How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2349 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 9:44 am Post subject: Aviation Fuel price record
We are approaching another record for aviation fuels. I have to find the historical stuff yet but as I recall fuel prices for general aviation are very close to records from last year.
Non jet fuel has gone up around 35-40 cents in the last 4 months or so and as of the last week Its up over 10 cents. I own a small aircraft and have a good website to track the local price of fuel. I look at this probably every week or so as I fill up my Cessna 150 about once a month, sometimes twice.
I'd like the mods to sticky this and I'll update it every week If thats ok. Just more evidence things are not so rosy.
Use this link for tracking non jet fuel, average cost is the one to watch I think, although the ranges will also tell a tale.
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Aviation Fuel price record
Thanks for this, airlinepilot. I second your request to make this sticky.
I have been wondering since this last run up: How are the airlines staying in business? I had spoken to some industry experts a couple years ago about this on a call-in radio show (sorry, I can't remember their names now, but they seemed pretty legit), and they claimed that $60/bbl oil would pretty much sink the whole airline industry.
I know there's no taxes on airplane fuel and they get various other kinds of government assistance, but shouldn't we still be seeing more companies going under at these prices?
And what happens when the industry is no longer commercially viable? Government take over?
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4059 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: Aviation Fuel price record
Interestingly, the stock valuations of the major airlines hasn't been adversely affected by by this recent run-up in aviation fuel. In fact, I've long expected an increse in passenger ticket prices but this hasn't happened, other than token and spot increases. Meanwhile, passenger loads are at 85+% for most.
.... that the military uses about 10% of the US aviation fuel. When a reduction in fuel availability occurs, the military's aviation fuel usage will not drop (in fact, will likel'y continue increasing) meaning, of course, that civil aviation will eat the entire reduction in the availability of aviation fuels. This will seriously affect the airlines financially causing passenger ticket prices to increase dramatically. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5353 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:22 pm Post subject: Re: Aviation Fuel price record
Can't say that I've been following jet fuel closely, but it seems that the government has been bidding more agressively for fuel.
There are also other reports that have the US armed forces are about to buy twice as much jet fuel from Persian Gulf suppliers in 2007 as compared to 2006 [I posted that before but can't find right now].
Quote:
3/26/07 Oil Daily
Energy Intelligence Group
March 26, 2007
Volume 57; Issue 58
Shell wins jet fuel contract.(Shell Oil Products gets contract from United States Defense Logistics Agency)(Brief article)
Shell Oil Products, a unit of Shell Oil Company, is being awarded two US Defense Logistics Agency contracts totaling up to $1.2 billion for aviation turbine fuel, the Pentagon said Thursday.
Work under the contracts is to wrap up on Apr. 30, 2008, the Defense Department said in its daily contract summary.
Separately, it said San Antonio-based Valero Marketing and Supply is being awarded a deal valued at up to $499.4 million for fuel, and Shell Chemical Yabucoa, based in Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, has won a contract valued at up to $143 million for naval distillate fuel.
[no link, subscription service] _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
According to some things I have seen just commercial airline traffic by itself helps generate a significant portion of our economy in the US. Total civilian and commercial aviation makes up something in the neighborhood of 8-10% of the regular economy, not including the military.
Without it I would think we would have significant problems maintaining current economic activity.
Commercial aviation is going to be significantly impacted if it hasn't been already by high energy costs so I thought it would be interesting to watch these prices also.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3706 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 6:49 pm Post subject: Re: Aviation Fuel price record
Not to mention the fact that Airline fuel is more prone to supply disruptions. I remember last year when some Airports in Florida I think were running very low on fuel. We could very well see supply disruptions in airline fuel supply long before major gasoline shortages occur.
In the end, neither Iran nor Iraq would win a clear victory, but the suffering was enormous on both sides. Conservative estimates place the death doll at 367,000-262,000 Iranians and 105,000 Iraqis. An estimated 700,000 were injured or wounded on both sides, bringing the total casualty figure to over one million. 43
Joined: Dec 11, 2005 Posts: 430 Location: albuquerque
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 7:14 pm Post subject: Re: Aviation Fuel price record
Quote:
According to some things I have seen just commercial airline traffic by itself helps generate a significant portion of our economy in the US. Total civilian and commercial aviation makes up something in the neighborhood of 8-10% of the regular economy, not including the military.
Without it I would think we would have significant problems maintaining current economic activity.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2349 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:05 am Post subject: Re: Aviation Fuel price record
Its been a lifelong dream of mine to own my own aircraft. I have been renting and that is getting more expensive.
I took the plunge last fall and bought myself a Cessna 150. I own it outright and did it now because I fear in 5 years or so I might not get to enjoy it at all. So..living life now while I can.
It burns about 4.5 gallons per hour and I fly less than 10 hours a month. Purely joyrides and 100$ hamburgers. My kids enjoy going also so its great for that.
I am doing some things differently than I had planned like travel and things on my life "to do" list. Trying to get them all done in the next few years will be hard. This is one of those.
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