Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Aug 15, 2005 Posts: 269 Location: Hicktown OK
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:23 am Post subject: Re: Pushing the button
yah, Miracle Mile was definitely a panic attack movie. Although the one that affected me the most was 'threads' as far as believing it came closest to what the aftermath of a nuclear war would be like.
But to think that it wouldn't happen because we are 'too smart' or it is 'not feasible' I think is to bury one's head in the stand.
I would go so far as to say that I actually find it LIKELY that there will be a nuclear confrontation in our near future. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.-H.G. Wells
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Pushing the button
Predicting the behavior of small numbers of humans is difficult compared to predicting the behavior of large numbers. That being said...
During the Cold War, the primary adversaries (USA/USSR) were governed by rational people, by which I mean, people with a reasoned fear of their own death and the death of their citizens. They sought to avoid direct superpower conflict and they put mechanisms in place -negative feedback loops- to limit the potential for it arising and escalating. It worked, we're alive to tell the story.
At present, the primary adversaries (USA/terrorists) are governed by irrational people: people who embrace death as a route to martyrdom, in both the Islamic and Christian sense. People who believe that megadeath is OK because it leads to paradise or to the Kingdom of God. This situation has the makings of a positive feedback loop that could lead to the use of nuclear and biological weapons.
Also consider that, minus the USA, China and Russia become co-hegemons who can divide up the globe between themselves and have a lot more resources to go around. This is a tempting incentive in the event the leadership of either country heads toward megalomania.
I discussed this scenario with a friend in the military who has experience dealing with intel matters related to China and North Korea, and he said he felt it was unlikely. For one thing, China would become entangled in Russia's endemic economic problems, which China is not in China's interest.
As well, any country that attempted to use nuclear weapons against the USA would face a crushing second strike; this is a powerful disincentive. And even if you assume an attacker uses EMP weapons to knock out our command & control infrastructure, we still do have our Trident submarines, with their awesome nuclear deterrent capabilities, cruising safely below the oceans and ready to launch the second strike should the need arise.
Our safest course of action right now would be to get rid of the Bush Administration as quickly as possible by whatever route is available. The present round of scandals may help somewhat in this regard, and might even lead to impeachment (for example lying America into war in Iraq). The 2006 election may also help if it can create a balance of power vis-a-vis the legislative branch. And then if we make it to 2008, there's the definitive turning point, but it's still three years away.
The sooner we have rational government in place, the better, not only for avoiding the risk of nuclear war, but for everything else we discuss here.
Joined: Jul 04, 2005 Posts: 136 Location: Madison, WI
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: Pushing the button
medicvet wrote:
yah, Miracle Mile was definitely a panic attack movie. Although the one that affected me the most was 'threads' as far as believing it came closest to what the aftermath of a nuclear war would be like.
Is there a domestic source for this movie? I've heard great things about it, but only ever seen it available on Amazon UK.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 3:31 pm Post subject: Re: Pushing the button
"Threads" doesn't appear to be available in the US ....
-G _________________ I Have and will continue to vote against ANY politician who supports the various bailouts. Curse you for selling out our future for status quo now!
Joined: Jul 18, 2005 Posts: 105 Location: London, UK
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: Pushing the button
"Threads" was released on DVD in 2000 by the BBC but was never re-issued. I got my copy from an amazon.co.uk reseller who sells bootleg copies. It is WELL WORTH the shipping to the US. It was originally made in 1983 specially for TV by the BBC and broadcast in big fanfare. I still CANNOT BELIEVE they showed stuff this graphic on prime-time tv back then!
I watched this some months ago and it's probably one of the BEST pieces of sci-fi / drama I have ever seen. The BBC really excelled themselves. It also really shocked me, despite the fact that I knew a lot of what was in it from reading reviews and fansites beforehand. It's designed to do that, that it still has the power to shock is a testament to the power and punch of the script and acting.
What I liked most about it was that it concentrated quite a lot on two things that many post-apocalyptic dramas or sci-fi epics don't: firstly, how the button ended up getting pushed in the first place, and secondly, how all the best-laid contingency plans were a waste of space.
In the movie, a large part of the film is devoted to showing the buildup to nuclear war in the background (news broadcasts, headlines etc) while we see in the foreground the "story" of the young couple getting engaged, buying a flat etc.
It shows an interesting angle on MAD: if you are facing an oponent, and you each draw a weapon, the weapon only has power as a threat display IF one of you believes there is a chance of the other actually firing theirs. If you are both totally convinced the other is never going to fire, you can each end up feeling too confident and upping the ante more and more aggressively until you are so much in each other's faces that one of you feels they HAVE to fire, even if it means death for them too.
So both sides (USA and USSR) behave as if no-one has nukes, and then... well, watch the movie. The public get more and more agitated, but by the time they realise it might actually happen, it's too late... the film was made in 1983 for TV and is in some ways dated, but if you can ignore the period setting it's a really, really good piece of cinema.
There is a lot available on-line, also look up the old 80s "Protect and Survive" material on this site, also contains a link to a comprehensive review of "Threads": http://www.cybertrn.demon.co.uk/atomic/
I have a morbid fascination with this movie at the moment. I keep on recommending it to every sci-fi fan I know....
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 5:17 am Post subject: Re: Pushing the button
bobcousins wrote:
I think even a basic analysis shows that something more subtle and sophisticated governs people's behaviour at both a personal and international level. For example, risk aversion. When the stakes get too high, people don't play even when logically they should. The logic of game theory out of RAND said that the US should preemptively nuke USSR while the US had nuclear advantage. Fortunately, successive US presidents dd not follow this advice.
That would be a very convincing argument if nukes had never ever been used in history. BUT they have been used. I can accept that, at the time they were used, the risks of radiation were poorly understood, and nowadays a nuke looks like a much riskier option. Still, I cannot rule out completely the possibility that somebody, somewhere, will think that a nuke is the solution to their particular military problem.
Joined: Aug 15, 2005 Posts: 269 Location: Hicktown OK
Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:06 pm Post subject: Re: Pushing the button
EXACTLY.
The one hope I have is that when (not if) the button is pushed, it will indeed be a 'limited' event.
I was lucky enough to buy threads from my local video store because they were converting most of their stock to dvd, and it is on vhs. If you pm me, I will see about copying it, and mailing it to ya. It is definitely worth watching. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.-H.G. Wells
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