How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
I decided to make a little program that people can use to see how long reserves really last by calculating the consumption exponentially instead of using that stupid R/P ratio that is worth a pile of s*** :D
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 1190 Location: Zoorope
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:54 pm Post subject:
Too bad I'm on a mac.
But anyway, I keep thinking this Aaron place is packed with geniuses. _________________ **no english mothertongue**
--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.
A few suggestions:
- put the reserve in Millions of barrels per day or Gigabarrels per year instead of barrels.
- put predefined reserve value estimates (ASPO, USGS, BP, etc.)
- include the historical data on oil production that you can find on many threads in this forum _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
I am not quite sure i can follow you on this? Include it where? In what context?
Well in your application I don't know if it's really useful after all. Another approach could be to model demand by a geometric geometric as you are doing but also model depletion with different depletion rates (like the EIA model presented in Help with deconstructing the EIA 2037 peak curve?). It would be nice to have also some graphics but I guess it's a lot more work.
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