Simple model

thinker · Coal Joined: Jul 23, 2005 Posts: 1

Hello, here is result of simple model (2 hours of programming). I am not economist and I did not use any real data. It is demend/supply model but I was wonder how close it is to the real oil pricing graphs.

http://thinker.50megs.com/images/image001.gif

{...waiting for Aaron to upload GIF; EE}

turmoil · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:44 pm Post subject:

nor am i but here goes...

i think your graph assumes a very elastic suppy-demand relationship. up until the oil crisis in the 70s, oil use was directly linked to economic growth. Since then some inelasticity was created because of efficiency gains and thats why $60 for a barrel of oil is not devastating the world economy.

The problem now is that we are voluntarily giving up those efficiency gains with population growth, vehicle choice, and wars of attrition, therefore making oil use more inelastic and exacerbating the resource depletion problem. This applies to every energy source; oil is not the only fossil fuel under stress.

or something like that... Cool

here's some info on elasticity

http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics4.asp

Edit: maybe aaron will host the picture for you.
_________________
"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes

"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes

EnviroEngr · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:49 pm Post subject: N-Dim Math

Curious.

Rudy Rucker had a set of equations for fractal functions and Douglas Hofstadter had a model built for perturbations that looked something like that.

I should go mining for them babies.
_________________
--------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________