Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Based on this, the suburban household with the $70000 income only saves $560 per year at the current time.... snip
The article defines the the savings rate of .8% in terms of disposable income. So ... in reality the figure of $560 is high.
$70,000 - 30% tax rate = $49,000 * .8% = $392 (or only $32 per month )
My question is ... how does 401k or IRA contributions factor into the realm of 'savings'. For example ... I deduct 6% per pay for my 401k and the wife contribute about $2,000 a year to her IRA.
If I ran the numbers, I would say our household has a savings rate (as defined in the article) of about 4% but what about the 401k or IRA contributions?? _________________ If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2670 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:00 am Post subject:
There is no way industry could survive $10 fuel. I Could survive $10 gas, thats only double what I currently pay and I'm doing reasonably well, but trucking is already being crushed.
I work in the logging industry so I'll mention it. Right now housing is booming, they can't get enough wood and concrete and thats partially driving prices up. But the price of shipping that wood around is also greatly increasing. Right now we have logging trucks that are not running simply because they lose money due to fuel costs. They had margins of 1 or 2% just to get the contracts and now they are better off to sit at home out of work. I hear the semi trucks running the highways are in the same situation, competition forced them right to the line and now they're screwed.
the lumber market will correct but it will take a year or so for the majority of contracts to be finished. At that time they can be renegotiated and the costs should be considerably higher. If fuel keeps climbing the demand for wood may drop due to the price increases. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
The Center purchases more light refined petroleum product than any other single organization or company in the world. With a $3.5 billion annual budget, DESC procures nearly 110 million barrels of petroleum products each year. That’s enough fuel for 1,000 cars to drive around the world 4,620 times—or 115.5 trillion miles. products. The Center manages jet fuels, aviation gasoline, automotive gasoline, heating oils, power generation, naval propulsion fuels, lubricants, natural gas and coal.
If I ran the numbers, I would say our household has a savings rate (as defined in the article) of about 4% but what about the 401k or IRA contributions??
The article does not say whether IRA's are counted or not.
Secondly, there is no talk about the precise definition of "disposable income", namely, is a weekly trip to the nail salon or going to Starbucks considered a "necessary expenditure".
So, I guess I would have to ask the question: Would your family notice $100 less money at the end of the month? How about $200? At some point, most people will start to feel it, and either quit saving, or cut back on frivolity. At that point, there is a little slug of demand destruction, because the nail salon lady or the guy at Starbucks is bringing in less money. The other day on this site there was a link about the area around Dollywood, and how the booking rate for hotels this summer is way off (my recollection is about 40%), as an example.
For most people, in my opinion, this point of restraint will take place closer to $100 per month than it will to $1000: $1000 per month, $12,000 per year, 2000 gallons=$6 per gallon.
No, people will get laid off of their jobs just because gas has reached $5 per gallon. Reducing the number of vehicles on the road to 1/7 of the current level, as suggested above means a 6/7 reduction in disposable stuff, like tire usage, repairs, oil changes, etc. but in the long run, a 6/7 reduction in vehicle purchases. This trickles up stream: Fewer cars, fewer car salesmen, fewer people at the DMV, fewer loan officers at the bank, fewer people at the insurance company, less road construction and maintenance, less concrete and asphalt, less steel and rubber and chemicals. Before you know it, it goes through the whole economy, banking, financial, communications, right up to the government themselves.
Granted it wont be painless, but that's only half of it. There will be plenty of people getting big fat raises because oil companies will be rich with profits, rail companies will be booming again, utilities will be expanding as electricity demand grows to compensate, all of those commuters will be able to buy books and newspapers to read on their commute, telecommunications companies might make a profit again as telecommuting increases, many jobs shifted overseas may even come home as local roduction becomes a bigger factor in costs, etc...
There will be winners and their growth to some extent will soften the transition. At the end of WWII most workers were at factories, now they are not. At the beginning of the century most workers were in agriculture, now they are not. The transitions were painful, but not all one sided.
The Center purchases more light refined petroleum product than any other single organization or company in the world. With a $3.5 billion annual budget, DESC procures nearly 110 million barrels of petroleum products each year. That’s enough fuel for 1,000 cars to drive around the world 4,620 times—or 115.5 trillion miles. products. The Center manages jet fuels, aviation gasoline, automotive gasoline, heating oils, power generation, naval propulsion fuels, lubricants, natural gas and coal.
110 M barrel is 4.6 Billion gallon. For the Defense dept to get 115.5 trillion miles out of it they must have some super efficient cars. (115.5 t / 4.6 B= 25,108 mpg) No wonder the gov. isn't concerned about peak oil-top secret engines that the government can roll out any time. Either that or some clown put a decimal point in the wrong spot.
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