Posted: Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:21 am Post subject: Your best guess, when will it hit?
So, post a year. Not a range, but a year that oil production slumps, Post Peak starts and society starts the downhill slide, with the accompanying OH CRAP coming from those who are not prepared for it.
Joined: Jun 21, 2004 Posts: 413 Location: Massachusetts
Posted: Mon Aug 16, 2004 10:50 am Post subject:
The year we crash is the year I anticipate this one awesome PC game, that I never get to play because before buying it, the entire economy crashes.
Seriously though, let me think...
I'm going to say 2006. I suspect the next administration whether it be Bush's or Kerry's will have something seriously to do with Peak Oil.
I believe if they have anything to do directly with Peak Oil, it will be accelerating it. I would also guess that it would take time to make this happen, so not until the second year of the next Preisdent's term in office.
Also, looking at the rate at which oil prices are rising, I'd say that if it continues to climb uphill, coupled with administration involvement, something is going to happen around that year.
More troops to rotate into Iraq? Preparation for invasion of Iran? _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
I think he's doing that to take some of the pressure off the Iraq theater.......stay tuned though because they haven't scraped S. Bill 89 or H.R. Bill 125 either.
Look on the bright side man.........Nicky Hilton just got married!
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2066 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:54 pm Post subject:
Quote:
So, post a year.
2010. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
I would have been inclined to say 2008, but it looks as if Iraq won't be pumping as much as would otherwise be the case, plus price increases may reduce consumption a little.
Peak really won't matter now, since demand is currently outstripping supply, and any future production will be relatively neglible and won't be able to bridge the gap. It will become ever more apparent.
In other words, I think we're bumping the production ceiling now, in the sense that any future production increases will be more than gobbled up by increased demand, (after supply tried to catch up with demand, and didn't (now),) which raised prices, causing a slowdown, reducing demand, slightly lowering prices, which created more demand to use more supply, and so on for a little while longer (couple years). But then the bottom will drop out of supply rather noticeably, and there's no production going back up. So, we'll bump along the production ceiling for a little while longer.
Those wise enough will heed the warning.
Like when your engine's running out of gas, starts to sputter, goes a bit, then stops, sputters, goes a bit, sputters, then begins to slow.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Tue Aug 17, 2004 3:54 am Post subject:
OilsNotWell wrote:
In other words, I think we're bumping the production ceiling now, in the sense that any future production increases will be more than gobbled up by increased demand, (after supply tried to catch up with demand, and didn't (now),) which raised prices, causing a slowdown, reducing demand, slightly lowering prices, which created more demand to use more supply, and so on for a little while longer (couple years). But then the bottom will drop out of supply rather noticeably, and there's no production going back up. So, we'll bump along the production ceiling for a little while longer.
Those wise enough will heed the warning.
Like when your engine's running out of gas, starts to sputter, goes a bit, then stops, sputters, goes a bit, sputters, then begins to slow.
I think this sounds like the most likely scenario, but do you mind if i ask a question? A lot of the posts i read suggest that production will decline quickly (anything upto 5% per year), why is this ? I notice that the US production peaked in 1970 and dropped by an average of 1% per year , why would the world be different?(source: BP stats review)
As for my prediction i will go for peak oil production in 2010 with a gradual decline in production from there on. _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
I think this sounds like the most likely scenario, but do you mind if i ask a question? A lot of the posts i read suggest that production will decline quickly (anything upto 5% per year), why is this ? I notice that the US production peaked in 1970 and dropped by an average of 1% per year , why would the world be different?(source: BP stats review)
Yes but look at the countries that peaked later. EG UK, Norway, Oman. They decline much faster than the US. Decline rates for these countries are in the order of 8-10%. The countries which are about to peak now (eg. Mexico) will have very steep decline rates.
This difference is due to technology. Technology has allowed us to produce the oil much more efficient and faster. This inevitably leads to higher decline rates.
The introduction of technology has temporarily slowed the decline of the US to <1%. Now that the effect of these measures is fading the depletion is accelerating again. This year we're 4% down.
[On topic]
I don't think that the mathematical peak is so important I think there are a few memorable years. I think matters will grow gradually worse as we're heading from crisis to crisis. As the oil price rises it will start to affect demand at some point so we may never reach the actual production peak.
2000-2001 The peak for UK and Norway (This is where the problems started and the oil price started its rise)
2004 Opec has run out of spare capacity, England has become a net importer.
The next memorable events would in my opinion be
The peak of Mexico 2004-2005
The peak of Russia 2005?
Peak really won't matter now, since demand is currently outstripping supply, and any future production will be relatively neglible and won't be able to bridge the gap. It will become ever more apparent.
My humble opinion.
Perhaps. You're in good company.
That being said, I believe that Peak will matter. If demand is growing, but supply is growing slowly, then one has an inconvenient gap. But after Peak, demand will still be there, but the supply will decline, creating a much more problematic gap.
Suppose that one needs 2,000 calories per day. If one gets 1,900 calories, you'll be a little hungry, but you'll survive. If the gap is larger - say, you only get 1,200 calories - the problem is much more painful.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Tue Aug 17, 2004 4:29 pm Post subject:
I'm throwing my hat in with OilsWell. And will also comment that I don't think "THE PEAK" is what matters. There will be a peak in consumption. We may never see the actual peak in production. The earth may be capable of pumping a lot more oil--e.g. a few more million barrels a day--than right now but it doesn't matter. With consumption climbing so quickly, we're outstripping our ability to invest in new capacity to create those couple extra million barrels. The economy will tank and the consumption drop before we hit peak. At that point, we may continue to suck oil out for a few years at a lower rate and then, if new investment is put in place, the actual declines elsewhere will mean a peak lower than the previous consumption level (which was not at physical peak).
I think we've long since entered the age of more expensive energy. Now it's a matter of managing it.
I think the real question is when does REAL PANIC set into the oil markets. Or more precisely, when will consumption pass production. It seems like sometime in 2005. The economy is still growing, though has troubles, China's growth is slowing, but still vigorous. I think next year for sure.
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