Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2004 5:49 pm Post subject: closing refineries in US
Can somebody offer me an explanation please.
I have heard that Shell is planning/has to close a profitable and efficient refinery in California.
Does not this play into the hands of the "peak-oil is a myth" camp as they say that Shell is just manipulating the economy/market that then "creates" the illusion of peak oil and associated shortages.
Is there a rational reason for Shells proposal?
Excerpt from your referenced article:
"We concluded there is simple not enough crude supply to ensure the viability of the refinery in the long term," Farid said
Doesn't this prove peak oil is "accepted" by the oil majors?
Joined: Nov 21, 2004 Posts: 579 Location: ~170ft/lbs@0rpm (on my bike)
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2004 6:39 pm Post subject:
I don't know enough of our oil infrastructure to give a concrete reply, but consider that this could be endemic of our own declining oil supply, or depending on how much we refine from our overseas imports, an indication that our world supply is in fact starting to slide downward.
Or maybe the geographical location of the refinery makes it very inefficient to run?
ChevronTexaco is the largest producer in the Kern River field, using steam injection wells to extract 100,000 barrels day. Still, the field's production is declining, according to state statistics, from 48.7 million barrels in 1998 to an estimated 38.8 million barrels in 2002.
Seems pretty obvious to me. I'd say that, given a +20% decline in locally available resource in a four year period, bagging it is a fiscally sound strategy for any company seeking to remain profitable (at least as long as it can)...
Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: Sonoma County, Northern California
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2004 6:45 pm Post subject: eports: 2 suitors for Shell refinery
Quote:
Friday October 29th, 2004
Persistent rumors that the Shell Bakersfield Refinery on Rosedale Highway could soon sell bubbled to the surface again on Friday.
The Oil Price Information Service reported two buyers have emerged as serious bidders for the plant.
OPIS said it could eliminate several candidates, including Valero and most majors. One bidder is a niche refiner, although OPIS reported it could not confirm the company's identity.
"The other interest is reportedly coming from a large multi-billion dollar East Coast private equity fund," the OPIS report said. "This buyer is reputed to be a dark-horse candidate and there are still concerns that Shell will still stick to terms that make it difficult for anyone to buy the plant."
Shell has been criticized for not including a storage terminal adjacent to the refinery and pipelines that serve the refinery in the sale.
Shell was to close October 31 because they could not meet EPA air pollution requirements for 2005, but they have apparently been givin permission to operate through the spring of 2005.
The refinery supplies 2% of the gas, and 6% of the diesel fuel in California. Closure would jack up retail prices. The EPA mandate for very low sulfur diesel in 2006 may have been an issue because of costly upgrading requirements, but I have not seen it discussed.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2004 8:13 pm Post subject:
Also take into account that the Mideast has been aggressively pursuing their own refining capabilities. Though they continue to sell crude, they realized that the didn't need to give up on value added refining. So over time we've seen the crude supplies in the US decline, then we imported crude and passed through our refineries, and now the oil producers have gotten smart and realized that they can use crude oil money to build refineries to produce gas, diesel, petrochemical feedstocks, and other items.
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