“Time makes more converts than reason.” - Thomas Paine

the right side of the curve is what changed people in the 1970s and i guess it will have to do now also.

It's just this kind of stuff that makes me feel crazy. I read the stuff by Simmons, etc. and I feel convinced that peak oil is around the corner and the consequences will be dire. But then I see other forecasts that laugh off those dire predictions, and I wonder if I'm going wacko.

WTF! I'm not a geologist, economist, futurist, politician, or petrolologist (I know that's not a real word). I'm just a regular person trying to make the best sense out of the information available to me. I don't want to become a paranoid survivalist expecting the end of the world at every turn. At the same time, it would be irresponsible not to take some of the good arguments that suggest peak oil will occur soon seriously.

Who, what, when, where to believe!!??

I think CERA's analysis of the oil market is quite good. I just don't agree with their conclusion that meeting new demand is simply more investment. There are striking similarities between Lynch and Yergin:
1- recovery technology will improve;
2- constraints are mainly geopolitical ones;
3- peak oil predictions have been repeatdly wrong in the past so it is probably also the case now;
He does not take any chance by making a prediction of a Peak within 45 years (the USGS puts PO within 25 years).

An interview with Yegin (audio file):

Predicting the Future of Oil Prices

Cambridge Energy Research Associates said that, instead of a crest being reached sometime this decade, an inflection point in world oil output will occur sometime beyond 2020, after which production will plateau for several more decades.

CERA chairman Daniel Yergin said the extra supply of oil he anticipates is only part of the solution to relieving the stress in the energy market. He assumes more efficient energy use, particularly in transportation, will be critical to stabilizing prices.

The CERA report acknowledges that there will be fewer giant oil fields found and produced after 2010, but it argues that with new technology and multibillion dollar investments the petroleum industry has the ability to provide more than enough supply to meet rising demand for several more decades.

Yergin said the main threat to this supply expansion scenario are geopolitical uncertainties. For example, "Iraq has the potential to be a very big player, but its timing is very uncertain," he said.

http://www.modbee.com/24hour/business/s ... 3058c.html

I wish Matt Simmons would directly address Yergin's statements.

Khebab, thanks for the link:

After listening, I am more convinced that Mr. Yergin's prediction will prove incorrect.

-He states that we are more likely to be facing an "excess of riches" v. scarcity, since the peak oil theorists have claimed imminent depletion 3 or 4 times in the past over the last century...

-He stated that additional supplies, greater than expected increases in demand, will come from non-OPEC sources such as Azerbijan, Khazakstan, Angola, and the Canadian oil sands...

-He states that this is, though, the "tightest oil market I have ever seen"

-He expects such tightness to contnue for the next 18 months

-He foresees a price spike possibility of $60-$85 in the meantime.

Again, I think he's living in a fantasy world...like he's trying to talk the price down...perhaps he's also has the Saudis as a client, like I illustrated with Michael Lynch, or has short-sell interests or clients who have... It's a PR exercise, again, in my opinion, and the fact that he gets trotted out on NPR, which is not in any way currently an unbiased source of information concerning the present administration and certain corporate interests, by the way...It's a dog and pony show... He didn't even sound too convinced of his analysis himself...

Remember the March 1999 Economist cover that stated: "Drowning in Oil"?



And how they eventually ran an editorial that stated: "We Wuz Wrong"

And then ran a cover like this?



He'll be like that.

(By the way, if anyone can point me an image of that March 6 1999 Economist cover, I'd appreciate it. searched but couldn't find...Thanks.)

There already threads on this...post to those. Thanks.

Oh, and stupid monkeys, your avatar is... morbidly fascinating...

Yes Oilsnotwell, I've just seen it. Sorry. Your thread about Mr Yergin's biggest client weakens his case a little. However, Yergin may have a point when he talks about the reserves in Iraq. Again Oilsnotwell introduced an important thread about the reserves in Iraq which nobody addresses in this thread.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8382.html

Administrator please move this thread to Oilsnotwell's one about CERA

Its nuhax's thread not Oilsnotwell

Ah yes...the "black hole" numbers of Iraq...that is the one, and probably the only one...reason that this could occur. And the fact that the statement is coming from such a well-connected player adds a bit more weight to the statement... The fact that iraqi fields are currently declining because of a rising water cut, while sounding like Iraq is at max., it doesn't mean that they won't increase later on due to the fields that haven't been, and will be, developed.... Maybe THAT'S the big secret that the US doesn't want Saddaam to spill?!? Forget about the fact that the US armed Iraq with WMD, "everyone" knows that, no, the real big secret would be that the US went in for the real spoils of war....

I'll keep that possibility open, but I won't hold my breath on it.

This article is pure government propaganda. Looks like their spin machine is in full gear. They would try every trick in their book to keep the sheeple shielded from knowing the truth about Peak Oil. Daniel Yergin has been thoroughly debunked by Dr. Dale Allen Pfeiffer. Please read this article published on From The Wilderness:




DEBUNKING MAINSTREAM MEDIA'S LIES ABOUT OIL


Expect more Cornucopians to pop up in the media as they keep netting more suckers into their Ponzi scheme. I say get ready for the crash in the next 18 months.

^^The most prescient aspect of that FTW article was the intro:

"The word about peak oil has barely reached the surface of the major media, and already there are many experts shouting loudly that this is not true. As the crisis worsens, we will no doubt see more and more experts claiming ever more loudly that there is no problem at all. And we will likely hear more claims about the benefits of a transition to hydrogen fuel cells, fusion, nuclear fast breeders, and other more exotic technologies (such as zero-point energy). All of this hype may pacify people and prevent them from realizing what is actually happening, but it won't reverse decreasing oil production nor lead to meaningful alternative technologies."

Pfeiffer wrote that over 2 years ago and it is only becoming truer by the day...

Technically, these loonies could be right. If the peak has ALREADY come it won't be COMING, either soon or later!