Joel,

What I'm saying is this, trying to catch these daily downs and ups in the financial sector stocks is not a long term investment strategy. That simple.

Now, if your long term investment strategy goes past 4th quarter 2008, be careful. I'm willing to go on record that the worse in the housing market will not be known until December 2008, and then, the true fun of foreclosures begins. Plus, this does not include the commercial loans starting to go bad. No one can no what effect this ongoing downturn will have in the markets, but it has moved from a homeowner and builders problem to a bank problem. This makes it a real problem for everyone. Good luck.

I think we are mis-communicating. I don't day trade by any means. All I am doing is buying in while stocks are low. It just happened that BAC made a huge leap in 24hrs and I sold. It makes sense to sell a stock that has made 17% return whether it is 5 mins or 50 years from when you purchased it.

I also pay $25 commissions in my account for each transaction, so that alone shows I am not an active trader.

If I presented myself as a day trader I apologize. I would never ever recommend people try to buy daily ups and downs. Even the professionals can't do that in this market. You WILL get burned.

joeltrout

with gold at a record high, you have to accept alot of assumptions to call putting half your portfolio into that one commodity prudent.

i'm not saying you are wrong. i just think those assumptions need to be made explicit.

1/3 of my former stock portfolio at any rate. Right now most of my assets are in CDs, High yield savings, and a rental property. I know the ETF options are rather risky, but it's still better than staying in stocks. Still, if I'm wrong I would have more time to react, since ETF prices generally move slower than stocks.

double post

Is your rental property mortgage free?

Maybe I will put some money into Persian rugs.They may be very rare some day the way things are going.
Also art is another good investment for long term.Im pretty maxed out there.

A sound investment strategy today is to assume that there will be high energy prices, a weak dollar and developing economies will continue to want cars and televisions.

Thus, American companies that sell durable goods all over the world should do okay, the whole energy sector (including alternative) should continue to do well, and precious metals and precious metals mining companies should do well. Throw in some cash and long term U.S. bonds and you've probably got a solid portfolio.

Check out the Permanent Portfolio mutual fund if you like to sleep well at night. It uses Harry Browne's investment strategy of allocating roughly 25% to equities, 25% to gold, 25% to cash and 25% to long term bonds in several stable currencies. The returns are remarkably stable, no matter what kind of crazy stuff is happening in the world.

and i am certainly not predicting anything specific. especially since it sounds like you are diversifying from your previous portfolio.

i myself have a selection of ETFs and funds of domestic & intl equities, the lehman agg, commodity resource funds, plus some gld and uso. plain vanilla conservative mix.

but reading investment advice on this board i feel like i might as well be putting it all on 23 red. in this topsy-turvey analysis, concentrated gold holdings are seen as safe. traditionally, that would be seen as a gamble.


ok, i'm going to read up on that fund big tex is talking about.

To stay out of stocks permanently is a bad idea in my mind especially after selling all your stocks right when the markets are in a huge correction/recession.

Yes there is a lot of bad news but nothing that drastic. You must have part of your portfolio either in stocks or mutual funds that include stocks.

joeltrout

Joel,

On practically every thread on this forum, your telling everyone not to get out of stocks, that your getting in and staying in. Great. We understand. Now, quit cluttering the boards with your mantra and we'll visit this issue next year.

If you notice the threads pertain to investing and planning for the future. That is what I am doing and trying to help other people. Please note that those who are knowledgable on ethanol post a lot on ethanol, those knowledgable with supply demand post alot on supply demand, those knowledgable on sustainable living post alot on sustainable living...I am planning for the future using stocks and there have been many topics started by other members pertaining to the financial markets. That is what I am talking about. The stock market has taken everyone's attention lately and people love to talk about it, good or bad, and so do I.

You have to admit this is one of most interesting times dealing with the stock markets. Oil is up, the country going into recession through housing, credit markets falling apart, and the stock market is the center of it all. I think it is something very valuable to talk about whether you invest in stocks or do not and obviously lots of others feel the same way.

joeltrout

To brighten your day...I will be out of town on Monday and Tuesday without internet access.

Though I think next week will be a very interesting time for the markets because of all the numbers coming in, Fed announcement, etc..

Look for big swings.

joeltrout

My rough strategy for the moment:

40% Foreign currencies
18% Gold
18% Agriculture Futures
18% Assorted Energy
6% Short Funds

you did the right thing.