EIA estimates 500,000 bpd spare capacity: For some reason can't reply to earlier post.

The short term outlook from the EIA says something similar to the IEA; estimating that surplus capacity for OPEC is about 0.5Million bpd.
link

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 13, 2004

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 13, up 133,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 95.8 percent of their operable capacity last week, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous week. Motor gasoline production rose compared to the previous week, averaging over 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production also increased, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.4 million barrels per day last week, up 883,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 10.4 million barrels per day. Although the origins of weekly crude oil imports are preliminary and thus not published, it appears that increased imports from Saudi Arabia and the beginning of imports from Libya contributed to the overall rise in crude oil imports from the previous week.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 891,000 barrels per day, up slightly from the previous week, while distillate fuel imports averaged 351,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 293.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the bottom half of the average range for this time of year. Motor gasoline inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range.
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels, with the largest increase seen in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil), and are near the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels, and remain close to the lower end of the average range.

Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.7 million barrels per day, or 1.6 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Motor gasoline demand over the last four weeks has averaged nearly 9.4 million barrels per day, or 1.1 percent over the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand is up 6.8 percent, while kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 0.4 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

EIA

Crude inventories down again...

link

International Petroleum Monthly
Information of Note: June 2004

U.S. Pers.Gulf OAPEC OPEC World
8,720 23,091 23,775 33,146 83,537

Worth a deep look. Everyone at Full Blast? Seems to be. SA at 9.5 mb/d reported for June. Recent reports (two I've seen) said steady at 9.5, and one at 9.65 mb/d for August.

I have a sense, not sure if it is right or not, that maybe wea are seeing "surge" capacity from some producers, and thus generally time-limited. (or fields become damaged I've read). Or maybe not, since I am not a geologist. [Don't you love equivocation?]

Also, I don't quite understand how OPEC thinks the market is over-supplied right now with 1.5 (also quoted at 2) mb/d. Perhaps oversupplied with heavy oil, maybe? Or a political ploy to cool the market? Of course, political manipulation of the market would never happen, would it? In any case, I think some reason or justification will be given for the net effect of reducing OPEC production [not to be confused with what they say they'll do] by some variaton of oversupply, etc. to given a chance to reduce surge levels.

One of the last weapons against high price in the powers that be arsenal, is release of strategic stocks. However, this would signal the market that demand has truly outstripped supply and the market would be extremely wary on this point, since it could not be attributed (or maybe it will try to be attributed) to some short-term supply disruption, like war, strike, etc.

Can someone help make sense of this? If we assumed production for August just remained the same as for June (neither rising nor falling), then compare this: Above posts says total OPEC (including Iraq) at 33.146 mb/d.

But this clip from Bloomberg and Petroligistics says OPEC 10 (OPEC minus Iraq, I think) at 28.1. If we generously assume Iraq at 1.8 mb/d, that gives us 29.9 mb/d. Kind of different from 33.146 mb/d?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=azzldyh_GtMw&refer=news_index

I know both are these data sets are preliminary and subject to many factors,, but how do we reconcile that big a discrepany? If we assume both to be correct, that would imply a fall in production of 3.246 mb/d between June and August, which I would highly doubt.

I've read somewhere that someone (a terrible statement I know but if someone has the data it would help), that said OPEC typically overreports around 7.5%, which at 29.9 (29.9x.075)=2.24 Any thoughts?

rest of article here

link


Notes-
-pumping "nearly flat out"
-shortage, what shortage? Oversupply, they say, so we'll increase capacity by 1 mb/d by end of year.
-The only way I see to truly reduce prices long term is to pump it and increase production capacity. Then political premium goes away. It's the reported lack of excess capacity we hear that's driving prices up, IMHO.
-Can someone with more insight detail the possibility of an OPEC-wide systematic price cut to be announced next week and its possible effects?
Would it drive prices down? Would it delay eventual price rise? Does it just forestall a feared drastic (as Dr. Bahktiari) price equalization? Does it delay the inevitable and reduce the warning time to transition post-peak?

(sigh) Maybe I'll guess at my own mistake...The 33 mb/d number includes NGL's? Whereas the other number included just crude?
Was the topic was covered extensively already?
Anyone??
Buehler???

Anonymous,

That would be my guess, I haven't looked at those numbers in particular, but I've made that mistake before so it wouldn't suprise me.

It's a shame smiley's away. I think smiley has the best insight into these discrepancies.

When I am looking at data, I always seek to compare time-series data from the same source. There are so many possibilities for different inclusions and exclusions, that I think the error between sources is just too big.

I'd wait for the next several EIA numbers to get an idea of the current trend... I know this means we are always a few months behind, but not much you can do. Well, if you had a spare 30 grand or whatever lying around, maybe you could buy into the petroconsultants database... But is the end of the world that important? :D

More muddled info: link

What is the Eia forecast for the price of gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas?

I read this but i don't understand a word
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Basicaly saying:
(They have accompanying tables, by the way.0

For crude oil, don't expect to see the average price go below $40 until mid-2005.

For natural gas, should rise just a little to $6.16 average in 2005, from $5.96 in 2004.

For home heating fuel, expect a 17% rise for 2004-5 season v. 2003-2004 season.

Take a look at some of the EIA projections (especially next year: Fall)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3tab.html

Overall, even tighter, but damn, any surprises and it gonna be lights out folks.

Bear with me here. I'm no doubt slow. It looks to me as if supply and demand are pretty darn close most of the time, and on a few occasions, demand is actually higher than supply. What does it mean for demand to be higher than supply?