Posted: Sat Apr 15, 2006 10:53 am Post subject: Re: Restructuring the Global Economy
Looks like the thread was dying, so since I am being boring today, watching Abenteurer Leben on Kabel Einz, I thought I might throw some fresh fuel on the fire.
A couple of things, the global economy has been restructuring and massively so in the past three decades since the absolute pinnacle of American prosperity, relative to everyone else, in 1973. So lesson number one, just because you're GM and sitting on top of the world, doesn't mean you're going to stay there unless you keep innovating and keep making products that consumers want to buy at a profit.
In the meantime we had Das Wirtschaftwuender up until the fall of the Berlin Wall and some pretty generous, but not well thought out choices that German politicians made and German workers are still paying for today. Lesson number two. A closed economy which is homogenous can be a blessing. But if you have a group of outsiders who have not contributed to the accumulation of wealth knocking on you door to share it, you have a problem (i.e. the grasshopper and the ants). It does not matter why or who is to blame?
We have had the rise of the Asian Tigers, following Japan, and then Taiwans, and then South Korea's rise to prosperity from very humble beginnings. Mostly through trade. China is basing their own economic miracle not on the failed policies of socialism, but on the successes of their neighbors. So lesson number three. If it doesn't work, throw it away. Learn from your neighbors. It certainly is not helpful to live in the past or to assert that 'the American way of life is not negotiable'. Chinese leaders lost a lot of face to give into a market based economy versus a centrally planned economy, but they are better off for it.
I had some other ideas, but my wife is calling me to dinner. Rule number four, don't piss the one off who is cooking your dinner if you want to continue to have her cook while you play! Hmm, he who has the gold, calls the tune? ; - )
Ah, back to Abenteuer Leben. Literally translated it means Adventure Living, but it is a program about people with unusual jobs. This seems to be very popular in Germany as there are several shows that feature this like Galileo. In any case, seems to me that it is beyond the state's control to think up 1000's (x10) of different professions and how to integrate them together, whereas the free market seems to accomplish this with ease via trade.
What integrates us brings us together. So the global economy is restructuring all the time. Also to less energy and higher costs when that comes to pass. Who are you going to trust to do a better job? Politicians or beaurocrats? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 853 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Fri May 26, 2006 2:45 am Post subject: Re: Restructuring the Global Economy
The Pimco link is a failure now. I get the picture, though.
Isn't it astonishing the parallels you can draw to what Bush is doing now and what Hitler did in the thirties? Aside from the camps (which some on the net say are coming, though not for death) both regimes staked all very early on capturing the oil high ground. Hitler wanted the oil in Baku. Bush wants to control the Middle-East. Hitler almost succeeded but Germany (the original synthetic gas from coal story) simply didn't have the resources. Bush thinks he can succeed. America will most probably find that it too doesn't have the resources.
Yes, I too believe that 2006 is the year. I believe that we have reached peak oil now! Oil isn't a hundred dollars a barrel yet, that only takes a broader realization, however. Basically the world can't get any more oil out of the ground per day no matter what it tries. As fast as they can update a big field for more production another smaller field somewhere else in the world is drying up. So, Bush wants to seize the big reserves.
The strategic pullout from Iraq and the big recession are coming. Both are con jobs. The first is to set up a reinvasion and the latter is to curtail demand until the spigot can be invested in and the daily supply affected. To do that the right people, the Sunnis, have to be in charge in Iraq.
What Bush hasn't counted on, and neither did Hitler, is losing.
With everything on the line, and the alternatives left untried past their breaking points, the reinvasion could fail. If it does you had better have already been in gold. And it wouldn't hurt to know a little bit about Central American geography as well.
Joined: Dec 25, 2004 Posts: 446 Location: Salem, MA
Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 9:20 am Post subject:
MonteQuest wrote:
Americans will have to take a major reduction in the standard of living, stop spending and start saving or lose it all. We will all live to witness the play-out of this global chess game, I am afraid. And it won't be easy to watch.
global state-capitalism coming home to roost. international redistribution of wealth via the world bank and IMF. now is the time for americans to buy gold and become as self-reliant as possible... our currency is in the process of being debauched. _________________ UNLESS
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 7:49 pm Post subject: Re: Restructuring the Global Economy
The "Global Economy" idea was a farce to begin with. It's simply something that allowed us to finance the hollowing out of our cities and towns and transform into a nation filled with tv addicts, diabetics, lawyers, insurance salesmen, disease, obesity, and a prevading vacousness.
I'm not saying things were perfect before World War II. But Globalism has infinitely hurt our ability to be the best we could be.
It is interesting that Globalism is used as a way for Asian countries to "advance" themselves. Our concept of Progress is perhaps overly simple and linear. The book Farmers of Forty Centuries was written nearly 100 years ago by an American Scientist. He examined how agriculture in Asia, designed for sustainability and optimum efficiency, allowed much of East Asia to attain and sustain populations enormously greater than anything the West had ever seen. This puts a monkey wrench into how our formulae for technology is supposed to help a society advance, cuz in some ways East Asia was at a stage of development thousands of years ahead of Western Society.
So, in that sense, we are still catching up with East Asia. As our population density and aggregate population increases, we will first become more socialistic like Europe. Then become more paternalistic, like Asia. Only the Paternal bodies will be banks and corporations, and regional Wal-Mart managers, rather than Royals, Nobles, and Warlords.
Joined: Oct 24, 2006 Posts: 113 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:26 pm Post subject: Re: Restructuring the Global Economy
I wonder if there is another location where the original linked report could be found? Since I did not read it before - I don't know what I would be searching for - does anyone else remember the headline/author etc to do a search? That would be very much appreciated. Reading snippets is might interesting - but it would be even better to have the whole story!
Correspondents Report - Sunday, 11 February , 2007
China's President, Hu Jintao, has just wrapped up his tour of Africa, a continent of key strategic value to the emerging super-power.
President Hu has secured long-term concessions in oil and mining rights in return for interest free loans and aid with "no strings attached".
But the Chinese leader rejected criticism that Beijing is ignoring human rights abuses, while milking the world's poorest region through unequal trade.
In a moment we'll hear China's perspective, with the help of our China Correspondent, Stephen McDonell, but first, from Johannesburg, here's our Africa Correspondent, Andrew Geoghegan.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Chinese President Hu Jintao's African odyssey has taken him to eight countries.
In Sudan, he was confronted by the odd sight of Chinese dancers performing at an oil refinery.
(Sound of Chinese dancers performing, clapping)
The Chinese President has been greeted effusively at every stop, and it's not surprising. He's come bearing gifts, in the form of aid and loans.
It began with an interest free loan to the Sudanese leader so he could build a presidential palace.
(Omar al-Bashir speaking)
"Our relationship is truly a relationship of friendship," said President Omar al-Bashir, "with no strings attached or pressures or political agenda."
It's this "no strings attached" policy that has prompted accusations from the West that China is ignoring corruption and human rights abuses in countries such as Sudan and Zimbabwe.
But President Hu has defended his country's stance, while making a veiled reference to Western interventionist policies.
HU JINTAO (translated): China upholds the principles and purposes of the UN Charter, and China does not interfere into other countries' internal affairs, and China does not impose its own ideology, political system or mode of development to any other country.
FRANCIS KORNEGAY: Well, China should exert its influence.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Francis Kornegay is a China analyst at the Centre for Policy Studies in Johannesburg.
FRANCIS KORNEGAY: Now, whether one wants to call it pressure or what-have-you, particularly given China's refrain about non-interference, the fact of the matter is that China has a lot of influence with Sudan, and China increasingly has to balance its interest in Sudan with its interest in Africa as a whole.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Most African countries want to see Sudan end atrocities in its Darfur region, where 200,000 people have died.
However, China has chosen to ignore sanctions imposed on Sudan. It wants to guarantee it has abundant natural resources to feed its economy, and so far Chinese largesse has secured long-term concessions in oil and mining rights.
While China's African partners may be immediate winners, Francis Kornegay's not so sure about the longer term.
FRANCIS KORNEGAY: Of course the problem, though, is that Africa's divided into many sovereign states, 53 African countries and one China. And that sort of makes for an inherently unequal relationship irrespective of any notions of equality.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: However, Thabo Mbeki's South Africa, Beijing's biggest trade partner on the continent, is committed to a close relationship with China.
THABO MBEKI: This whole matter of the renewal of the African continent is very critical in terms of the work that we do. And again, the effect of that strategic partnership with China enables us to be able to act quite closely with regard to addressing an important issue, as I was saying, the renewal of the African continent.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Hu Jintao speaks of equality.
HU JINTAO (translated): As I said earlier, in my opening remarks, the cooperation between China and Africa is based on equality, mutual trust, mutual benefit and win-win outcomes.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: But China is beginning to generate resentment in Africa.
Its growing economic clout on the continent is undermining local industry, as cheap Chinese goods flood the market.
Patrick Craven from the Congress of South African Trade Unions.
PATRICK CRAVEN: Yes, that's not just a fear. It's a fact. That, particularly in clothing and textiles, Chinese imports have already led to the loss of, we estimate, 65,000 jobs. But that is what we fear, that it may spread to other sectors.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Trade unions also complain that China is exploiting local workers, as well as importing its own labour, in regions that have chronic unemployment.
Patrick Craven.
PATRICK CRAVEN: One of our fears is that Chinese companies, when they invest here, will not be good employers, just as we believe they are not in China itself, where workers are paid very, very low wages.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: While China is creating new economic opportunities in Africa, there are concerns, not least among Western countries, that it's embarked on a new wave of colonialism.
I am not very neutral on this issue for what it is worth. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 7:17 am Post subject: Re: Restructuring the Global Economy
Bas wrote:
MrBill wrote:
I am not very neutral on this issue for what it is worth.
what's your viewpoint then exactly?
Well, basically I have to alternatively laugh and cry at the irony of geo-politics where different countries play by different rules, which is why the whole notion of free trade is kind of a joke. Without fair trade, free trade makes little sense.
So if America, were for example, giving out soft-loans (as they may have done in the past) then certainly the NGOs and the left would be accusing the USA of coddling despots and propping up tin-pot dictators. I have certainly seen those arguments advanced before on peak oil dot com and other websites.
While at the same time others would applaud China for its bold state-sponsored capitalism as evidenced by its external surpluses and rapid growth. And predict that China Inc. will one day own the USA. I have certainly read those arguments on peak oil dot com often as well.
I see a restructuring of the global economy alright. China is out buying influence and power in Africa and Latin America to secure access to base metals, energy and commodities, while protecting some pretty nasty characters like N. Korea and Sudan from UN economic sanctions or even condemnation of their human rights records.
I think seen against the backdrop of post peak oil depletion and the risk of resource wars this is geo-political positioning by China. I am not saying it is right or wrong, but I see it for what it is.
By the way, I just posted in Trader's Corner an interesting article on Russia's energy policy with regards to oil & gas as well as coal, electricity and nuclear all balled up in one mega corp called Gazprom, which just as easily could be called Russia Energy Inc.! Pretty interesting stuff. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3780 Location: over here
Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 7:36 am Post subject: Re: Restructuring the Global Economy
Sounds like you don't know who's side you are on in these matters... Not that I would know myself. On the one hand China is providing much needed FDI for Africa, on the other hand they are providing loans that may choke African nations in the future (like soft loans from the west have done in the past).
Yet, if China is breaking the UN embargo against Sudan, it should be made into a big deal. The Chinese saying they respect the charter of the UN yet undermining its sanctions makes them look like hypocrites.
However, Europeans and after WWII also America have toyed with those poor nations for so long that we look like hypocrites ourselves complaining about China starting to do the same thing. Yet, to some extend (with regard to the loans) China IS undermining the new policy of the west of not providing soft loans anymore and relieving some of the poorest nations of their debt.
In the end it all doesn't matter much anyway though with impending hyperinflation/chaos due to PO... _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:01 am Post subject: Re: Restructuring the Global Economy
Exactly, it is hard to say which IS the right side to be on? However, I do not see neo-colonial or quasi-colonial power as being anymore right than the original version. And it seems to me that Chinese generated corruption and bribe taking in these countries is no better than any other source. They all undermine confidence in the official government leading to more corruption.
But you have to marvel at the effort on one side of the world to eliminate these practices, if only slowly and with much gnashing of teeth, only to have it spring up supported by a new sponsor? Almost like why bother?
Here is another good article on Russian investment in Saudi Arabia. Money, power and influence. Did it ever really change?
Quote:
The large trade delegation, which consists of nearly 60 business executives, is expected to explore a wide range of investment opportunities, mainly in oil exploration and railways.
“Lukoil (Russia’s largest privately held oil producer) and Saudi Aramco are seeking areas of cooperation to explore oil wells in the south of the Kingdom,” said Koudriavtsev.
In January 2004, Lukoil won a tender to develop a Block A natural gas field in the Empty Quarter. Lukoil signed a 40-year contract with the Saudi government to explore and develop the natural gas deposit.
Russia’s energy giant Gazprom is also showing interest in energy projects in the country. Saudi Arabia is estimated to be tendering $20 to $25 billion worth of investment in the natural gas sector.
Russian executives are also expected to bid on Saudi Arabia’s new railway projects. Saudi and Russian businessmen are expected to hold a joint meeting tomorrow to discuss areas of possible joint ventures between the two countries. Putin is expected to attend the meeting.
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