I know this is an old thread, but I found this logic fascinating: the person is too convincing, therefore they must be at least somewhat full of it.

Like saying yes, "Mr. X was quite convincing with his explanation that 2 plus 2 is 4 but would believe the person if they at least acknowledged it might be 5."

Anways, this is a great thread Daryl as there are many of us who are in similiar situations and have not the financial ability to move out to a self-sufficient rural homestead, at least not at the moment.

Sarah C.
Sarah C.

Look up "sohpistry" in the dictionary. Read peakoildebunked.com for examples counterarguments not presented by Savinar and Kunstler.

Like the one we're discussing in the other thread about teleportation and space alien technology?

Sarah C.

Sorry, I just have to.





ZING

Very funny. You are using a deceptive argumentative tactic yourself though, aren't you? Focussing on one silly argument to discredit the dozens of more reasoned ones.

this is a fallacious argument as nothing in the peak oil debate is as simple as arithmetic.

Update:

Here are a couple more projects I have been experimenting with ref: suburban survival planning:

a. Voluntary reduction in calorie intake: It's a no-brainer that food stores can be stretched if you can wean yourself down to fewer calories. Example: 30 days of food at the typical adult consumption level of 3000 calories per day can be extended to 45 days if the calorie consumption is reduced to 2000 per day. The problem is that it is a shock to your system if you go from your current suburban fatcat lifestyle, which is probably about 3500 calories per day, down to 2000 overnight. Therefore I suggest pre-conditioning beforehand so you will be ready when the time comes. Try to record your caloric intake on a daily basis, then gradually reduce it to about 1500-2000 calories just to see what effects it has on your ability to function, etc. A good side effect of this is that you will lose about a pound a week, maybe more if you do b-c below.

b. Alternate transportation: The lesson of the New Orleans "evacuation" is that the people who were not in good enough shape to make it out of town or to evac sites on foot had a lot of problems. Therefore, to ensure that this does not happen to you, gotta make sure you can run at least 6 miles on short notice. The way to accomplish this is to do daily "survival transportation training" so as to be able to do this when the time comes. Start at a mile, and work up from there.

c. While scouting the local garage sales this fall, I came across two 12-speed racing bikes in respectable condition for $5 each. I was able to combine parts from the two to make one good one. The lesson to be learned is that the suburbian landscape is full of bountiful cheap resources, including practically free ground transport, which can be had for practically no investment except time. This $10 bike is now my "garage sale chase vehicle" allowing me to scout for more bargains at no cost except human power.

As before, if you go around talking about how you are preparing for "oil depletion armageddon" by doing these experiments on yourself, the neighbors and the significant other will think you are nuts. However, if you tell them you are trying to get in shape, they will not think anything of it.

When the time comes, you will be ready, and your pants will fit better. Worst case scenario is that oil depletion armageddon does not happen, but your pants still fit better anyway.

The only thing missing from this thread is family. Of course all families have bad apples but typically the most loyal and trusting people will be family and possibly childhood friends. I've decided to stay close to them and find out they're mind set in case of catastrophe and emergency. I've also taken in more supplies to possibly incorporate their needs.

I also think in a rapid shtf situation a lot of decisions will have to be made quickly. Maybe mobs will move to the country and look for food maybe the best place to be will be the suburbs that have been emptied who knows just be prepared for as many issues as possible on your budget. my .02

You are quite right, NTBK. There are a couple of problems:

In our local suburb, about 70% of the population lives at least 250 miles from the place where they grew up. I am about 1000 miles. Other than being a place to run to, the distant family will not do too much good in an emergency situation.

Another problem with the suburbian family is that a lot of the people, maybe up to 50%, have estranged family/divorce/blended family situations, which might cause problems, because if these people could not get along when times were good, they might have even more problems during times of stress. Also there are nagging child custody issues: How to give support to the kids but not include the psycho ex-wife and the worthless second husband. There are a lot of people in that situation.

Thirdly is the fact, as you say below, there are a few "black sheep" in every family, who might be a drag on the operation. Then there is the issue of how to take care of the elderly: somebody unable to do physical labor, but might be really useful if they can remember how to can tomatoes.

In theory, historically, the family unit was a really good, beneficial form of social organization which helped the individuals survive, pass information between generations, and have a social structure which kept people in line. In fact, modern suburbia has done everything it can to screw it up and set family members on each other. I have a theory on this which I will give if any are curious, but is off-topic here. Be that as it may, I think this is a no brainer: if there are family members you get along with, by all means plan cooperatively with them, particularly if they have skills and abilities. You will be really lucky if you have that resource.

I notice in both examples given in this topic, it was organized <government> men who prevented people from being able to do that as which would preserve them.

Government armed interference should be in planning.

As well as the good possibility that if the USA economy and dollar collapses, there are several/many nations who have "payback" to deliver to the USA, sending military expeditions / armies into USA as was done to them. Central USA seem better than near coasts.