Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 4 Location: Louisiana Gulf Coast, New Orleans
Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:40 pm Post subject:
pepper2000 wrote:
I don't think that could happen without a serious confrontation between the US and China.
Yes---that is I suppose is what I am expecting. It could spell trouble of Biblical proportions. World War 2 began and ended because of oil. We cut the oil supply to Japan (and they bombed us at Pearl Harbor) and the Axis ran out of oil.
Uh, China and Iran just signed a $70 billion, 30-year oil & gas deal.
Anyone wanna start a betting pool on when the US starts "bringing democracy" to Iran?
Not for a while. When American troops start abandoning Iraq, though, that probably means war with Iran is soon. Not that I'm anxious for another bloodbath.
Joined: Oct 27, 2004 Posts: 220 Location: Queensland, Australia
Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:40 am Post subject:
Been away for a small while.
What I was in fact suggesting is that China will, if power keeps going out and food production can't be kept up (it's already below self sufficient before swapping to energy crops, expensive fertilizer and losing farmers), suffer considerable internal problems. I am not immeadiately concerned about the major commercialised cities but rather smaller centres which will be starved of power etc.
I suspecxt that they will seriously push for the south china sea more or less exclusively at some point in the next 2-5 years. Not necessarily militarily. The trouble is it's still in the exploration phase and will tend to see a lot of weather disruption.
Joined: May 15, 2004 Posts: 253 Location: Southeast USA
Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:15 am Post subject:
Wasn't there rioting in some Chinese village this past week over food or something? _________________ In the long run, men hit only what they aim at. Therefore, though they should fail immediately, they had better aim at something high.-Thoreau
Peak Oil
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4464 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:31 am Post subject:
Too many people in that country.
China VS. Japan: Round 1 ... Natural Gas link
Quote:
Japan may be shut out of gas deal |ExxonMobil may send fuel to China instead - report By CBS MarketWatch Nov. 1, 2004
TOKYO (CBS.MW) - ExxonMobil Corp. has begun negotiating a deal with a major Chinese oil company to send it the entire natural gas output from the Sakhalin 1 energy development project, meaning Japan could be shut out, according to a published report.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported in its Tuesday morning edition that Exxon Mobil (XOM: news, chart, profile) has been talking to China National Petroleum Corp., one of the top three Chinese oil firms, in the hope of sealing by spring an agreement that entails building a pipeline linking Sakhalin island and northeastern China via Russia's Pacific coast. Shipments are slated to begin in 2008, the report said.
The Sakhalin 1 project is expected to produce roughly 17 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, enough to satisfy Japan's entire natural gas usage for six years, Nikkei said. The multinational project had initially planned to sell all of its natural gas output to Japan by building a direct 930-mile pipeline. The total cost of the Sakhalin 1 project is estimated at 1 trillion yen ($9.4 billion) to 1.5 trillion yen.
The U.S.-based energy giant, which leads the project, owns a 30 percent stake, while Japanese entities, including Itochu Corp. (JP:8001: news, chart, profile), Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (JP:1662: news, chart, profile) and Japan National Oil Corp., collectively hold a 30 percent interest. The remaining 40 percent is equally divided among Indian and Russian development companies....continue on @ link above....
Joined: May 23, 2004 Posts: 32 Location: singapore
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:21 pm Post subject:
There are now 4,000 Chinese troops in the Sudan to protect China's oil investments. I suppose from the rebels in the south. Sudan is also now China's largest trading partner.
Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2004 6:23 am Post subject: China bailing out?
The Financial Times had this article the other day: link
Quote:
The dollar could slide still further, in spite of hitting an all-time low against the euro last week in the wake of George W. Bush's re-election, currency traders have said.
The dollar sell-off has resumed amid fears among traders that Mr Bush's victory will bring four more years of widening US budget and current account deficits, heightened geopolitical risks and a policy of "benign neglect" of the dollar.
Many currency traders were taken aback on Friday when the greenback fell in spite of bullish data showing the US economy created 337,000 jobs in October.
"If this can't cause the dollar to strengthen you have to tell me what will. This is a big green light to sell the dollar," said David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC, as the greenback fell to a nine-year low in trade-weighted terms.
Remember when the euro was worth less than the dollar? Now it's worth $1.30.
Whats the best way to force America to do what you want them to?
Control the dollar.
Whats the best way to do that?
Own the debt.
What does China want?
Tiawan.
I dont believe China will sell off the dollar at this time. I could be wrong though, but I dont see it happening.
I see the devalueing of the dollar as coming inline with the market. It could have been overvalued due to the stock market incident a few years ago, and took this long to finally come back in line to what its value should be.
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