Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1149 Location: Last outpost of Civilisation
Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
DesertBear2 wrote:
JPL wrote:
Post-medieval Europe after the first Black Death, for example. When 50% of the population died and a lot of the farmland went back to scrub-land. Roads were left un-made and whole villages & towns were abandoned.
It was 100+ years before the European economy recovered to the point where people 'needed' resources. Wars weren't possible, during the post-medieval 'transition stage', there just wasn't the manpower to do it...JPL
My knowledge of 14th Century is not the best but it seems that there was quite a bit of warfare after the black plague events.
Black Plague 1348-50
Hundred Years War 1337-1453
"The 14th century gives us back two contradictory images: on the one hand a glittering time of crusades and chivalry and exquisitely illuminated Books of Hours; on the other, a time of ferocity and and spiritual agony- a world plunged into chaos. These are the years when the black death struck in the great plague of 1348 -50, killing more than a third of the entire population between India and Iceland, and returned four times during the rest of the century...when freebooting companies of brigands terorized Europe with impunity ...when a "hundred years' war" seemed to have no beginning and no end, and defying the belligerents own efforts to end it, acquired a life of it's own, "an epic of brutality and bravery checered by disgrace". -- Barbara Tuchman, A Distant Mirror
Hi DesertBear,
Good piece of research. The 'hundred years' war was not a war in the sort of terms that we can understand today - it was, basically, a never-ending period of anarchy and chaos.
The 21'st century 'might' end up being similar to the 14'th - I accept that. But it doesn't have to be. I don't see where it's 'Written' (yet???).
JPL _________________ The three most beautiful things in the world -
a full-rigged ship, a woman with child and a full moon.
Celtic Proverb
Last edited by JPL on Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 6:15 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
Resource wars will be constrained by oil and mobility. The governments will have to provide fuel for their own citizens and will be unable to project their forces far beyond their border. The real oil grab will occur through oil contracts and commerce.
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 8:45 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
Newsseeker wrote:
Resource wars will be constrained by oil and mobility. The governments will have to provide fuel for their own citizens and will be unable to project their forces far beyond their border. The real oil grab will occur through oil contracts and commerce.
Just my opinion.
Oh?
Then it might be a good strategy to pre-emptively invade oil rich countries and establish military bases to be able to project that power, eh?
Seems the only thing constraining the current resource war is public opinion and resistance of the occupied country. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2007 10:22 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
Seems the only thing constraining the current resource war is public opinion and resistance of the occupied country
...that reminds me of the fascinating script used at the end of the 1975 movie, “Three Days of the Condor.”
Turner is Robert Redford’s character, Higgins is a CIA station chief:
[quote]Turner: Do we have plans to invade the Middle East?
Higgins: Are you crazy?
Turner: Am I?
Higgins: Look, Turner…
Turner: Do we have plans?
Higgins: No. Absolutely not. We have games. That’s all. We play games. What if? How many men? What would it take? Is there a cheaper way to destabilize a regime? That’s what we’re paid to do. . . . Fact is, there was nothing wrong with the plan. Oh, the plan was alright, the plan would’ve worked.
Turner: Boy, what is it with you people? You think not getting caught in a lie is the same thing as telling the truth?
Higgins: No. It’s simple economics. Today it’s oil, right? In ten or fifteen years, food. Plutonium. And maybe even sooner. Now, what do you think the people are gonna want us to do then?
Turner: Ask them.
Higgins: Not now, then! Ask ‘em when they’re running out. Ask ‘em when there’s no heat in their homes and they’re cold. Ask ‘em when their engines stop. Ask ‘em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won’t want us to ask ‘em. They’ll just want us to get it for ‘em![quote]
Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 3:31 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
Not now, then! Ask ‘em when they’re running out. Ask ‘em when there’s no heat in their homes and they’re cold. Ask ‘em when their engines stop. Ask ‘em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won’t want us to ask ‘em. They’ll just want us to get it for ‘em!
Very true, excellent quote. I'll be watching that one. _________________ "One minute I held the key, next the walls were closed on me, and I discovered that my castle stands upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand."
Posted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:32 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
Battle_Scarred_Galactico wrote:
Not now, then! Ask ‘em when they’re running out. Ask ‘em when there’s no heat in their homes and they’re cold. Ask ‘em when their engines stop. Ask ‘em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won’t want us to ask ‘em. They’ll just want us to get it for ‘em!
Very true, excellent quote. I'll be watching that one.
You'd be doing yourself a favor. It really is a good film.
Posted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:39 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
Newsseeker wrote:
Resource wars will be constrained by oil and mobility. The governments will have to provide fuel for their own citizens and will be unable to project their forces far beyond their border.
Just my opinion.
Governments can do both. It's called 'rationing.'
As it stands, there are few armies that are capable of projecting their forces far beyond their borders. That's due to the fact that they are defensive only and not intended to conduct offensive operations, or they're incompetent, they lack the manpower and equipment, or they lack experience/practical application of logistics to move any significant distance beyond their own borders.
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
Petrodollar,
My thanks also. It's one of favorite movies and I hadn't thought about how it does fit well into the thread.
And that brings us back to supplying the military with fuel. I've never felt the Strat. Pet. Reserve was established for civilian use. The Dept. of Defense is the single largest user of oil in the world. I saw a number recently that I can't varify but it estimates that 60% of the daily cost of the Iraq conflict is fuel. Seems high but MPG's for armored vehicles make Suburbanes look good.
If we do have a serious supply disruption and the DOD holds back the SPR for military use, the angry villagers may replace Big Oil with a new monster to hunt down.
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: Re: GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production
-- --In World War II, the United States consumed about a gallon of fuel per soldier per day, according to the report. In the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War, about 4 gallons of fuel per soldier was consumed per day. In 2006, the US operations in Iraq and Afghanistan burned about 16 gallons of fuel per soldier on average per day, almost twice as much as the year before.
I can't remember where I got this, GAO I think, but its my belief the increase is due to airpower. I must also say that the army is doing everything it can to power down and become fuel efficient. With a non volunteer army, one should consider the potential for the army to only care for itself. As opposed to caring for the 'people', whom it no longer represents. Kinda like what BigTex says about cops, you don't want to get on their bad side, and force them to teach you a lesson. _________________ HOLDING THE CENTER
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