Dreamtwister wrote:
This is a great idea. Let's see if we can fill in the data. I'll update this post as corrections are added.
Dreamtwister wrote:
1. Ghawar Unknown
Ghawar flushed out some 6.5 MMbbl/d in the 70's, 5 now. But of course, aramco says it's a controlled production limitation to extend reserves life, not a decline.
Dreamtwister wrote:
2a. Burgan
CONFIRMED DECLINE ~14% (
Source)
Yep. Accoprding to some sources, the three main reservoirs will be filled with water by 2010-12, and production will crash.
The field was somewhat damaged by the uncontrolled pressure drop in 1991 (when the iraqis set fire to the wells)
Dreamtwister wrote:
2b. Cantarell
CONFIRMED DECLINE ~14% (
Source)
Yep. It's a unique field, it's reservoir structure is a meteoritic crateer, probably the meteor that killed dinos, so it took everyone by surprise.
N2 injection worked great to double production, but didn't increase the ultimately recoverable oil volume. It just depleted the field increadibly fast.
Dreamtwister wrote:
3. Bolivar Coastal Unknown
Massive water injection and infill drilling to keep production roughly constant. Note bolivar coastal is not a sinle field, but a cluster of fields, the first of which was found in 1917.
Dreamtwister wrote:
4. Safaniya-Khafji Unknown
5. Rumaila Unknown
Was damaged by inadequate exploitation at the end of hussein's reign. Kirkuk and Rumaila, together, gave 87% (!) of cumulative iraqi production to date, they are severely depleted but other iraqi fields can provide - it seems iraq have 4 fields of more that 5 Gb each that have been little or not exploited : East Baghdad, Majnoon, Um Nahr and West Qurna. They all should be added to this list and would make it look a bit less gloomish.
Dreamtwister wrote:
6. Tengiz
ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE (
Source)
Yep, but it's very high-sulfur oil.
Dreamtwister wrote:
7. Ahwaz
CONFIRMED DECLINE ~64% (HOLY CRAP!) (
Source)
64% it cumultive decline since peak i guess. The five largest field in Khuzestan (SW iran) each peaked near, at, or slightly above 1 Mb/d (not simultaneously). Now the collectively produce 1100 kb/d. The Iranians are building a HUGE gas pipeline to bring natural gas for the North Dome/South Pars fdield there, for enhanced oil recovery. But this will consume immense amounts of gas, through much of it may be extracted again later (after the end of large scale oil production).
Dreamtwister wrote:
8. Kirkuk CONFIRMED DECLINE Need Source
Kirkuk was damaged by bad practises in the recent years, even more than rumaila. They reinjected gas-stripped crude oil, because they needed associatedc gas for power production but couldn't export the crude. They injected too much water, and pumped oil too hard, creating early water breakthoughs at some points. They even reinjected excess refinery products !
These bad pratise may have damaged the field forever.
Dreamtwister wrote:
9. Marun
CONFIRMED DECLINE (
Source)
10. Gachsaran
Unknown11. Aghajari
CONFIRMED DECLINE (
Source)
same as ahwaz.
>>> 11b Shaybay
>>> 11c Manifa
these saudi fields should rank here, they have some 15 Gb each.
Manifa is shut in and have not been much exploited. However, its vanadium content make its oil very difficult to use.
Shaybah is producing 500 kd/d since 1998. It could maintain this plateau untill 2050. But they will double the output, they need to compensate decline in other fields.
Dreamtwister wrote:
12. Samotlor CONFIRMED DECLINE ~ 9% (Simmons' book IIRC)
It is producing 300 kb/b, 10 times less than in the 80's. But it's still the largest producing russian field. Note it was overpumped by the soviets.
Dreamtwister wrote:
13a.Prudhoe Bay CONFIRMED DECLINE ~11% (Multiple sources)
450 kb/j, vs 1600 in the 80's. Dying. May have a second life as gas field, the gas dome have some 30TCF.
Dreamtwister wrote:
13b. Kashagan
ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE (
Source)
Yes, not yet exploited, perharps the largest intact conventionnal oil field in the world. It should produce 1200 kb/d in 2015, since burgan will probably have decline a lot before that, it may then be the 2nd largest producing field in the world, after Ghawar.
Not easy to exploit : very deep, high pressure, high sulfure content.
Dreamtwister wrote:
14. Abqaiq I don't know, but have you seen the cross section? It's all water!
73% of original reserves in this field are gonr, accordint to aramco itself. Production is rouglhly half its peak.
Dreamtwister wrote:
15. Romashkino Likely decline
Yes. Discovered in 1942. Dying.
Dreamtwister wrote:
16. Chicontepec Unknown
Very little production to date. But it's very difficult oil, very heavy, at the fringe of
conventionnal oil.
Dreamtwister wrote:
17. Berri Unknown
In decline, according to simmons, it may end up been exploited as a gas field.
Dreamtwister wrote:
18. Zakum Unknown
Additionnal production possible, according to national oil company
Dreamtwister wrote:
19. Manifa Unknown
Shut-in. additionnal production likely. lots of vanadium.
Dreamtwister wrote:
20. Faroozan-Marjan
Unknown21. Marlim, Campos
CONFIRMED DECLINE ~8% (
Source)
Yep. Deepwater. Deepwater fields are not huge (only 3 or 4 exceed 1 billion barrels) but are exploited at insane depletion rates, often more than 10%.
So while deepwater basins add lot of production in the near term, they will bring huge decline in the future - worst than the north sea.