Lynch 1996 forecast

nero · Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:06 pm Post subject: Lynch 1996 forecast

I found this biography of peak oil debunker in chief Michael Lynch,

http://www.energyseer.com/MikeLynch.html

I had never realized that he was such a serious crystal ball gazer. From the biography it looks like he is taken pretty seriously by industry types. One of his chief attacks on the pessimistic peak oil theorists such as Campbell et al. is that they are biased towards the negative side and they are therefore compelled to consistantly increase their estimates. So I wanted to take a look at his forecasts to see how well he has done.

I came upon this presentation by Michael Lynch from 1996:

http://www.house.gov/science/michael_lynch.htm

Now I don't fault him for not being able to see the recent price increase and supply problems but I do find it curious that he seems totally blind to the possibility of North sea production declining. In the presentation he doesn't ever mention the idea that other regions besides the US may be subject to depletion. Who first spotted the impending North Sea decline was it Campbell? If so has Lynch ever given him the props?

I wonder if Lynch has revised his forecasts downward in light of the lack of significant increase in nonOPEC nonFSU production in the past few years.

trespam · Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:24 pm Post subject:

I didn't read his paper too closely yet. Just skimmed. I can't for the life of me think that he's doing anything more than making stuff up to fit what he wants to believe.

Isn't that pretty much how crystal ball readers operate? Make up whatever the audience wants to hear?

When oil peaks, and he's proven himself an idiot, we may find him telling fortunes with a real crystal ball.