Well, I've gone from being extremely alarmed about Peak Oil in the months after first reading seriously about it, to being merely alert. I liken it to the difference between hearing a tiger roar right behind you and needing to sprint for your life, versus knowing that nightfall is soon and you need to find a cave and try to secure it against tigers.

I think the changes many people here discuss having made in their lives have been positive ones -- e.g., gardening; raising chickens; learning to repair things; learning to sew; shedding debts; trying to be more self-sufficient in material goods they can make, and more frugal in ones they can't.

Is this enough? Will TS that HTF be such a horrible thing that it swamps all our preparations? Well, if it's a civilization-doomer storm we're seeing on the horizon, then probably no amount of preparation will save us. We also will need Big Luck to survive, and you can't prepare that.

But if it's "merely bad", then all our preparations will help. We are ahead of the game, compared to those who either haven't a clue, or who disbelieve there's a storm coming.

And if we're wrong that there even is a storm coming? Well, unless you've transitioned to living like a hermit, and are unhappy living that way, what have we lost? Growing your own food is healthier for you, and likely cheaper than store-bought if you're frugal doing it. Learning to be frugal will help you prepare against more conventional catastrophes like job-loss. Or it will allow you to save more for retirement. Etc.

Unless you're letting this send you into a depressionary spiral, I guess I just don't see the downsides to preparing for a "survivable worst".

--Steve

So far PO has been great.
I've stopped following stupid TV series, spend much more on educating myself on matters that interest me, have more tangible goals and so on.

If/when the effects of PO hits, I'll be better off than if I hadn't known about it.
If the effects of PO were never to happen I would be better than I was before anyway (except that I've become a social misfit in some circles and I would lack all credibility with my wife for the rest of my life.)

Just about all the preps you make for peak oil, will serve you well in the event of any kind of collapse scenario. Getting out of debt, growing your own food, forming communities, etc.. etc... It's beneficial all around. I'm not as concerned about dire oil scenarios as freaky weather, economic collapse and water shortages. (I like to diversify)

What if, as has been suggested occasionally, it simply doesn't matter? The supply of oil is only a single piece of the puzzle, particularly when we're only talking about a fuel used primarily in transport. Its so ridiculously cheap we waste it on random transportation for FUN. And then we pretend when we can't waste it any more, we're all going to die/eat each other/nuke someone/make up your own silly answer.

Its like running around with the equation ( 2 + X ) = Y and screaming that you know what Y is. Wildly amusing, terribly distracting, almost guarenteed to be wrong.

Hang in there, I'm sure it will work out.

Don't get me wrong, it was a HUGE step for us, that took a bit of adjusting to, but IMHO was well worth it in the longer term. I did have a little bit of an identity crisis in the first few months of making the move - I had always worked, had achieved a pretty high status position and my whole self-worth seemed to be wrapped up in a bundle of "what I did", rather than "who I really was" outside of the office. I also felt a bit useless not contributing financially and my self-esteem took a bit of a hammering along with it. That changed once we started making friends, and I got stuck into developing important skills - gardening, sewing etc. I feel like I am making a real contribution now, and that makes a big difference. Another big difference is the kids, and my relationship with them - it's wonderful! They thrive on the country lifestyle, and the oldest turns pale if we even joke about moving back to town

I know that if we did see an economic collapse in the next 5 years, there is no way that I am going to come through it. I am not hopeful of my job in the software industry (though most of our clients, atleast this year are middle east firms! ). I dont even live in my own country and I am not a citizen of the US where I live. Immigration can be deadlocked for a decade, that is assuming that I start the process, which I am seriously questioning the merit of with all that I am seeing now. So I dont think that sudden doom or collapse is a scenario worth contemplating, it is conjecture for the most, and beyond the ability of most people to prepare. Even those relatively better off living in the country would struggle in so many ways.

I think a timeline of 10-20 years, a gradual decline, where I get to keep my employment (I accept with periods of unemployment in the case of a recession), with high oil prices, growing awareness. I build on my savings, invest in safe assets and acquire new skills and abilities for employment in a post peak future without quitting my current career for the time being, thus being able to keep my current well paying job. I have argued on the board several times in favor of a slow decline as opposed to a fast crash, and this is what I am assuming.

I know I probably wont make it in the fast crash scenario, but atleast I know I wont be alone in dealing with it. Now I am alone in my preparations, since very few people take these matters seriously let alone prepare for it.

All I know is that the pace of deterioration is clearly accelerating. Also, PO is not the only threat; it has been joined by others that are equally if not more serious (global warming, peak everything, the health care crisis, and an economic depression).

So I don't think that any time spent preparing is time wasted. Even if civilization bides its time collapsing, you're gaining good experience that could make a difference later on, and improve the quality of your life in the meantime.

The writing is on the wall. The focus of this board is to dig out and put a fine point on the reasons why we're in for a rough ride. Peak Oil Theory got us here, but global warming, nuclear war, global political unrest, depletion of resources, threat to true freedom, makes us the doomers that we are.

I discovered Peak Oil while looking up alternative energy sources as I am a homesteader that likes the independence from the society at large. We are not preparing for catastrophes as much as we are preparing for independence. A hundred years ago the people worked harder, died younger, but destroyed less. The future of humanity could go on. Those that prepare may be able to offer hope to their community or family at least by having knowledge on how to keep on keepin' on. The die off might not happen where you are so you might as well build a future for your kids.

If we are wrong about peak oil theory, then math is wrong too, because it is a mathematical certainty. Keep that in mind. It is damn well going to happen and 25 to 40 years is not that long.

I think that big shocks are coming much sooner rather than later. We should be worrying about the next couple of years, not the next 25 or 40.

I think that when the US national average for gasoline hits $4 and for diesel hits $4.50, all hell will break loose in this country, and therefore worldwide. As it is, people are champing at the bit at $3.09. The shelves at food banks are emptying out.

Could easily happen next year, not in 25 years.

I think that some of you are missing what I see as the question in here:

What if the stuff doesn’t fly at $4/gal unleaded or $5 or $6 or $10 –

just like it hasn’t at $3/gal and $100/bbl crude as has been predicted here umpteen times?


Will you have wasted your time?

Yes, but it doesn't matter. It is a question of risk management, we have no choice but to proceed as per our convictions.

Personally I dont think stuff will fly .......even at $6. $10, I dont really know.....but I dont think it will happen this decade.

A balloon can stretch remarkably . . . until suddenly it pops, Pops.

Drive around the developed parts of America (or walk, perilously, on those millions of streets with no sidewalks) and marvel at the dependency of it all on a single imported commodity.

To assume that we can perpetually adapt to higher and higher oil prices is [fill in the blank].

What has fueled our adaptation so far? Debt . . . debt beyond all reason. We can't pay for it any longer, so we're borrowing. If that isn't a sign of doom I don't know what is.

Pops wrote:


Yeah, I think about this. How high is the ceiling? And, what metric constitutes SHTF, anyway? In some circles, clearly there are problems emerging, such as the mortgage meltdown. I mean, almost 1 out of every 8 Cleveland residents defaulted on their mortgage in 2007 so far! But, as far as oil/gasoline sticker shock goes, I'm not sure. I've finally come around to the conclusion that all hell breaks loose when there are widespread physical shortages and not a moment sooner... high price be damned. People will be pissed at $10/gallon, but they'll do it - just watch.

So, in some respects, there will be major upheavals, but in other areas, maybe no effects. It's very unpredictable, but one thing's for sure: by educating yourself, you will not be one of the clueless people who wakes up one morning dumbfounded if things come sooner rather than later.

Some excellent ideas being bandied about out there. Excellent posts all!

Whenever anyone posts about PO prep and asks about moving somewhere or doing something radical I always tell them to ask if they'd be happy in that location for the rest of their lives - PO or not. If not, then maybe its not the right thing. My long suffering spouse asked me "What if nothing happens?" when I broached the idea of leaving the city for the country. I said, "Well, our kids will have gotten a really great childhood out of it." Luckily, she fell for it.

I think things will head down gradually enough that there will not be a mass chaos and rioting in the streets and mutant ex-suburbanite hordes willing to kill me for my last potato. Things will get pretty crumby without that. If you're waiting to make your big move until you see "clear signs" then maybe you aren't going to make that big move.

That's not an admonishment, by the way. There's more than one way to skin a cat. Presuming that society doesn't collapse (and my potatoes are safe) staying in a city could work out well in many ways. If you can be flexible about things, you will have many more options about where to live and what to do.

Ok... THAT SAID, some days I think this train wreck is happening in such slow motion that I'll die of boredom watching it, but I just can't take my eyes off it anyway!