Hirsch II:Economic Impacts of Liquid Fuel Mitigation Options

MonteQuest

This study is a sequel to the Hirsch Report which addressed the issue of world oil peaking. This current study deals exclusively with physical mitigation options for the U.S.

mekrob · Expert Joined: Dec 09, 2005 Posts: 2663

That's gotta be one of the most optimistic reports ever. In 20 years, they think we'll be producing only about 100 kpd less. And they still think that efficiency won't be eaten up by simply more driving.

Silverharp · Coal Joined: Nov 15, 2005 Posts: 13 Location: Dublin

stopped reading after it said oil might peak in the next decade or two

XOVERX · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 18, 2006 Posts: 175

Interesting article. Hopefully the Republicans will get these projects going.

Zardoz · Last edited by Zardoz on Sun Jun 04, 2006 8:40 pm; edited 2 times in total

He talks about peak in 10 or 20 years, a cost of $2.6 trillion as being on the low side, five new CTL plants per year, oil shale as being a viable option, and the whole effort still being only a partial solution.

Even with all the new jobs he talks about, the tax revenues, and the sales figures, to me this is still a pretty doomerish paper.
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mekrob · Expert Joined: Dec 09, 2005 Posts: 2663

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3678

Couple of things on this:

a. The authors think that once the decision is made to do the program, it will take three years before the first drop of alternate fuel is produced. If the initiative for this is supposed to come from the government, you know that not squat is going to happen for the next 2.5 years as it is, since the current rulers of the country are going to choose to spend the time debating gay marriage and the flag burning amendment. So, even if there is an electoral revolt and some adults are brought into the system, and even if they could find $2.6 trillion (1/4 of GDP) somewhere, nothing will get started until 2009 at the earliest, which means the first dribble of liquid fuels will show up about 2012.

jdumars

A lot of junkies die.

A lot of pulmonologists and oncologists smoke.

Many nutritionists and dieticians eat fast food at least once a month, and usually more often than that.

Many people who preach conservatism or piety are the same ones that have affairs, steal, lie and cheat.

The point I am making here is that even the most risk-informed people make decisions they know are blatantly self-destructive and/or hypocritical. With PO we're going to see this a lot. People will preach conservation, replacements, etc. but will continue many wasteful/damaging activities in secret. All of the hand wringing over finding replacements will only amount to so much hot air because the people who are in a position to enact the changes will be the last to feel the direct effects.

To pull off the mitigations that Hirsch and others envision requires a level of self sacrifice and altruism that I don't believe exists in this society. My ultra-left wing, environmental activist lawyer relative built her house in a wetland and shingled it with old growth cedar. She also regularly drives 140 miles to work.

I see the level of systemic retribution eminating from PO in almost spiritual terms. We have been warned, and ultimately salvation lies not in the actions of the whole but the heart and soul of the individual. Actions will speak louder than words.

I wish there was a way of easily describing myself as a doomer in these terms.

grabby · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 1328

Ah my condolences, that you have a lawyer in the family.
My grandfather died of cancer so I know how you feel.
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FatherOfTwo

A link to Hirsch's latest presentation (given to ISEEE at the UofC) can be found in this thread
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Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3561

lorenzo · Fission Joined: Jan 01, 2005 Posts: 2158

I have never heard of this Hirsch person. Is he someone like Kunstler?

I have heard though of the ease with which the U.S. will be able to substitute 30% of all its liquid fuel needs by 2030, simply by investing in second generation biofuels. Physical mitigation is a piece of cake here. And that's official. Not some person.

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jul2006/2006-07-07-01.asp

And if ever you feel the need to displace more than 30%, just give me a call and I'll send you a million barrels of biofuels a day from the tropics.

Of course, getting the billions won't be a problem either, because these biofuels are already competitive with oil. And if you invest in them, you make a lot of money. That's why people like Bill Gates, Richard Branson and George Soros are pouring money into them. They know a thing or two about making money. So the billions are streaming in, billion by billion, but they're streaming in.

It's a no-brainer, the U.S. has enough resources - both physical as well as financial - to displace a fat amount of oil, easily. No matter who this Hirsch person may be or what he writes about.
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MonteQuest

MonteQuest

Zardoz