It will depend on who you are (richer is better) and where you are living.

I personally subscribe to the Matt Savinar somewhat doomsday scenario, so you can't really trust my opinion, lol. But I do feel that no matter what happens(even if somehow magically we just switched over to renewables), it will be painful and things will be bad for awhile. Look at a few incidents happening right now:
Poor families are starting to starve in Charlotte due to gas prices and heating costs, etc.

Farmers in California are getting diesel fuel stolen from them.

The world economy is starting to take a hit from it.

A few groups that are affected the most by it are starting to get upset(truckers, etc.)

There's rumors abound about some kind of draft someday soon( saw it last night on ABC World News Tonight, the story was "Spread Thin").

People will try to adapt. Houses in the sururbs will get less expensive, houses in the cities more expensive. We'll have more public transportation. The economy will gradually contract. People will have less children, less people will be coming into the country.

If oil prices get so high that the food supply is affected, we may see more dire consequences.

I subscribe to the Matt Savinar theory too.

It goes something like this, "You live in American and consider yourself middle-class? Want to get a basic sense ofwhat you're life will be like 10 years post-peak? Visit an inner city ghetto or applachia."

15-20 years post-peak, it gets a bit harder to give specific examples.

The fact the marauding gas stealing gangs have already formed in Madera County, Ca is quite disconcerting.

When they start showing up in leather spikes and face maskes, you know we're really out of time.

Matt

I don’t see how the economy can gradually contract. The minute investors think they might lose money I think the stock market will collapse. Maybe I am just a pessimist. I would be happy to hear your views on why there would be a gradual contraction.

Here's my worry.. If the stock market goes into rapid decline - which it surely will when the masses discover world growth is over - the banking system may collapse. Afterall the entire capitalist system is based on growth without with it doesnt work.

So your money in the bank could vanish pretty quick.

If there is a shortage of food in the cities (likely if there is oil rationing) rioting will be a huge scale. Will the cities empty into the surrounding countryside?

In the UK we had petrol blockades and civil disorder just because the the government put fuel tax up. Cant imagine what would happen if fuel was rationed!!

Law and order would break down quickly too although I guess the army might be called in to control things - so bang goes your civil liberties.

In short... Mad Max

I will give my "condensed" version of a post-peak future, instead of writing for the next 5 hours. Here is how I believe it will go:

Immediately after the news is made public that maximum oil extraction capacity has been reached by OPEC, this will finally mean that the media has admitted that Peak Oil has already happened. Due to the nature of the media, they will try and downplay the issue by offering the public the view that they want to hear. This view will be of a "non-issue", where the media will have on multiple "experts" stating that petroleum is not a necessity to our modern way of life, and plenty of "superior" alternatives exist for propelling our modern industrialized society. The general public, believing anything that the media feeds them, will believe this "non-event" perspective. For approximately 7-8 months, news of the "renewable economy" will absolutely deluge the public in order to convince them that this is a non-issue.

However, when the price at the pump begins to increase noticeably, the public will suffer from sticker shock as they are doing now, but will not connect anything to it relating to Peak Oil. After all, the public has been so deluged by petrol-propaganda at this point that any logic in the area of the implications of Peak Oil will be very hard to come by. As the prices continue to rise without abatement, the public will finally begin a massive uproar about the insanely high gasoline prices. Fuel conservation measurements will begin to take effect, as the sales of SUV's, and other gas guzzlers plummet. I forecast this will happen when Gasoline prices nation wide average above $3.00 per gallon. I predict this to happen between 12-15 months of the public announcement of Peak Oil.

As the fuel prices continue to rise, so do the cost of other goods that are either directly produced with oil, (such as plastic products and fertilizers), and items that are transported with petroleum consuming vehicles, (virtually everything). As the inflation rate continues to sky rocket out of proportion comparative to wages earned, the purchasing poser of the individual is drastically reduced. Soon, many people will be forced to choose between either fueling up their vehicle to go to work, or to pay the rent. This situation would be similar to what many un-insured elderly people are now experiencing with their prescription drugs. Most people will choose to pay their rent instead of fueling their vehicle. Due to this, the ability of these people to commute to their workplaces will be inhibited by lack of fuel. A temporary solution is found by carpooling with other people, and making use of public transportation if it is available. Eventually the scarcity of oil will force the governing bodies to enact a fuel rationing program similar to what was seen in the 1970's, or during WWII. However, unlike the last few times, this time the rationing will not end, and prices for goods will not return to previous levels. I predict this stage will happen 15-22 months after the announcement of Peak Oil.

However, after a while, not even car pools and public transportation are running regularly anymore due to not being able to afford fuel to power the vehicles. As the options for getting to work decline, people are either forced to resign from their jobs, or get fired. This results in a massive unemployment ratio not seen since the 1930's during the depth of the great depression. The massive unemployment rate will place incredible strain on state employment agencies as more people than ever are looking for work, but the demand for employees is just not there. These unemployed individuals being unable to find work, and will be forced to sell personal items to pay for their bills. Most of the goods attempting to be sold are of little use to anyone, as they are mainly "high ticket" or electrical devices that nobody can afford to purchase or even use anymore due to the collapsing economy. As many of these items are not purchased, the individuals start trying to sell their personal furniture to attempt to make some money to pay at least their mortgage/rent if no other bills. Because of the amount of people unable to pay for their electrical, water, and sewer bills, the average city soon resembles that of Caracas, Venezuela, or other 3rd world cities. Soon, nobody will be able to even pay their mortgage, forcing many individuals out into the streets of the cities. As the homeless population continues to rise, the crime rate rises exponentially. Law enforcement and food lines are beyond overwhelmed, as a greater percentage are now homeless, than those who have fixed established residences. Due to increasing fuel prices, and increasing crime, shipments of foodstuffs completely halt. As the food supply available decreases dramatically, hoarding is rampant, and the grocery stores are empty. Due to lack of sanitary conditions, plague, cholera, salmonella, botulism, and other diseases are widespread, and eventually kill half of the population. Corpses are burnt to dispose of them, as there is simply not enough ground the bury them all in. I predict this stage will happen 22-30 months after the initial announcement is made.

As food becomes increasingly poor in quality, and scarcer, food riots soon ensue. These riots are very widespread, as every city and suburb is affected by the exact same situation. These riots are over the crucial element to life, that element is food. The situation has gotten so bad, that a person is willing to kill for just a bite to eat. Eventually, the people of the city will have killed off about 1/3 of the city, and stripped the cities of absolutely anything that is edible, and even some items that are not recommended to be eaten by humans. First, people try "food recycling" where they literally eat their undigested remnants of their fecal matter. Soon this is not adequate nutrition, as they are just reprocessing already processed foods. Soon the situation gets from bad to even worse, and a mass exodus of people start to flee the city into the surrounding countryside in search of food, and clean water. The first of the refugee city dwellers are absolutely amazed by the abundance of clean water, (relative to what they had been drinking anyway), and adequate supply of food and game. I predict this stage will happen 30-48 months after the initial announcement of Peak Oil.

As the fields are harvested prematurely, and all wild game is hunted to the point of extinction, the supply in the countryside eventually dwindles to the point where the refugees are forced to try and overthrow local farmers to get their food supply, as they have exhausted the cities, and all naturally occurring vegetation. Farmers, ranchers, and other individuals kill some of the individuals trying to take their crop for their own consumption, but eventually they are killed themselves because of the sheer onslaught of refugees. Small towns have become fortresses, and have come to the point of killing unknown individual outside the gates of the town. A "Take No Prisoners" policy is absolutely crucial to the survival of the small towns, so it is employed. As rouge bands try to overthrown the township, many of the people attacking are killed, but some towns do eventually fall, while other townships remain strongly fortified, and secure. I predict this stage will happen 48-60 months after the initial announcement of Peak Oil.

As the resources are far inadequate to feed the desperate band of starving refugees, massive starvation begins to take root. This starvation only leaves 1/3 of the population that is left intact. Due to this massive die-off, corpses lay the earth wherever. Since everyone is starving, no effort is made to dispose of the corpses. The dead just lay wherever they fall. As a result of this massive starvation, some corpses are made into food for the living. Not many people do this, as they still consider cannibalism out of the question, and would sooner join the dead. As a result of not disposing of the remains, 1/4th of the population is killed from contracted diseases. I predict this will happen 60-84 months after the initial announcement of Peak Oil.

Soon, the food supply begins to be adequate so support the remaining population, and the deluge of decomposing bodies has ended. Since the remains of the people have been absorbed by the earth again, the ground for the next few years experiences an abnormal rate of growth due to the many nutrients being added to the soil. This produces an extraordinary crop for the next 2 years, allowing the remaining population to feed themselves adequately, and begin constructing small, low-population towns. As these towns grow, and the fields are starting to come back, mankind finally begins to gain some foothold again. Life resembles that of the mid-evil period; only some of the modern knowledge is retained. This modern knowledge is used to re-discover balanced existence. The population is finally stable again, and permanent townships begin to form. Food exists in enough quantities for everyone. I predict this will happen 84-110 months after initial announcement of Peak Oil.

As society has re-established its self, people begin to venture into the hollowed out remains of the once great cities to see what can be placed to use for their new life. Due to the initial problems, little of what once was still remains. However, some uses for the remains of the old cities are found. People regularly make ventures into the abandoned cities to strip mine what they can. Many of the materials are either melted down to produce usable items necessary to the new agrarian lifestyle, or are simply moved, and used elsewhere. Many items do not have to be modified, as old car trailers can still be horse drawn, and many of the tractor implements can also be horse drawn. Bicycles provide a more efficient method of transportation than the horse does, and the bicycle can make use of the old abandoned highway infrastructure, while a horse cannot fully. The roads begin to be used again, but not for moving motorized vehicles, but as a massive network of pastures, and bicycle mobility. The bicycle is seen as the fastest way to travel long distances, as it can take use of the infrastructure to maximum capacity with speeds almost up to the "speed limit" of 60 MPH. Nobody has gone 60 on these roads for at least 7 years, and no motorized traffic has traveled in 5 years. When looking at an old freeway, it appears to me a massive raised prairie. Nature has reclaimed what man paved over in the early 1950's, and it is in a state of balance. Humanity has reached a state of balance with the environment, and all concerns are local. Nobody knows what is going on 100 miles away, let alone 10,000. Travel is long and difficult, and most people never travel more than 50 miles away from where they were born. I predict this stage to happen 110-forever after the initial announcement.

Not a pretty future folks. If you make it past the famine, disease, riots, and murders during the transition period, you will enjoy a happy, safe life. The only problem is getting past this stage into the stage of sustainability.

I really need to stop coming to this site. It depresses the hell out of me and makes day-to-day life very difficult.

If the above happens after we hit Peak, I think suicide is the way to go. I don't think I could face life that way.

So, tell me....when will we see this. 10 years? 5 years? 15 or longer?

So glad I do not have any children.



JR

JR, except for the "Official Annoncement" look's to me like we could be somewhere in para. 2 or 3 of K's scenario.

Of course I could be wrong.

I think you left out the period of martial law internally, while war rages across the globe.

Initially conventional resource & border conflicts escalate until someone pushes the button. Other nuclear powers are sure to intervene, and a limited nuclear war ensues. It all depends on who goes first, and who responds of course, but at the point where any invading force breeches US boundaries, including a nuclear detonation on US soil, the gloves will come off and the world will change virtually overnight.

The last war on US soil was long ago, and generations of Americans have little concept of living through actual war. While it's true America has suffered the effects of foreign wars like WWII or Vietnam, that is quite different than living in the combat zone itself. In fact the last time a foreign power invaded a US state (Pearl Harbor), the US ended the conflict by deploying nuclear bombs.

The world knows the US & Americans mostly through it's media and entertainment industries. I can well imagine the image much of the world must have of America based on it's entertainment products alone. The American experiment is complex in design, and even more so in practice, and with a century of relative prosperity behind it, is socially unaccustomed to the conditions of life in other places around the world.

The US has launched one of the most intensive international campaigns in history post 911. And as bad as that day was for America, it only lost a few thousand people. Can we imagine America's reaction were a major city to disappear in a nuclear fireball? Or a score of cities? While many successful reductions in nuclear arsenals have occurred these past years, it would be naive to underestimate US military capacity, especially it's nuclear deterrent. Any serious exchange would turn hundreds of places on earth into glass in an instant, and any doubts about American response to threats against it's homeland will disappear.

So let's add a potential nuclear conflict to the growing list of post-peak conditions.

Hello, all. I'm new here.

If it comes to nukes, all bets are off. I don't think we can prepare in advance for that with any hope of more than short term survival. There's no such thing as a "limited" nuclear war. That said, I do think that continued war is very likely, especially if the current US administration stays in power. Iraq is just the first step in securing control of the remaining oil. Why do you think we have bases in Saudi Arabia and the oil rich former Soviet countries, not to mention military adventures in Central and South America? I have children approaching military age and that concerns me the most right now.

Re k_semler's post: I don't think people will have to wait until there are transportation fuel shortages to become unemployed. Think about how many industries are dependent upon cheap energy. What's going to happen to the airline industry if fuel costs continue to rise? There are a lot of jobs that will disappear there, and not just the airlines themselves--food service, tourism, airports, maintenance and replacement parts, etc. What about retail goods? What'll Wal-Mart do when it can't get all those cheap goods from Asia and Africa? What about what's left of the steel industry in the US? Plastics, paper, medicines, imported food, construction materials, etc. etc. Just the tip of the iceberg. Think about your own job--how much of it depends on the availability of cheap fuel, let alone abundant supplies? I read somewhere that unemployment was at 40% during the Great Depression. That's going to look good in the near future. The people who survived the best during the '30s were farm families. At least they had the means to feed themselves with a little left over to trade for what they couldn't make themselves. And don't expect to last long with only your nuclear family--you're going to need all the able bodies you can get. And don't expect to escape the marauding hordes by hiding in the wilderness. They'll find you and they'll take whatever you have of value. There's strength in numbers. Better start convincing your extended family and close friends to join your "tribe".

Still, I don't think it'll get that bad at least at first. There will still be a government (though whether that will help or hurt I'm not sure), we still have a lot of resources to draw on, people will conserve as prices go up and somehow manage to get by like they did during the Depression. We'll be poor but I don't think it'll be complete anarchy for a while--assuming the nuclear scenario doesn't happen. It will be a lot worse in the Third World. We will probably be forced to defend our southern border. Of course if the Ice Age scenario happens, we may be invading Mexico!

Just a quick comment on K semler's analysis - although I agree generally with the events, it is very difficult to predict the timetable. In the first stages of decline, the economy ( or lack of it ) will be where our fearless leaders attempt to direct the general public's attention. This will not be all that difficult as the mainstream media is under the direction of surprisingly few corporations. How long this lasts depends on how steep the right side of the Hubbert curve is when speaking about available world wide oil. Until we get the real data out of Saudi Arabia and other major producers, we do not really have a hope of predicting the rate of decline. Matt Simmons is likely correct when he says that we won't know the actual peak until after it happens. So you could be correct in all this taking only ten years to play out, but my gut feeling is it will be longer and more painful.
Another wildcard thrown into the mix is whether a significant amount of people recognize what is happening. How many people would it take to panic and bring the stock market / banking system into chaos in a rapid fashion ?

Very good point. I'm an engineer employed by a state DOT. A lot of our funding comes from fuel taxes. Less driving means less funding. A lot of our budget goes for petroleum products (asphalt, fuel, etc.) - which make up a huge portion of your average highway project. And as people drive less, there will be less work needed on our transportaion system. I'm not sure how long my job will last, post-peak. After all, will people who can't afford cars or fuel for them want to pay taxes to build or maintain highways?

FWIW...this week, we got a memo about steel prices. We already have a built-in "adjustment" for fuel and asphalt prices. (Back in the '70s, when the prices spiked, contractors went broke because they bid without expecting such large increases, so now we give them an adjustment to take care of that situation.) Well, now we're doing the same thing for steel. According to the memo, the reason is China. Their economy is booming, plus they're doing massive construction in Beijing for the Olympics. They're using so much steel that the prices are driving contractors to their knees.

Still...I don't necessarily believe a doomsday scenario is inevitable. Possible, maybe even probable, but I still hope for a reasonably smooth transition. It will be brutal, economically, but maybe civil order will remain.

Some people think Americans will suffer the most, because we use so much energy. But I think that could be an advantage. Because we are so profligate, there's a lot of room to cut back. We make people wear wool suits in the middle of summer, then air-condition office buildings to artic temperatures. We plant huge green lawns in the desert, then have to water them with water pumped from miles away. We feed our pets better food than many people get.

I do expect our society to become more totalitarian. Food will be rationed. People's electricity and water usage will be closely monitored, and people who use too much will be fined, maybe even imprisoned. Perhaps the unemployed will be put to work on new kinds of public service projects, such as building nuclear reactors and mining uranium. The cities will empty, since they're pretty unlivable without steady electricity.

People will turn against immigration, and we'll try to seal the borders. Even legal immigrants may suffer a backlash, as people realize part of the problem is there are just too many people. Perhaps we'll enact a China-style one-child-only policy. Certainly, life will become cheaper. We'll let severely premature babies die, rather than paying 1 million a month to keep them alive. Very expensive procedures such as organ transplants may also fall by the wayside. The government will offer free abortions to all, rather than refusing to pay for them as it is now. A lot of people will die of things they could survive, because health care isn't where society will want to put its money.

It ain't gonna be pretty, but maybe it won't be total anarchy, either.