How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:53 pm Post subject: How about slower economy
I think the following is going to happen. Once the world peaks the politicians are going to take measures. For example the SUV's will be extreem taxed. Al cars that are old will be extreem taxed. This wil bring the car industry back up to its feed.
Flight will be reduced somewhat.
Look, the U.S.A. is taking 25 mil barells a day. that is huge exces. If you know that the largest economie in the world is the EU does with about half of that. Then you know U.S.A. can reduce enormesly with a few simple rules.
Secondly als the EU has a lot of exces. We in the EU can also get at least 30% of the demand if we would save some.
Now imagine peak is 85 mil a day. If we all go in to save mode the world will only need 50 to 60 mil a day. With a downfall of (Campbell) 3% yearly that would leef some 10 to 20 years that there is enough oil.
Yes I think we will hit the wall and that 5 years latter a lot of saving will be done bringing making the demand half of what it is.
Als bringing back demand would make depletion slower. Instead of 3% it would be 2 or 1% yearly. So we will last until 2050 at least without big recessions.
Why I think country's are going to take drastic measures. Well they won't have a choice.
Can you debunk my theory with something else then, the politician would never do this...(they will and it will give a boost to the economy)
I do not think you will see SUV's taxed in the US until there is blood in the streets.
The US public would rather send money directly to Osama bin Laden (which is what they are doing right now by continuing the high consumption lifestyle) than send it to their own government in the form of taxes.
It's a subtle point, but one that deserves some discussion.
We all know that during the last several US recessions, a slowdown in the economy resulted in a slowdown in oil consumption. In the last few cases maybe a 2% slowdown resulted in maybe a 2% reduction in oil consumption.
However, there is a difference between a slumping economy using less oil and the removal of some quantity of oil supply involuntarily from an economy that is more or less functioning normally.
The only test case we have is Cuba, in which a 20% reduction in oil supply resulted in a 40% economic contraction.
So maybe a 3% involuntary reduction in oil supply would result in a 6% decline in the economy. That's just the first year.
In the US, there has not been a 6% economic decline since the last Depression. Not many around that remember how painful this would be.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 8:03 pm Post subject:
Cancer growing at 2% is still cancer. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
The USA Federal gov takes in about 75 million dollars a day in fuel tax on cars alone, if they were to take that sum every day and use it for tax incentives of say $5000.00 per vehical for true hybrid cars and trucks that would add 15,000 more hybrids per day incentive to the public. Right now Ford, Honda and Toyota could not meet that demand, but create the demand and they would shift production to meet it.
$5000.00 would be enough of a boost to make the Ford Escape Hybrid cheaper to buy than the standard, and you would save fuel for the entire life of the vehical. The same is true of the Hybrid Honda Accord and the Toyota Highlander Hybrid increase the mix to include trucks, SUV's and family sedans, the three most popular vehical types.
Joined: Jun 12, 2005 Posts: 4189 Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2005 6:19 am Post subject:
Ha! My SUV won't be in the street! It will be in the parking lot here! Or, maybe, parked somewhere discreet where I can let a homeless person I know camp out in it.....
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2005 10:12 pm Post subject: Re: How about slower economy
Enquest wrote:
I think the following is going to happen. Once the world peaks the politicians are going to take measures. For example the SUV's will be extreem taxed. Al cars that are old will be extreem taxed. This wil bring the car industry back up to its feed.
Flight will be reduced somewhat.
If the market economy is allowed to work efficiently why would you need to tax these things? They will become unpopular simply because they'll be too costly to run.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2005 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: How about slower economy
agni wrote:
If the market economy is allowed to work efficiently why would you need to tax these things? They will become unpopular simply because they'll be too costly to run.
-A
In my opinion, We should have imposed taxes a long time ago! why? to act proactively and make alternatives viable ahead of Peak Oil. Now it's too late, we have to implement an energy infrastucture revolution while the rest of the economy is going into a recession, who's gonna pay for it! _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2349 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2005 11:49 pm Post subject: Re: How about slower economy
Quote:
Now it's too late, we have to implement an energy infrastucture revolution while the rest of the economy is going into a recession, who's gonna pay for it!
I see this as a really critical part of the alternative equation. If the economy goes into even a mild depression it will be at best extremely difficult to generate the necessary activity required to move to other sources of energy as we need it. It seems like a large snowball rolling downhill. Once it gets going it will be hard to stop the decline in investment in anything. I see this as one of, if not THE BIGGEST, problems we face as a result of peak oil. It could potentially be the catalyst to a worldwide collapse.
We should have started a long time ago, now it's just too late.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3334 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:39 pm Post subject: Re: How about slower economy
This thread has the oldest post of mine I could find, just one day after I registered. Oh to recapture the wasted optimism of that day! _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 3:54 pm Post subject: Re: How about slower economy
I skimmed through Steady State Economics by Herman Daly yesterday. It's well worth a read if you're in the mood for lucid descriptions of viable options to our current predicament, all of which have been totally ignored for the last 30 years.
He proposes three "institutions" that would effectively share the pain of resource, population and economic contraction:
1. Resource auctions. The federal government would have control of virgin resources and would periodically auction quotas to the highest bidder. This would allow the amount up for auction to be reduced by a fixed depletion rate, while still allowing the market to set prices based on relative scarcity. Very similar to the "Oil Depletion Protocol" currently being flogged by Heinberg, and I believe there's also been some noise recently about auctioning "carbon rights".
2. Transferable birth licenses. Again, the government would have control of the number of births allowed to each citizen by awarding licenses, either one child for each person, or two for each woman (technically 2.1 for replacement rate). Licenses can be sold, traded, or inherited from childless women, and illegal children would be removed and put up for adoption as opposed to forced abortions or sterilization for repeat offenders.
3. Wealth distribution. Once again, the government would set limits, both for minimum income and maximum wealth. Each citizen would be guaranteed a minimum income, most of which would be paid for by the resource auctions, thus offsetting some of the pain of higher prices for poor folks. At the other end, a limit would be set for the maximum amount of wealth that can be accumulated.
Yes, I know, none of these have a warts chance in Hollywood, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't WORK.
This page has a brief overview of the main points in the book:
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