Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 850 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:04 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Haha--taking the message of declining empire to Rome? Good on you. Great comments and advice from all directions. It may be Rome, but it will be a voluntarily attending college crowd. So not so bad.
I'll comment on the emotional aspect. I used to teach nursing students statistics, and I can't think of a more reluctant set of attendees. Nurses as a whole tend to have great emotional intelligence, but are not particularly fond of math. There was no way they were going to hear anything I said until we addressed the fear and anxiety about taking the course. I learned very quickly that there is NO point in discussing p values when the audience is anxious!
So I spent the 30 minutes discussing how they felt about it, and how those feelings might change with mastery. Then I readdressed the topic with spotchecks throughout the course. Once people can verbalize those scary feelings, they can start to think rationally about the topic. So maybe introduce the movie with the comment that it may provoke some strong emotions, and that that is normal, and that there will be discussion afterwards that addresses the feelings, or whatever you have planned. I know there's not enough time to do proper debriefing, especially with a crowd, but there should be some sort of critical stress debriefing incident available after this film. Albente is right. It's a sudden, traumatic view of huge losses and early mortality.
Course, this board is littered with engineers and the feelings piece may not be your cuppa' tea. One reason why the message is denied so furiously is the quantitative, analytical, non-emotional presentation. It denies the very strong and threatening feelings. Wasn't it Schopenhauer who said, "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."
Instilling hope is critical, too. When you tell a patient about his or her cancer, you never commit a death sentence. It's "here's what you have, and we can work through this and hopefully come out of it OK. Here's what we're going to do for the next x months, and then we'll reevaluate." Even if you have major doubts, having a plan gives people immediate hope. Despair is an ugly place that no one should live in.
Portland's peak oil plan is very nicely thought out. Granted, Houston's got a ways to go to catch up with Portland.
I've tried to balance in giving peak oil information to my 20-year old daughter at UM. I try for realistic yet hopeful, but sometimes the doomer comes seeping out. It's important for her to hear it all, but not to the point that she says, "Well, why bother getting that degree in marine biology???" She said that once, and I backed off on the realistic part and aimed for more hopeful.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2520 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
This is more request than advice, but it would be interesting if you could use this opportunity to learn from your audience. Take some polls, have some interactive excercises. I'm interested in how people prioritize lifestyle choices, but there are many other interesting things to explore.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 384 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:48 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
dinopello wrote:
This is more request than advice, but it would be interesting if you could use this opportunity to learn from your audience. Take some polls, have some interactive excercises. I'm interested in how people prioritize lifestyle choices, but there are many other interesting things to explore.
That might be an interesting rhetorical exercise. Start with
how many of you would give up your family vacation or Spring Break roadtrip?
how many of you would give lump all your errands together or run them with friends?
how many of you would give up your car?
how many of you would turn off your AC at home?
or similar progression all the way down to...
how many of you would give up your insulin?
Disclaimer: Only haul that last one out if you think you need a shocker. If they're already reeling, that one might push them a bit too far! _________________ TANSTAAFL
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2520 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:12 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Yea, it could get as ugly as you want with the choices poll. Its kind of like Albert Bartlett's talk with the two-sided list and asking what you choose from the left hand side (or is it the right hand side?) - anyway - its the 'bad' side.
All after making the case that the population will be reduced - that is not your choice, but how could be if you are willing to choose.
Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 4:49 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
1. Popullation Growth rule of 72
2. Economic Growth rule of 72
3. Reserves including tar sands & shales Vs Extraction rates.
4. EROEI & Jevons paradox
5. Countries already past peak. e.g. USA, Russia, UK, Norway, Mexico, Indonesia, Australia etc etc...
6. Fungible nature of oil may see pressure on foodstocks i.e. corn ethanol.
7. Fungible nature of oil will put pressure on nat gas and coal stocks via CTL
8. Global energy problem. Solution can't come from USA alone.
9. THE MOST CRUCIAL. Offer solutions, manhattan style...., solar..., nuclear..., powerdown..., conservation...., People love a happy ending. Tag you're it. LOL _________________ "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1195 Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 6:31 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
RonMN wrote:
Don't do it Aaron!
People have to come to PO willingly...you're just setting yourself up for a letdown.
I personally, would say "thank, but no thanks".
No, I disagree. There may be someone there that needs to hear it the way Aaron will present it to 'get' it. Definately encourage people to do their own research before writing it off and maybe offer some of the more informative and credible sources. _________________ Kind regards, Katkinkate
"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops,
but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
Masanobu Fukuoka
Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 9:33 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
katkinkate wrote:
RonMN wrote:
Don't do it Aaron!
People have to come to PO willingly...you're just setting yourself up for a letdown.
I personally, would say "thank, but no thanks".
No, I disagree. There may be someone there that needs to hear it the way Aaron will present it to 'get' it. Definately encourage people to do their own research before writing it off and maybe offer some of the more informative and credible sources.
I would agree in disagreeing.
In a group setting, you don't get to interact with every member of the audience, and that kind of give-and-take interaction is necessary for someone to "get it". On an individual level, there are ways to get around fears, doubts, group think, and other preprogrammed responses. As a presenter to a group, the number of people who "get it" will almost always be a subset of the whole.
Some people will "get it". Most people probably won't, but you can't worry about them. Reach the people you can, and accept that it won't be everyone.
In order to get people thinking about these issues past your presentation, put in some suggestions like, "when you go home tonight, look around your room to see all the things that were made directly with oil: (list plastic things common to a dorm room)." Or "the next time you brush and floss your teeth: plastic bristles and fibers", "the next time you get in a car", "the next time you have sex (wait for shouts to die down): Condoms and KY jelly are made with petroleum".
Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 9:44 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
I plan to use the lion's share of my time on Q&A _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2520 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 10:30 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
SevenTen wrote:
In order to get people thinking about these issues past your presentation, put in some suggestions like, "when you go home tonight, look around your room to see all the things that were made directly with oil: (list plastic things common to a dorm room)." Or "the next time you brush and floss your teeth: plastic bristles and fibers", "the next time you get in a car", "the next time you have sex (wait for shouts to die down): Condoms and KY jelly are made with petroleum".
I think it's the Petroleum Institute that makes a great video on all the wonderful things made of oil. It's called "Oil for Aladdin's Lamp". It can be viewed here
It points out materials, food, lubrications and fuels, all in the context of how great it is that we make all these things out of oil. If your audience believe that oil is finite, then after seeing this it should be easy to connect the dots as to why it is a problem to be so dependent on this stuff.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5095 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Aaron, will we be able to (digitally) view or listen to your Q&A afterward? That would be cool... _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 41 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 11:35 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Aaron,
I'm actually an undergrad at Rice University right now and I saw the planning for this event on some website (I forget which one for the moment.) Let me know if you need any help with anything. I've already tried to convert a few here, but honestly most people don't want to hear it. So good luck. I'm inclined to say don't waste your time, because like most college students, it's going to quickly become something they forget about once they go drinking. I'm in my third year right now studying bioengineering as an undergrad and would say that I'm fairly well versed in PO. I wouldn't mind helping, nudge nudge.
Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Uninspired123 wrote:
Aaron,
I'm actually an undergrad at Rice University right now and I saw the planning for this event on some website (I forget which one for the moment.) Let me know if you need any help with anything. I've already tried to convert a few here, but honestly most people don't want to hear it. So good luck. I'm inclined to say don't waste your time, because like most college students, it's going to quickly become something they forget about once they go drinking. I'm in my third year right now studying bioengineering as an undergrad and would say that I'm fairly well versed in PO. I wouldn't mind helping, nudge nudge.
Let me know.
After having had the same job for over 7 years, I have been moving around in the business world recently. People flat out don't want to hear about reduced energy availibility.
I think people know this is serious and yet somehow can't bring themselves around to believe it's happeining right now in their lifetimes. _________________ "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Shannymara wrote:
Aaron, will we be able to (digitally) view or listen to your Q&A afterward? That would be cool...
I'm not sure if the facility will have an up-link for Internet access, but if so I'll try & get somebody to broadcast it on PeakSpeak. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:09 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Uninspired123 wrote:
Aaron,
I'm actually an undergrad at Rice University right now and I saw the planning for this event on some website (I forget which one for the moment.) Let me know if you need any help with anything. I've already tried to convert a few here, but honestly most people don't want to hear it. So good luck. I'm inclined to say don't waste your time, because like most college students, it's going to quickly become something they forget about once they go drinking. I'm in my third year right now studying bioengineering as an undergrad and would say that I'm fairly well versed in PO. I wouldn't mind helping, nudge nudge.
Let me know.
The event itself may need some volunteers... I'm not sure.
Send me an email & I'll forward to the event organizer.
I'll have a draft of my presentation ready for editing soon, so maybe some of you can join me on PeakSpeak (tonight?) to suggest & revise. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
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