Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 4:13 pm Post subject: The Hydrogen economy - The physics
Honda and Daimler Chrysler have working prototypes of cars that use hydrogen fuel cells. All you need is water, and sunlight, and you have an infinite renewable energy source.
This technology will all be perfected within a decade, and it will solve the problems of peak oil.
I don't think modern civilization as we know it will collapse due to peak oil. Humans are creative. We have already invented a new fuel source (hydrogen fuel cell). More things are just around the corner.
So..when peak oil arrives, we have technology to replace oil. The hydrogen based fuel cell.
Combined with nuclear, wind, solar, coal, and other energy sources, we won't miss oil at all. Electricity will still be here. And our lives will go on as it always had.
It's a car run entirely on compressed air! How cool is that?
It only takes 3 minutes to recharge! Imagine if we have alongside every normal gas station an air compressor that can refill the air tank in 3 minutes! Not bad. And best of all, air is free! And that air compressor can run on solar energy!
Except...fuel cells require platinum. Presently, about 20 grams each...right? And platinum is expensive to extract, both in terms of price and energy. With hundreds of millions of vehicles, do we have sufficient platinum to accomplish such a transtion? (No...actually, we don't).
And fuel cells require hydrogen. Where are we to get this hydrogen? Natural gas is required for present methods, and it has some limitations that are being experienced presently. I suppose we could use solar cells and electrolysis...except...the cost to construct such facilities is a great deal higher than is the price of oil. And that drastically higher price, both in terms of money and energy, is precisely the problem represented by Peak Oil.
There's an electronic version of "Life After the Oil Crash" available - free! - thanks to the generosity of the author, Matt Savinar.
Except...fuel cells require platinum. Presently, about 20 grams each...right? And platinum is expensive to extract, both in terms of price and energy. With hundreds of millions of vehicles, do we have sufficient platinum to accomplish such a transtion? (No...actually, we don't).
And fuel cells require hydrogen. Where are we to get this hydrogen? Natural gas is required for present methods, and it has some limitations that are being experienced presently. I suppose we could use solar cells and electrolysis...except...the cost to construct such facilities is a great deal higher than is the price of oil. And that drastically higher price, both in terms of money and energy, is precisely the problem represented by Peak Oil.
There's an electronic version of "Life After the Oil Crash" available - free! - thanks to the generosity of the author, Matt Savinar.
I've read that book, just 2 days ago. I couldn't keep my eyes off it because it's conclusions were both terrifying and funny - funny because a lot of his conclusions are stark and negative and wrong. He says a lot of things that are not true, or misunderstood.
It is true that oil is the most important discovery and our entire modern civilization is based on oil but, BUT, that doesn't mean peak oil means the end of life as we know it. There are alternatives.
I've given you a few examples of technology that provides an alternative to oil. I'm sure there are more that we don't know about.
I am not an enginner so I can't argue with you about platinum. But if real engineers at Honda and Daimler Chrysler are developing this hydrogen based fuel cell technology, don't you think they know about platinum? Maybe another material can be used. These days, we can make man-made synthetic materials.
The point is, relax. Honda and Daimler Chrylser and other auto companies wouldn't be spending billions of dollars on technology that had such a major defect such as this platinum thing you mentioned.
And even if this platinum thing is real, (although I'm sure it isn't because why would Honda invest billions if it's true. They're in the business of making money and selling lots of hydrogen based fuel cell cars.) there is STILL the air car. I think the air car is even a better idea than the fuel cell. What is more plentiful than air? Just use a solar powered compressed air generator, and bingo, we've got a true bonafide renewable energy source.
The Air Car makes a lot of sense. Most of us don't go more than 100 miles per day. If we need a bigger car (SUV), simply put more air tanks in and more powerful engines, and our problems are solved.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1932 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 4:56 pm Post subject: Hope so...
"Upbeat" is a good word for this. Cheery even. Real? Doable? _________________ --------------------------------
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Joined: Jul 18, 2004 Posts: 198 Location: S. Yorkshire, UK
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 4:56 pm Post subject:
While your fuel cell idea is possible, there is a major problem: cost. It is unlikely to be affordable - both in terms of financial cost, and energy needed to implement it.
The fuel cell vehicles currently built as concepts or prototypes are expensive when built with current technology. Those little Honda concept use a fuel cell power pack costing about $500,000.
Sure, with a price that high, there is only one way for it to move. The question is whether it can fall to an affordable level quickly enough. Proponents of the technology claim that improved techniques and mass production should reduce the cost by a factor of 10x, and this seems reasonable. However, the cost would need reduction by a factor of nearly 100x to be practical. The fuel cell is not a new technology, it just stagnated because no one could make them affordable.
What about generating the hydrogen with solar cells and electrolysis? Again, neither technology is cheap. Want a home system to provide your car with 40 miles of hydrogen a day? And you're looking at $20-30k of PV panels, and a whole lot of roof (or land space); for one car. And the only reason those cells are so cheap is because they're built from the scrap from microchip factories. If the silicon wafers were bought at cost price (as would be needed for massive deployment) then you'd need to budget considerably higher.
On the other hand, the compressed air car - while less elegant, and less energy efficient could be cheaply deployed as it builds on cheap, simple and mature technology. There would, of course, be similar challenges in sourcing the energy to compress the air as in producing hydrogen. At least, however, you have the option of multiple different energy sources - including full energy independence if you're prepared to pay for it.
Just think about it. We've got thousands of satellites up there providing navigation, weather, and entertainment. These satellites...ARE NOT RUN ON OIL!! They're run on solar energy.
So the point is, if we can get satellites to function without OIL, we can also function without oil. It wil just take new ideas and time.
I'm sold on the Air Car. Seriously, what a great idea!
While your fuel cell idea is possible, there is a major problem: cost. It is unlikely to be affordable - both in terms of financial cost, and energy needed to implement it.
The fuel cell vehicles currently built as concepts or prototypes are expensive when built with current technology. Those little Honda concept use a fuel cell power pack costing about $500,000.
Sure, with a price that high, there is only one way for it to move. The question is whether it can fall to an affordable level quickly enough. Proponents of the technology claim that improved techniques and mass production should reduce the cost by a factor of 10x, and this seems reasonable. However, the cost would need reduction by a factor of nearly 100x to be practical. The fuel cell is not a new technology, it just stagnated because no one could make them affordable.
What about generating the hydrogen with solar cells and electrolysis? Again, neither technology is cheap. Want a home system to provide your car with 40 miles of hydrogen a day? And you're looking at $20-30k of PV panels, and a whole lot of roof (or land space); for one car. And the only reason those cells are so cheap is because they're built from the scrap from microchip factories. If the silicon wafers were bought at cost price (as would be needed for massive deployment) then you'd need to budget considerably higher.
On the other hand, the compressed air car - while less elegant, and less energy efficient could be cheaply deployed as it builds on cheap, simple and mature technology. There would, of course, be similar challenges in sourcing the energy to compress the air as in producing hydrogen. At least, however, you have the option of multiple different energy sources - including full energy independence if you're prepared to pay for it.
Remember when PC's cost 12,000? or more? Remember when PCs were the size of buildings?
Today, the PC is $500? tha'ts 24x cheaper than what it was when it was first introduced.
Say your fuel cell is 500,000. Divide that by 24. That comes to 20,833. The average price of a car today.
Mass production will lower costs. You know it, I know it. So why even bring up the cost issue?
If Honda and Daimler Chrysler are leasing working prototypes TODAY, in 10 years, they will have worked out all the kinks and find way to commercialize it.
Don't worry about it.
When the peak oil occurs, we've got technology to move on.
Platinum is already in short supply. The miners have not been achieving their growth targets for the past four years. As a result the platinum prices have doubled.
If the miners already have trouble meeting the current demand then how are they going to cope with fuel cells?
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: Don't worry. Hydrogen based fuel cells will be the answe
dontworryaboutpeakoil wrote:
Honda and Daimler Chrysler have working prototypes of cars that use hydrogen fuel cells. All you need is water, and sunlight, and you have an infinite renewable energy source.
Right. Now, how many people have the $80,000 for the PV panels? And the 700 sq foot of space to put up the panels?
Well?
dontworryaboutpeakoil wrote:
The world won't end because of peak oil.
The world won't end becuase of peak oil.....but the effects WILL end many lives.
Platinum is already in short supply. The miners have not been achieving their growth targets for the past four years. As a result the platinum prices have doubled.
If the miners already have trouble meeting the current demand then how are they going to cope with fuel cells?
You and I are not engineers, are we? So how can we answer this question. We can't.
But try answering this question. Why are companies like Honda spending billions on this technology if something simple as platinum costs prevent mass commercialization? Don't you think they from the outset have analyzed all these problems and have solved them?
How do you know that all fuel cells require platinum? Perhaps Honda has created a more advanced model that doesn't need platinum? Two years ago, Honda was working on problems where their fuel cell cars could not start in zero degree weather. Today, they've solved that problem and it now works in sub-zero weather.
Relax, and please let the professionals handle it. These experts have years and years of training. They know all these questions that you and I may have, and more, and they've solved them.
If Honda and Daimler Chrysler are leasing working prototypes TODAY, in 10 years, they will have worked out all the kinks and find way to commercialize it.
Very well. If you truly believe that, you should invest in the stock of those fine companies.
As for me, I've bet on the other side and have profited substantially over the past several years.
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