North sea - 17 (!) Percent decline for the year

Taken from the front page of peakoil but worth talking about. That is a massive 17 percent decline. That is incredible dont you guys think? I thought even the worst estimates put it at about 7-10%?

They say they can reduce the decline to 7% per year but i wouldnt hold out all that much hope unless they can find a lot of very large fields which they arent.

If this is the usual decline in these type of fields, then norway will soon be hitting a big decline too and they are a significant exporter still.

It would appear that we may well hit peak production this year given this evidence.

North Sea is around 6 million barrels per day i believe?? So you cant base peak oil on that

Norway is already declining. (oil)
Gas production is still going up.

The thing is, the north sea was recently a fairly significant exporter of light sweet crude - surely this will have a big impact on the availability of the 'good stuff' - given that saudi has no light crude left to expand and no one else has either, except parts of africa as i understand it.

i was kind of making a wider point that previously significant oil producing areas such as the north sea are now in a very large decline and more countries are joining the importers list.

the faster than expected fall of the north sea will have an impact on the peak as it will require more oil output to make up for this loss.



Its SCOTLAND's oil not ENGLANDS!!!! Wihout scottish oil, england would be poverty stricken... unfortunately, the dirty english have plundered our scottish oil wealth and gathered it to themselves in london. bastards!!!

Leaf,

why is UK in the worst situation in Europe? Their population is not very much larger than it was during WWII when they managed to feed themselves. And they still have coal don't they? And a population that is very good at gardening, even if it is predominantly urban. Distances to services is usually short, so walking and bicycling are real options for most people. So why do you think that UK will have the most problems?

Nocar

Leaf just doesn't like Britain...It's in no worse position than anywhere else. Although it would be a huge mistake to start airport expansion and road building at this point, we need some long term thinking.

Anyway, get your laughing gear around this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm

wow ... the bbc are really putting some weight behind the peak oil story. this is good news.

as for the UK being a bad place post peak, i cant see it being much worse than any other place. i think scotland will be better off than england though, as we do still have a lot of empty land in scotland which can be used for farming, and scotland is pretty good for renewable energy.

im mainly worried about the gas supplies at present though - i have a house running on natural gas and i NEED gas..>!

I suspect islands in general are likely to be bad places to be when peak oil hits. They tend to be densely populated, dependent on imports. And if something goes wrong, it's hard to move. (Though I suppose there's always the Chunnel, now.)

Did you see that article in the ASPO newsletter, called "Life After Oil"?

http://www.peakoil.ie/newsletters/521



So, to maintain the population without oil, even at a level of grinding poverty, nine out of ten UK residents has to die or move.



60 million to 2 million? Yeek.

We're hideously over-populated in England. And this is without taking into account any future immigration that doesn't look like stopping. We also have some of the highest prices anywhere in the world.

back on topic that is a huge decline, and if they propose to decrease it with more efficient drilling, that will just increase deline in the future.


"It's not Englands' it's Scotlands oil."

Yer sorry about that, we do have a history of this sort of thing.

Scotland is England's.

Without the English, the scots would be still living in African style poverty.
Mel Gibson sacked Carlise. That was about it.
England sent in the midges to test the kilt
Scotamd is useful though for goverment experiments of one kind or another The Scot elite are handsomely and historically paid off by the English to keep the tossing caberers in check and they do so admirably.
It was/is the Scots who sold out the scottish people. Criminal really but money talks

KevO

Leaf, why should UK feed itself??? It will import food as much as it does today, from countries, that are more favourable for growing it..
Whole agriculture/transport industry is consuming only miniscule part of oil, most is personal transportation. There is nothing that will stop food transports. Besides, food was being transported around en masse even in the very beginning of 20th century, market was globalized even back then before oil (two world wars put a stop on globalization process).

Imo you are living in one of the worst countries post peak - Ukraine, countries with fragile goverments and dependance on energy-intensive heavy industry wont do all right imo..

That's it leaf you have convinced me ! We are all gonna die!!!

UK production - 1.9M bpd.
Norway - 3.3M bpd.

Oil Production Figures

The reason for the dramatic decline is modern technology. You see, technology is "saving" us!

London Bastard.