How long until we find out what the decline rate is going to be?

When do we make a 10% decline in daily oil flow? When do we hit the first halving time?

pretty big news.

This from the weekly petroleum status report was also fairly big news ..



especially considering the fact we are in a huge recession right now

Oily? Auntie? Where are you when we need you?!

-G

What's the margin of error for yearly oil production? 1%? 2%?

I don't think there's a statistically signficant difference between 73,728 and 73,709. The gap is only 19,000 barrels a day out of 73 million or .03%.

Moreover, we're in the middle of a major recession which has slashed global oil demand. We can't know for sure what the real production rate would be if not for the current recession.



We had a pretty big dip in oil production in the 1980s (nearly 15% drop!) that didn't result in a permanent decline.

We need more data to confirm a peak. Come talk to me in 2011-2012.

I don't mean to rain on this parade, I just don't want us to make the call too early and sound like Colin Campbell.

2008 had oil at $147 and had every producer selling all they could produce. The result was and is that even with the price sky high and all economic theory on their side, the result was less than 2005.
Maybe you should become a preacher where beliefs trump facts.

The IEA says last year was the record, and the EIA says it was 2005.

*shrugs*

Call it a tie.

That was last week's report. This week the rise was 0%. Or perhaps you haven't paid attention to this thread.

I wouldn't worry. We are an inventive people who rise to the occasion and use the God-Given Optimism that has made America a Great Nation, a Nation of Believers, Doers, Actors, and Achievers. Tomorrow the Sun will rise in the East as it always has done. The birds will chirp and the garage will be collected by the good, brave people that make this country the Envy of the World.

I wouldn't worry . Go out and have a Haagen Dazs. Forget about today until tomorrow. Come Dance With me on the Endless Beach of Technical Innovation in a Bright New Sunshiny day.

Just where are my good friends--Oily, ShortonBrains, Antithinker?

Ah. There you are. The point here I believe is that oil demand is somewhat inelastic and that in time of economic decline neither the market, nor conservation, nor efficiencies, nor replacements can stem the flow from declining reservoirs.

It's almost as if we are floating in a vast toilet of petroleum with our own hands on the flusher handle. Do we yank? Or do we just enjoy the float?

It looks like you didn't click on the link. As usual.

That's almost a 5% decrease in 4 years.

Some more information you've consistently ignored who-knows-how-many-times in the past couple years:




Source

I'm being lumped with WHO??? This is the worst news I've gotten all year. *sniff* (maybe you meant Anti-Doomer?)

Hey, all we can really say is that 2005 is the date so far, and that as time passes it gets less and less likely that it will be surpassed. I mean, if TPTB threw everything they had left into one final year of "suck it all up RIGHT NOW", then that year might end up as Peak, numerically. Not very likely though.

I think the precise year of Peak is only significant because our human(oid) brains like to draw clean crisp lines and say "YOU ARE HERE." But reality is that from the perspective of the broader moment in time, it's NOW -- regardless of whether that means 2005 or 2010. Even if something came along that pushed the peak back by a decade or more (oh, ya know, something like a severe economic downturn, or an unsustainable-but-temporarily-profitable tar/shale extraction method), it still wouldn't change the essence of the situation.

And the more we try to stave it off by fussing over symptoms, the harder we'll fall. So -- bring it on!

OMG OF2, you figured out how to host images finally.

Still picking those cherries though.

Oil consumption percentage changes year to year, by region:



The decline in gasoline demand in the US is partially due to the introduction of ethanol, amounting to something like 1.2 mb/d now; plus good old garden variety demand destruction, due to the price runup and the recessiodepression, which may or may not last forever or have ended last week according to Krugman who really cares.

What was your other data point...YOY, oh right. So since the economy will grow once more now, consumption will increase, and we will be right back where we started from. Or not. "Increaseless Recovery," damn, I'm on a roll.

PRICELESS!

Here ya go TheDude, not just one, but THREE "increaseless recoveries!"

France



Source

Italy



Source

Japan


>>> Big chart of Japanese GDP growth Q12001-Q12008 <<<
Source

Sorry to confuse things Auntie_Cip, But you are right - I was referring to Auntie-Doomer....

-G

Oh, and I don't think it really matters whether it was 2005 or 2008 or if it will be 2010 - If you have read the Hirsch report you would know that anything less than 5 years of radical preparation (as a nation) is going to create some serious pain. So even if its 2015 we better bust ass....