Dr. Bakhtiari: Replies 4, 5 & 6

EnviroEngr · Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:32 pm Post subject: Dr. Bakhtiari: Replies 4, 5 & 6

Barbara:

Dear Dr. Bakhtiari,

First of all, my best wishes for the future of your brave people.

I have two sets of questions for you:

You are an eminent personality of NIOC. Since oil is nationalized in your country, this means you must have strong connections with your national leaders, and furthermore, they approve of your involvement with the Peak Oil debate. These are my questions:

1) Why is the awareness of peak oil in the world placed
primarily on your shoulders? Why do your leaders
burden you singularly with this difficult task and then
keep it from being discussed at large? If a warning
about peak oil were to come from the leaders of one
of the world's main oil producers [Iran], a respected
member of OPEC, it would undoubtedly reverberate
around the world. Why this silence?

2) Why are you the only scientist (and eminent
personality) from an OPEC country to speak about peak
oil? Have you ever asked yourself this? I'm sure if you
know about peak oil, then your colleagues in Saudi
Arabia or Venezuela must be aware as well. Do you
know why your country is the only one allowing one of
its scientists to speak publicly about peak oil?

Thanks a lot,
Barbara from Italy

Dr. Bakhtiari:

Dear Barbara,

First and foremost, thank you for your best wishes for the future of Iran and the very brave Iranian people. They deserve it.

Secondly, allow me to correct a misconception: I am not an eminent NIOC personality. The present company officials simply detest me (all of 'them') and are doing their utmost to have me quit (after 33 years of service, mainly not to pay me my final bonus and retirement); they certainly couldn't care less about 'peak oil' --- and this is as far I can go in a public forum. I leave it to your imagination to envision the rest...

1) I really don't know how it came about that I am
the only OPEC (and Middle Eastern) expert on
'peak oil'. Certainly neither political leaders
nor company officials ever guided or encouraged
me unto this path (to the contrary). I kind of
stumbled on Dr. Campbell's work in 1995 (his days
at PetroConsultants) and since ... I have come
all this long way (thanks mainly to the Internet).
I still have to take from my personal yearly
leave of absence and find a sponsor in order to
be able attend international conferences.
I finance part of my research out of "Letter from
Tehran" income.

2) I really don't know why I am so singular within
OPEC (although I am not a very common individual,
with a eventful past). Maybe the others are told to
shut up and do so for their own good (and benefits).
I will always speak out.

Well, I hope you were able to read between the lines, because although none of 'them' speaks or reads English, someone (among the Western puppet-masters) might call 'them' to attention. Now, the seemingly apparent contradictions might be beginning to make some sense...

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Soft_Landing:

One of the aspects of peak oil that interests me the most is how the Middle East will hold up. In the initial phases of peak, higher prices should mean a temporary windfall for oil supplying countries. However, once the first peak related recession sets in (and the concomitant destruction of demand), this poses an extreme problem for those countries that derive a large portion of their income from oil revenue. In particular, for those countries that are past their peak of oil production, they may well be equally past their peak of revenue (and this is to totally ignore per capita revenue).

If surplus capacity appears tight now, one can assume it will only be more so during the playing out of peak. Just as the world can ill afford the disruption of even small flows of oil now - the market reacts strongly to every little piece of news - we must expect that during a peak plateau, this sensitivity would be even greater. Thus, the world has a great interest in maintaining the stability of all oil producing regions once peak plateau is upon us.

Now considering a proactive program of powerdown, or a worldwide adoption of the Uppsala protocol, this problem remains (i.e. revenue to oil exporting countries declines throughout the powerdown process). There is clearly a sizable risk of large scale supply disruption, and this risk will increase as a powerdown progresses. So the question is this:

Can you imagine any feasible alternative income sources for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc., that might supplement their income throughout a powerdown? Do you imagine foreign aid could be used to fill this gap?

How can countries that derive much of their income from oil survive a gradual powerdown? How can the rest of world act to reduce the risk of regime failure in oil exporting regions throughout a proactive (or otherwise) powerdown?

Is the concept of voluntary powerdown and the Uppsala Protocol not then fundamentally flawed?

Dr. Bakhtiari:

It seems that you have very well understood the implications and possible consequences of 'peak oil'.

Let me tell you frankly that I don't believe in Uppsala (or Rimini) Protocols or any other Covenant. I believe that when politicians (of any country) have their back to the wall, it is 'force majeure' and then anything goes ...

Someone who has already seen through it all is Dr. Williams, the Archbishop of Canterbury, in July 2004 he said:

"In a world of severely limited supply, it
is clear that for the less economically
advantaged countries the chances of equal
access to fossil fuel supplies is negligible"

With all due respect to the Archbishop, I would have added "militarily" to 'economically' and replaced 'negligible' with "nil".

Again frankly: all Persian Gulf countries have absolutely no alternative to oil (even natural gas is no substitute as it is not as fungible); their only hope is to use it best they can in the years ahead (of high prices), but even on that I have my doubts. Given present conditions, it will all go to waste.

You are correct to worry about the future, it won't be rosy.

I am working on a book on that very subject; if the Company leaves me a little peace, you could soon purchase a copy.....

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tkn317071:

What steps have you personally taken to prepare for Peak Oil? Are you trying any financial strategies, buying second homes in the country, encouraging your families to move or prepare for blackouts, anything like that?

Some people are honestly concerned about a so-called "die-off" scenario, where oil and gas depletion lead to serious resource wars, starvation, and possibliy societal collapse. Do you personally worry about, or prepare for the "die-off" scenarios at an individual level? Or is that over-reacting?

Dr. Bakhtiari:

You are right to worry, it is very worrying. I certainly do not think you are over-reacting.

But as the French say:
- "Un homme averti en vaut deux"
- "An aware individual is worth twice an unaware one"

And although there is still some time left before the real Crunch, it is wise to start preparing now. The sooner you start, the less expensive it will be. Only one advice, if I am allowed: never, never panic.

Personally, I am not worried at all, I would return to my Bakhtiariland in the Zagros mountains and plan the migration of our 11 million sheep and goats: I am very good at planning and logistics. On the side, I could deal in oil affairs too: 90% of Iran's oil reserves are located on Bakhtiari territory. In case of 'force majeure' and 'peak oil', anything could happen...