worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Cyrus · **Joined:** Tue Jan 25, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 635

MrMambo wrote:

Interestingly enough I see that my homecountry (Norway) has one of the largest production drops over the period. We were close to 3 mb/d in 2005 and was over 2.5 mb/d in May, but in June we saw only 2.16 mb/d... from almost 3 to slightly above 2 since 2005 to now... thats pretty steep decline.

Interesting, got some links to that info?

billp · **Posted:** Sun Sep 09, 2007 8:04 pm

Quote:

When installed nuclear, solar, wind, and hydro is not sufficient to maintain installed nuclear, solar, wind, and hydro

Try when Athabaskan tar sands are not sufficient to maintain Athabaskan tar sands bitumen production.

Quote:

Typically, tar sands are produced using natural gas to heat the steam that drives the oil out of the sands. It takes a lot of gas to do this: over 1,000 cubic feet--about $8 worth--to produce one barrel of bitumen.

At the current production level of about 1 mpbd, the tar sands operations consume about 4% of Canada's natural gas supply. So quadrupling production would consume fully 16% of the supply, and completely max out the gas market. Nearly all estimates for tar sands operations over the next ten years exceed the projections for available amounts of natural gas!

Canada's natural gas supplies are running out fast. Numbers from the EIA and the NEB suggest that its proven reserves of natural gas will be gone in about eight years.

http://www.prosefights.org/pnmgas/pnmgas.htm

cheers

FloridaGirl · **Joined:** Wed May 30, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 110

The ASPO graph that PO.com frequently uses shows Deep Water oil causing a total peak of crude oil at about 2010. What's going on with Deep Water oil? Is it going to cause another peak or was ASPO overly optimistic?

pstarr · **Posted:** Sun Sep 09, 2007 11:47 pm

FloridaGirl wrote:

The ASPO graph that PO.com frequently uses shows Deep Water oil causing a total peak of crude oil at about 2010. What's going on with Deep Water oil? Is it going to cause another peak or was ASPO overly optimistic?

With thunderdome missing in action in the Gulf of Mexico, Angola headed for an oil war, and Brazil lost in a sugar ethanol fog, the chance of any deep water production before 2010 is starting to appear doubtful. I don't see how it is going to mitigate peak.

coyote · **Posted:** Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:13 am

That's an outstanding avatar, Zardoz.

{edit: oooooooops sorry pstarr :oops:

}

Curlew · **Posted:** Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:24 pm

phaeryen wrote:

As a collective, we, as human beings, are consuming and thus needing MORE OIL while due to circumstances brought upon us by the world we live in we are producing LESS OIL than the year before. Do you require any more proof to validate doomerosity than that?

BUT

While there are individuals in India and China buying new cars (probably small efficient jobs) some in the west are trading in our 10-15 yr old guzzlers for modern economic motors because it was time to renew or because of the increasing price of fuel.

I traded in an Alfa Romeo for a little Peugeot this May - because of Peak Oil.

emersonbiggins · **Posted:** Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:29 pm

Curlew wrote:

I traded in an Alfa Romeo for a little Peugeot this May - because of Peak Oil.

Did you happen to drop off your old car at the junkyard? Because if you didn't, I'm guessing that someone just purchased their first car and is adding to the overall amount of oil being burned every day.

BTW, I bought a diesel Jetta last year that gets 2x the MPG of my old car, but I don't kid myself by thinking I am forestalling peak oil or anything.

Twilight · **Joined:** Fri Mar 02, 2007 1:00 am **Posts:** 3062

Does your conservation scale?

Conservation in the West does not impress me, and talk (and evidence in front of my own eyes) around me is that the British are buying into SUVs and full-size American pickups like never before. In the case of pickups, literally like never before. You couldn't stroll into a dealership and buy the stuff that has appeared on the road this year.

The thing about oil demand in the ME Gulf, India and China is also the sheer size of population. That demand growth is only just taking off, let's wait a few years and see what the situation is then.

BigTex · **Posted:** Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:52 pm

PraiseDoom wrote:

I know its all a terrible blow to those of us who bought into the quick dieoff, but it sure looks so far like the "market will make do" types are winning the arguement. I'm cancelling my subscription to 'FromTheWilderness" immediately, summer is over, and we STILL don't have our Gorge.

Two frogs sit in a pan of water as it slowly heats up.

"I thought they were going to cook us. This doesn't feel all that hot. It's kind of like a frog hot tub really. I kind of like it," the first frog says.

"Yeah, I think everything is going to be okay. If I had ever thought for a second that they were cooking us I would have jumped right out of this pan. I'm not an idiot after all," the other frog replies.

"Me neither."

"Yeah, we're just a couple of frogs hanging out at the spa, just kicking it in the sauna, right?"

"Yeah."

"Just taking it easy, resting our tired frog bones."

"Yeah."

"Maybe we'll meet some lady frogs--"

"Sorry to interrupt, but it's starting to feel really hot in here."

timbo · **Posted:** Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:53 pm

Ferretlover wrote:

Is my reaction, to the above comments, wrong?:

production-prices: Shouldn't prices go higher and higher as production declines?

If $70-80 a barrel is enough to cause demand destruction in Africa, i.e. they just can't afford to buy it, then we have a bit of a wait until production drops enough and the price goes up enough to cause demand destruction elsewhere.

Although maybe the coming recession in the U.S. will cause enough demand destruction for the time being that we won't see the next real hike, $100-$120, for a while yet.

pstarr · **Posted:** Mon Sep 10, 2007 3:06 pm

coyote wrote:

That's an outstanding avatar, Zardoz.

{edit: oooooooops sorry pstarr :oops:

}

I finally gave up with Photoshop and got a copy of PhotoFiltre and have no trouble making 145x95 pixel images. You might see a rash of outrageous new avatars.

whereagles · **Posted:** Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:39 pm

zardoz is gonna have some avatar competition now.. lol

Chuckmak · **Posted:** Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:04 pm

emersonbiggins wrote:

Curlew wrote:

I traded in an Alfa Romeo for a little Peugeot this May - because of Peak Oil.

Did you happen to drop off your old car at the junkyard? Because if you didn't, I'm guessing that someone just purchased their first car and is adding to the overall amount of oil being burned every day.

BTW, I bought a diesel Jetta last year that gets 2x the MPG of my old car, but I don't kid myself by thinking I am forestalling peak oil or anything.

well i just bought a honda civic...my chevy blazer gave out after 100,000 miles (which means it's at the junkyard). i just increased my fuel economy by 2.5 to 3 times...i'm the happiest person in the world!

TreebeardsUncle · **Joined:** Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:00 am **Posts:** 681

Hi folks.

Heard today from someone (an English or Scottish gentleman by birth) who used to work for Shell for quite a few years in Indonesia, Australia etc, that the world's natural gas supply is about 7x that of oil. However, most cars don't run on natural gas products, but crude oil-derived gasoline and deisel so transportation is still going to take a hit. He also stated that world oil production has peaked.

g

bodigami · **Joined:** Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:00 am **Posts:** 2330

worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

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