market mechanism. Externalized costs in turn violate the core libertarian principle of contracts formed among consenting adults (i.e. truly free and openly-given consent based upon accurate knowledge), and are therefore illegitimate.
If you believe in freedom of enterprise and a healthy market economy, the unavoidable conclusion is to start to localize your transactions as far as possible. And in doing so, you support the evolutionary fitness of your community in coping with crisis.
GG3 - You're dead right over the issue of the de-skilling of society; it's an issue that to my mind deserves prominence across the discussion of responses to peak oil.
The small town near here used to have 3 tanneries (which was not uncommon in the days of a working rural economy), but when my local butcher recently got asked whether he could get a cowskin tawed, his son googled for a tanner and and found that the nearest listed was about 800 miles and two countries away !
On another thread I've pointed out the coming need, and the benefits, of people who want to prepare but don't have access to land, getting trained in a production skill that the community, and particularly the farms, are going to need. For instance, without a blacksmith, when Wallmart goes bust (roll on) we may lack basic tools, let alone say hinges, bolts and nails.
One small but I think significant exception should in my view be made to the rule of "buying local." This is of buying organic fair-trade produce from developing countries.
The only thing I'd agree with the International Trade Organization is that trade is the greatest engine for change on the planet. Given that its not stopping today, it's going to be further impoverishing poor producers tomorrow, apart from that small fair-trade fraction of its thruput.
So, if we in wealthy societies were to reverse the growth of fair trade's small market share by only 'buying local', we'd end what is to those producers a crucial premium over the market price that allows them to get beyond near-slave wages and start to develop towards sustainable communities.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6374 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:09 am Post subject:
You are right smiley, large cities have been around for a long time – they too were based on cheap energy, slave labor at the worst, or the worst conditions imaginable at best, think of Sinclair’s “The Jungle” .
In many large cities the traditional mix of dwelling/work/retail as been supplanted by the suburb/industrial park/shopping mall plan which demands at least mass transit if not personal transportation. I’m not saying there won’t be large towns, but I am wondering about places like LA, Dallas, etc, the huge megalopolises - those with populations of 5, 10, 20 million.
Just as a question since I don’t have the answer, how far is it from the center of an average large city to a suitable farming area considering the layers of suburbia? Of course, there will be transportation fuel available for decades to come but at some point it would seems that the cost will be so large as to make food prohibitively expensive for the least well-off. Out of the 5 million people in a large city will the un/underemployed stay there and beg for crumbs or will they move to where they can find work?
If they do move, it may be to another big city or as they pass through some small town will they find work as a baker’s helper, farm hand or seamstress? Again I’m not talking about the eminent collapse of society, I’m imagining a long-term migration back to a more local existence. Certainly there will always be long distance trade, window panes, hardware and tools for example, but not bread and meat.
“De-Skilling” – I like that gg3. It’s been happening since the industrial revolution at least and globalization and China-Mart has taken to the extreme. The flip side is specialization; just as bad, if not worse than having no skills is having a narrowly focused skill-set and very little “practical” knowledge beyond the car key, light switch and credit card; all based on cheap energy. Look at the “Personal Info” thread, few generalists there (no offense intended).
Luckily I was raised in a fairly poor family and hadn’t become as addicted to the store as some. At the point I “should” have been going to college I decided there are really only 2 ways to approach life; you could be a “buyer” or you could be a “maker”. If you decide to be a buyer you had better focus on a narrow set of skills and get a nice diploma in order to make enough money to purchase whatever good or service you required.
OTOH, if you thought you would become bored with the limited focus of making money and buying things, you should skip the diploma and start learning about the world around you, in which case you could make many of the things you wanted and perform many of the services you required yourself, do it better than China-Mart and H&R Block and satisfy your curiosity at the same time.
So for my next bit of sagacity: quit teaching your kids that as long as they have money they can buy whatever happiness they want. By the age of 3 or 4 many children already believe most good things come from the store, they already have little understanding that some scrap 2x4s can make just as interesting a world as Sega. If you teach them there is very little of a practical nature (or not so practical for that matter) they can’t do for themselves, they will be much more prepared for the future - no matter what it holds. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6374 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 12:30 pm Post subject: [Economics] Rural Retail
Another thread bump about bluring city and country - 1/11/08.
This thread is for mainly rural folks to brainstorm with me but any constructive criticism is welcome…
{edit, originally aimed at rural folks but perhaps for anywhere}
The only time that retail is mentioned around here is right after The Death of.
Now unless you are one who envisions an Overnight Armageddon to pre-Columbian conditions, there will be trade of some sort as very few if any of us can be completely self-sustaining.
As well, one of the arguments against living in a rural setting is the distances to retail.
As a rural kid in the sixties I can remember well the little stores and gas stations situated what seemed like every few miles along county highways around where we lived. Most every farm had a store within walking distance. Now these weren’t walmarts, just little stores with basic stuff like bread, eggs, milk, on/off sale beer sometimes, and maybe a gas pump.
I mentioned on another thread we recently had a visit from the grandson of the man that built our house about 100 years ago. In the course of him telling about the area he mentioned the little hamlet that was once situated maybe a quarter or half mile from here that at one time had a little store, smithy, etc. Of course being a person who grew up with V8s and 4-doors it hadn’t occurred to me that there would have been a little burg near here- it is only 5 miles or so to 4 other tiny towns still in existence; including the county seat.
Being the skeptical guy I am I dug around the ‘net and found a 1909 postal map and sure enough there it was – it even had an RFD post office.
I know, I know, I’m trying to get to the point….
I am a collector, when I go to the hardware store for a couple of pipe fittings I always buy at least twice the number I think I need – and maybe one more. I hate to be in the middle of something and need just one more, and I may need another in the future.
The upshot is I have milk crates (of an undisclosed origin) full of various parts; from plumbing to electrical to general hardware – when my granddaughter is here she plays store when I am working on a project and I have to buy everything I need from her.
In fact many times neighbors have called to come and rummaging around my stuff instead of driving to town for some little thing they need.
OK, finally, here is my question:
Would it be an option to begin (in a small way) to set one's self up as a rural retailer?
In my case I have sold things from my front yard: seedlings, produce, a couple of little chicken tractors. I am already helping neighbors to keep from driving to town occasionally. Certainly I don’t have anything left in the kitty to stock in any way but an auction purchase of a few boxes of nuts and bolts here, some insulators there, maybe a garage sale box of unopened dishes or whatever.
So even though I would not expect to build any booming business in my lifetime, would not becoming known as a local source of various things (known to the bean counters as Goodwill) perhaps be a valuable asset to pass to my children? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Last edited by Pops on Fri Jan 11, 2008 7:10 pm; edited 3 times in total
Joined: Apr 07, 2005 Posts: 225 Location: West of Chicago
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: [Economics] Rural Retail
Good thinking! I was worried about the value of money and the monetary system in general. My line of thought went the way of:
1. monthly farmer's markets. In rural locales, once a week/ once every other week the locals would get together to trade goods and services. Portable blacksmithing for making / repairing tools, a furrier, a sewing circle all day with trade going on among all. At night music and food, then back to the places they came from. Trade keeps neighbors close and eliminates the hassle of currency exchanging hands.
2. I thought about portable services in the light of a priest making the rounds on horseback. What could be portable and low fuel useage that could be traded?
Smithing
Sewing (I'll take measurements now and return in two weeks with your new clothes. It will cost you X jars of tomatoes and Y bushels of corn meal)
Milling
I just wonder how bad it would have to be for rural folks to not want to / not be able to go to Walmart...
I think you have a good idea. Hardware made locally and dry goods made locally.
Joined: Jun 21, 2006 Posts: 1205 Location: Burgundy, France
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: [Economics] Rural Retail
If you're up for the Joel Salatin style of direct-marketing of farm produce, you could always let it be known that you have DIY stuff available as well.
Then if somebody comes for the DIY stuff, they will probably buy some produce as well (and vice versa). However, the driver for the farm produce would be good quality at a reasonable price. I'm not sure if the DIY element could fit in with that. _________________ All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6374 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 1:29 pm Post subject: Re: [Economics] Rural Retail
canis_lupus wrote:
Portable blacksmithing for making / repairing tools, a furrier, a sewing circle all day with trade going on among all. ...What could be portable and low fuel useage that could be traded?
Smithing
Sewing
Milling
As regards smiths, weavers, millers, etc; all are destination businesses and not itinerants because of their various equipment requirements - the customer comes to you.
canis_lupus wrote:
I just wonder how bad it would have to be for rural folks to not want to / not be able to go to Walmart...
Good point regarding time frames - I’m thinking of this as a long process for those thinking long-term, say 25 years from now, as well as keeping up front costs and risks low.
OTOH, as I pointed out some folks buy from me now...
canis_lupus wrote:
Hardware made locally and dry goods made locally.
Again, I am not thinking so much about makers but sellers in this case. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6374 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 1:42 pm Post subject:
vision-master wrote:
Always low prices...
Well, today it is a 40 mile round trip to walmart from my location and most folks that need a $2 item right now and know I may have it might be happy to save the hour and $3-$12 in gas to get it from the neighbor.
As I said, some do it now occasionally… _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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