How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Jun 20, 2004 Posts: 250 Location: California
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:16 am Post subject: Baseline depletion numbers
Per Aaron's request, a sticky post with my baseline scenario. Other scenarios gratefully accepted. What we're looking for are models showing production over time, with the production subtracted from reserves so that we can look at the process of the gas tank running dry.
My model still needs some tuning, in particular it behaves badly for the next few years.
The next step, if I can ever get the data, is to add in some data re. alternatives, the main one being coal-to-liquids production, which I'm now convinced is going to start ramping up as the decline sets in.
The step after that is to plug in the consumption, and try to see what policy changes are going to be made (or forced) to deal with the deline without a general collapse.
quick question, where do you think that production in saudi arabia is coming from? that is a lot they have to pump. just scratching my head over it, but your data, on first look looks a lot like the us government models. so i wonder why there is a discrepancy bteween these models, like aspo vs. regulatory data. do you know? i have been puzzled for a while about this. can you help me, as a matter of fact, all of us understand this. _________________ It just gets better every day....
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2004 2:42 pm Post subject:
Why does peak Heavy oil happen so quickly in this model? , even the pessimistic ASPO dont even have heavy oil peaking in 2050! _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3329 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri May 06, 2005 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Baseline depletion numbers
DoctorDoom wrote:
Per Aaron's request, a sticky post with my baseline scenario. Other scenarios gratefully accepted. What we're looking for are models showing production over time, with the production subtracted from reserves so that we can look at the process of the gas tank running dry.
My model still needs some tuning, in particular it behaves badly for the next few years.
The next step, if I can ever get the data, is to add in some data re. alternatives, the main one being coal-to-liquids production, which I'm now convinced is going to start ramping up as the decline sets in.
The step after that is to plug in the consumption, and try to see what policy changes are going to be made (or forced) to deal with the deline without a general collapse.
Do oyu have any fresh numbers to plug in next to these projections to test their accuracy? _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Question: the production numbers seems to be low, are we considering only conventional oil here? _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
you have 75.57 million barrels per day and there are 365 days per year.
that would be 27.58 Gigabarrels subtracted from 1127.9
that would be 1100 not 1108.
I think your numbers are off for some reason, if I am wrong please go through the first iteration step by step.
thanks.
we have passed supply/demand peak regardless of how much
they increase production.
supply demand peak is what sets the prices, and is what will start a lot of problems, we cannot produce as much as we need already. forget about 2025.. _________________ ___________________________
WHEN THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND...GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Using evil to further good makes one evil
Doubt everything but the TRUTH
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